2019 State Meet Predictions

RunWV Predictions
Class AA Boys

Class AA Boys Individual Event Predictions

100 M 1. Sebastian Spencer Weir
2. Tanner Faulkiner Philip Barbour
3. Jordan Coon Roane
4. Quincy Dameron Weir
5. Jacob O'Dell Nicholas
6. Isaiah Johnson Bluefield
Spencer set a WV All-Time Best earlier this year and has at least five runs that are faster
than his brother's State Meet Record (and four faster than the AAA State Meet Record). He
has the top time in the field by over half a second. Faulkiner has three runs under 11.15.
Coon has four under 11.25. Dameron has three under 11.30. O'Dell had four under 11.40.
Johnson has a pair under 11.40, both at his Regional.

200 M 1. Sebastian Spencer Weir
2. Quincy Dameron Weir
3. Jordan Coon Roane
4. Tanner Faulkiner Philip Barbour
5. Mason Kimbleton Elkins
6. Jacob Neal Shady Spring
Spencer is again the clear favorite with a top time over 0.7 seconds ahead of the field and
four runs under 22 seconds. I struggled with the next three. I've changed them several times,
but I ended up with Dameron in the 2nd spot. He has the 2nd best time and was 4th last year.
Coon was really strong at the Gazette Relays under this format. Faulkiner beat Dameron at
the Regional. All three have a full series under 23 seconds. Kimbleton has three runs under
23.40, and his best three runs have come in the last two meets. Neal has four runs under
23.40 and a top time well under what Kimbleton has ran.

400 M 1. Phillip Englund Winfield
2. Hayden O'Dell Winfield
3. Michael Garrett North Marion
4. Isaiah Valentine Shady Spring
5. Terry Massey Bridgeport
6. Kyle McCarthy Bridgeport
Englund has only ran the open twice, but that's two of the top four runs in Class AA this
season. O'Dell has the top time in the field, but that came back on 3/30. Garrett has three
runs under 51.70. Valentine has a pair of runs under 51.80 and is the defending champion,
so I was afraid to slot him lower than this. Massey has three runs under 51.50 and four under
52, so he's probably getting the shaft in these picks. McCarthy has the next best series.
In all, we have 8 that have been under 52 seconds, so there could be a lot of movement.

800 M 1. Aaron Withrow Winfield
2. Tavian Richardson Fairmont Senior
3. Michael Garrett North Marion
4. Noah Ward Philip Barbour
5. Luke Wilson Point Pleasant
6. Seth Earnest Keyser
Withrow dropped a 1:55 at the Cardinal Conference meet and has four runs better than anyone
else's best. Richardson is the only other one to have been under 2:00. He dropped the 1600
to focus on this, so he'll make a run at it, and the win for Withrow isn't a given. Garrett
has a 2:00 on his resume and has the speed to be a factor. Ward has three runs under 2:04.
Wilson has a pair of runs under 2:04 and has shown he can do it after a hard 1600. Earnest
has come on in the final two meets and is the only other competitor to have been under 2:06.

1600 M 1. Aaron Withrow Winfield
2. Luke Wilson Point Pleasant
3. Matthew Scheneberg Winfield
4. Ethan Kincell Fairmont Senior
5. Noah Ward Philip Barbour
6. Tyler Hayes Fairmont Senior
Withrow has the top time in the field by over 10 seconds and three runs under 4:20, including
a pair that are faster than the current State Meet Record. Wilson has the next best time
by almost 6 seconds and is the only other one to have been under 4:30. He also has four runs
under 4:40. Scheneberg has five runs under 4:39. Kincell has a better top time than Scheneberg
but doens't have another run under 4:40. Ward has a pair of runs under 4:40. Hayes hasn't
been under 4:40 and only has the 8 best top time, but he does have four runs under 4:44 and
picked up a 5th last year.

3200 M 1. Aaron Withrow Winfield
2. Luke Wilson Point Pleasant
3. Matthew Scheneberg Winfield
4. Ethan Kincell Fairmont Senior
5. Jackson Jacobs Bridgeport
6. Caleb Carlson Fairmont Senior
Withrow is easily the class of the field with a top time over 30 seconds ahead of anyone
else. Wilson has the only other run under 9:50 and has a pair under 10:00. Scheneberg also
has a pair under 10:00. Kincell has a run under 10:00 and three others under 10:05. Jacobs
has a better top time than Kincell, but hasn't approached that time in any other run. Carlson
has the nex best top time and series.

