2019 State Meet Predictions

RunWV Predictions
Class A Boys

Class A Boys Individual Event Predictions

100 M 1. Nathan Swaniger Clay-Battelle
2. Cole Deel Webster
3. Dawson Tharp Webster
4. Mark Rucker Tyler Consolidated
5. Reece Nutter Webster
6. Bray Price Wheeling Central
Swaniger has the top time and has three runs better than anyone else's best and five of
11.25 or better. Deel gets the nod over Tharp based on the Regional win. Tharp got him
at the Gazette Relays, though. Rucker has a better top time than either, but his three
best runs all occurred before mid-April. Nutter has the next best top time and the next
best series. Price has the next best top time and series and was very close to Rucker at
the Regional. However, he reportedly pulled up at the end of the 4x100 at the Regional.
I don't know if he'll be able to run or not.

200 M 1. Cole Deel Webster
2. Nathan Swaniger Clay-Battelle
3. Dawson Tharp Webster
4. Austin Garrett Ravenswood
5. Colin Hunkele Williamstown
6. Chase Steele Gilmer
Deel has come on late with his top 5 runs all coming in his last three meets. Swaniger
has the best top time and best overall series. He's the only one in the field with five
runs under 23 seconds. Tharp has the next best top time and next best series. Garrett's
Regional time was just short of Tharp's. Hunkele has the next best top time and the next
best series. Steele has the next best top time and next best series after that.

400 M 1. Pat Mirandy Magnolia
2. Jason Beisel Magnolia
3. Austin Garrett Ravenswood
4. Colin Hunkele Williamstown
5. Joshua Cooper Midland Trail
6. Isaac Blake Richwood
Mirandy has only ran the open twice...and he's the only one with more than one run under
52 seconds. Beisel is one of just three to have been under 52 seconds and has five runs
under 52.60. Garrett has the 2nd best top time with a strong 51.22 at his regional, but
he has no other runs under 53. Hunkele has the next best top time and has been under 53
seconds all four times he's run it. Cooper has the next best top time and four runs under
52.7. Blake has the next best top time and four runs under 53. 9 in the field have been
under 53 seconds (actually all at 52.6 or better). Top times 4 through 9 are separated
by just 0.48 seconds. Mirandy, Blake, and Cooper placed last year.

800 M 1. Blake Jarrell Ravenswood
2. Bryce Jarrell Ravenswood
3. Jarett Allender Ritchie
4. Spencer Shepard Magnolia
5. Gage Smith Doddridge
6. Chase Ammons Clay-Battelle
The Jarrells are the only ones to have been faster than 2:03, and they've both been in the
2:01s once and 2:02s twice. Blake has a slightly better top time and a better overall
series, so he gets the nod. Allender is coming on late and was the runner-up last year
and beat Bryce at the LKC meet. Shepard has three runs under 2:04 and a better overall
series than Allender and was 3rd last year. The front four have all been under 2:04 and
are 2 seconds ahead of the rest. Smith is the only other one to have gone under 2:06, which
he's done twice. Ammons looked really good at his Regional, beating Smith in the process,
and can close well.

1600 M 1. Blake Jarrell Ravenswood
2. Bryce Jarrell Ravenswood
3. Carter Lipscomb Doddridge
4. Kent Bee Ritchie
5. Spencer Corley Tyler Consolidated
6. Angelo Quatrocchi Madonna
The Jarrells are the only ones with multiple runs under 4:40, and they each have at least
five. Lipsomb has the next best series. Bee has a better top time than Lipscomb and edged
him at the LKC meet. Corley has been consistenly solid, having a slightly better overall
series than Bee. Quatrocchi is the only other one in the field with multiple runs under
4:50, and he has a pair of 4:42 runs, including the Regional, where he knocked off Corley,
and three others of 4:48 or better.

3200 M 1. Carter Lipscomb Doddridge
2. Bryce Jarrell Ravenswood
3. Blake Jarrell Ravenswood
4. Kent Bee Ritchie
5. Malachi Woods Buffalo
6. Joshua Chambers Williamstown
Lipscomb has the top time in the field and a pair of runs under 10:00. Bryce has the only other
run under 9:50 in the group. Blake joins Lipscomb as the only one wit a pair of runs under 10:00
and actually has the best series in the group. He also knocked off Bryce at the LKC meet.
Bee is the only other other one in the field to have been under 10:20. Woods is the only other
one with multiple runs under 10:30, and he has four of them. Bee has just the one. Chambers
has a better top time than Woods, but Woods knocked him off at the Regional meet.