110 HH 1. Kaleb Mills Independence
2. Joe Cantley Shady Spring
3. James Shamblin Poca
4. Devyn Gillespie Frankfort
5. Kaydean Eta Point Pleasant
6. Jacob Clark Oak Glen
Mills has the top time in the field and it occurred at the Regional and at this venue. Cantley
has easily the 2nd best time in the field and has the best overall series. He also placed
last year. Shamblin gets the 3rd spot based on head-to-head competition. Gillespie is one of
just two in the field to have four runs under 16 seconds, and they've all come in May. Eta
has the 3rd best top time in the field, but Shamblin beat him at the Gazette Relays and at
the Regional. Clark has a pair of runs under 16 seconds.

300 IH 1. Jordan Coon Roane
2. Joe Cantley Shady Spring
3. Hayden Hess Bridgeport
4. Michael Beasley Oak Hill
5. Seth Mozingo Oak Glen
6. Jacob Neal Shady Spring
Coon has the top time in the field by over 0.8 seconds and is the only one with more than
one run under 41 seconds. Cantley has four runs under 42 seconds and placed 4th last year,
but he'll have to make his run from the first heat. Hess has the next best series in the
field. Mozingo has the 4th best top time in the field and is one of just four with four runs
under 43 seconds. He'll also be in the first heat, so he and Cantley can help each other out.
Neal has a pair of runs under 42.3 seconds.

4x100 M 1. Weir
2. Winfield
3. Oak Glen
4. Fairmont Senior
5. Philip Barbour
6. Frankfort
Weir has the top time in the field by over 0.4 seconds. Winfield can challenge them, having
a regional run that was very close to Weir's. Oak Geln has the next best time in the field.
Fairmont Senior has a pair of runs under 45 seconds and the fourth best regional run. Philip
Barbour has three runs under 45 seconds. Frankfort has the 4th best top time, but it was a
hand time, and had a matching time with Philip Barbour at the Regional.

4x200 M 1. Weir
2. Winfield
3. Shady Spring
4. Frankfort
5. Fairmont Senior
6. Point Pleasant
Weir has easily the top time in the field, nearly 2 seconds ahead of everyone else with a
1:30.01. Winfield is the only other team to have been unde r1:32. Shady Spring has a pair
of runs under 1:33. Frankfort is the only other team to have been under 1:33 and had a faster
regional run than Shady. Fairmont Senior has the next best time and has been fast in their
last two meets. Point Pleasant has three runs faster than the next fastest team.

4x400 M 1. Winfield
2. Bridgeport
3. Fairmont Senior
4. Shady Spring
5. Oak Glen
6. Keyser
Winfield can put a team together than can run down in the 3:25 range if they have to. They
have 3 individuals who have gone under 52 seconds. They have the top time in the field, run
at the regional...without Hayden O'Dell. I think he goes onto this relay and withrow runs
the 4x800. Shady Spring can put a team together than can go around 3:30...if they do it.
To do so, they'd have to blow up their 4x100 and move both Joe Cantley and Jacob Neal to this
relay and do it from the first heat. I think they pull that trigger. Oak Glen has been
consistently strong and popped a 3:34 in March. They could easily move up. Keyser ran an
excellent Regional, topping both Fairmont Senior and Oak Glen in the process.

4x800 M 1. Fairmont Senior
2. Philip Barbour
3. Winfield
4. North Marion
5. Oak Glen
6. East Fairmont
Fairmont Senior has the top time in the field, and I think there is more in the tank. They're
the only team that I'm confident can go under 8:20 if they have to. I gave Philip Barbour
the nod for 2nd. They knocked off Fairmont Senior at the Big 10 Championships. I have Winfield
being able to go faster than Philip Barbour and probably challenge Fairmont Senior, primarily
by adding Aaron Withrow to the mix. I thought they'd make that move last year as well, and
they didn't. I don't know if they'll do it this year or not, but loading this relay potenetially
makes it a winnable event. North Marion has the next best potential and has a great anchor
leg. Oak Glen has once again quietly put together a strong unit. They have three runs under
8:40. East Faimront was close behind them at the Regional. Oak Hill and Bridgeport are sitting
right on the edge and could well climb into the top 4 with a good day.

Shuttle 1. Fairmont Senior
2. Point Pleasant
3. Frankfort
4. Philip Barbour
5. Herbert Hoover
6. Keyser
Fairmont Senior has the top time in the field by over 2 seconds. Point Pleasant has a pair
of runs under 60.5. Frankfort has the only other run under 61 seconds. Philip Barbour has
a pair of runs under 62. Herbert Hoover has the next best top time and the next best series.
Keyser is the only other team to have been under 62.

H Jump 1. Michael Garrett North Marion
2. Michael Beasley Oak Hill
3. Logan Cogar Herbert Hoover
4. Jake McCoy Weir
5. Jace Colucci Westside
6. Raymond Brown Bluefield
Garrett has a top jump of 6'4 and is the only one in the field with more than one 6'2 jump,
and he has at least five jumps of 6'2 or better. Beasley is the only other one to have gone
higher than 6'0 with a mid-season 6'4 and has three 6'0 jumps to go with that, including at
the Regional. Cogar has four 6'0 jumps including his conference and regional meets and tied
for 3rd last year. McCoy cleared 6'0 at his regional. Colucci has a 6'0 jump and three 5'10
jumps. Brown has a 6'0 jump and a 5'10, which he got at the regional.

P Vault 1. Greg Moore Winfield
2. Cael McCutcheon Roane
3. Brendan Pattison Keyser
4. Avery Lackey Berkeley Springs
5. Tanner Moore Liberty Harrison
6. John Stohl Berkeley Springs
Moore has the only 13' vault in the field and has a pair of 12'6 vaults to go with it.
McCutcheon got 12'6 at the regional and has three 12'0 vaults to go with it. Pattison has
four 12'0 vaults, including one at the regional. Lackey has a pair of 12'0 vaults and a
pair of 11'6 vaults and was a placer last year. Moore aslo has a pair of 12'0 vaults and
a pair of 11'6 vaults. Stohl has a pair of 11'6 vaults, including at the regional, and an
11'0 vault.

L Jump 1. Michael Beasley Oak Hill
2. Gage Patterson Oak Glen
3. Jordan Coon Roane
4. John Smith Fairmont Senior
5. Logan Crock Frankfort
6. Blaise Nibert Grafton
Beasley has three jumps of at least 22' and five of at least 21'9 and is the defending champion.
Patterson has three 21' jumps and five of at least 20'8 and was a placer last year. Coon
has three 21' jumps and five of at least 20'7, but all three 21' jumps were at his home venue.
Smith has three jumps over 20' and was 3rd last year. Crock had the 2nd best regional jump
in the field but has just one other 20' jump to accompany it. Nibert has four 20' jumps.

Shot 1. Kellen Tropeck Oak Glen
2. Brock Robey Robert C. Byrd
3. Michael Powers Independence
4. Trevon Franklin Point Pleasant
5. Micah Swann Bridgeport
6. James Coburn Bridgeport
Tropeck is easily at the top of the field with a top throw nearly 7' better than anyone else.
He has five throws of at least 53'5. Robey has topped 48' at least five times. Powers is
one of just three to hit 49', one of just three to have multiple 48' throws, and has five throws
of at least 47'. Franklin has a 48' throw and a 47' throw. Swann has a pair of 47' throws
and at least five of 46' or more and was 3rd last year. Coburn has a 47' throw and a pair
of 46' throws.

Discus 1. Kellen Tropeck Oak Glen
2. Andrew Sponaugle Robert C. Byrd
3. Brock Robey Robert C. Byrd
4. Devyn Gillespie Frankfort
5. Paul Peters Robert C. Byrd
6. Kevin Hanshaw Chapmanville
Tropeck again tops the field, but this one is closer. That being said, he still leads by
almost 6' and has at least five throws better than anyone else's best. Sponaugle has a pair
of throws over 155' and four of at least 145'. No one else has topped 140' even once. Robey
has a pair of 137' throws and five of at least 131'. Gillespie has three throws of at least
130'. Peters only has the 10th best top throw, but has five of at least 127'. Hanshaw has
three throws of at least 130'.

High Point Predictions
1. Aaron Withrow Winfield 31.50
2. Jordan Coon Roane 28
3. Sebastian Spencer Weir 25
4. Michael Garrett North Marion 23
5. Michael Beasley Oak Hill 22