110 HH 1. Gus Morrison Ritchie
2. Zack Placer Tyler Consolidated
3. Nathan Barker Tyler Consolidated
4. Griffin Devericks Doddridge
5. Brennan Secrist Madonna
6. Corrick Ambrose Tucker
This one is really tricky. I figure just about any of these guys could win it. And that's without
Tucker's Ben Callaway, who was running away with Region 2 before falling. He'd have probably been
my pick. As it is Morrison has three runs under 16 seconds with two coming in his last two meets.
Placer has the 2nd best top time in the group and beat Morrison at the Regional. Barker is probably
the most consistent of the group and ran is best time of the season at the Regional. Devericks has
the best top time and the best series fo the group with four runs under 16 seconds, but he's been
battling an ankle injury that has slowed him at the LKC and Regional meets. None of his top five
runs have come in May. But if he's recovered, he could still win it. Secrist has a better top time
than Barker, going under 16 at the OVAC meet. Ambrose has the next best top time and next best
series. He beat Devericks at the Regional meet. The top 10 have all been 16.32 or better, so making
the final may be half the battle.

300 IH 1. Ben Callaway Tucker
2. Griffin Devericks Doddridge
3. Pat Mirandy Magnolia
4. Gus Morrison Ritchie
5. Joey Schmidt Wirt
6. Bradey Fayad Williamstown
Callaway is one of just two in the field to have gone under 41 seconds and has three runs under 42
seconds. Devericks has the top time in the field and has five runs of 41.75 or better. His top
time came on the bad ankle, and he won the event last year, so it certainly wouldn't be a surpise to
see him win it. But Callaway beat him at the Regional, so we're going with Callaway. Mirandy has
only ran the event 3 times, but scored a 41.32 at the Regional meet. He has a speed advantage over
the rest and might be the most likely to go under 40 if he runs a clean race. Morrison has a better
top time than Mirandy and joins Devericks as the only ones with five (or more) runs under 42 seconds.
He'll have to do his damage from the first heat, though, as his regional run was in the 43s. None of
his top 5 runs have come in May. Schmidt clocked a 41.34 at his Regional. He'd likely have been there
at the LKC as well but fell. Fayad has a pair of runs under 42 seconds and was the runner-up last year.

4x100 M 1. Webster
2. Tyler Consolidated
3. Williamstown
4. Magnolia
5. Summers
6. Ritchie
Webster has a top time over 0.6 ahead of the field and a full second ahead of the top time for the
units I think will be used. They also have three of my top five predicted guys for the 100. Tyler
Consolidated has the next best time of units I think will be used, followed by Williamstown. Magnolia
has the 2nd best top time in the field, but I believe they ran that with Pat Mirandy in the lineup
(despite what the results for that meet say). But they still have the next best FAT time in the field.
Summers has a hand-time that equals Williamstown's time and has the next best FAT time from their
Regional. Ritchie only has the 8th best top time, but they've been more consistent than the two ahead
of them, and the times are pretty close.

4x200 M 1. Webster
2. Magnolia
3. Williamstown
4. Tucker
5. Wheeling Central
6. Ritchie
Webster has the top time in the field and three very legitimate burners. Magnolia only had the 5th best
regional time, but I think Pat Mirandy lands here after scratching the 200 finals at the Regional. They
ran a time on 4/20 that was only half a second off Webster's time. I don't know if Mirandy was on that
unit or not, but since it's 2 seconds faster than any of their other runs, I'm betting he was. His
addition could put them into the winner's circle. Williamstown's top time is less than 0.2 off Webster's,
and they're the only team to have a pair of runs under 1:33. Tucker only qualified 13th, but I think
they need to have somewhere to add Ben Callaway. And if they're going to add Callaway, I think they
add Will White as well, dropping him out of either the 200 or the 400. Those two make this a significantly
stronger group. Wheeling Central has three runs under 1:35.3. Their placement will rely much on the
health of Bray Price's hamstring. Ritchie has the only other run under 1:36.

4x400 M 1. Magnolia
2. Williamstown
3. Ritchie
4. Tyler Consolidated
5. Tucker
6. Webster
Magnolia had the top Regional run. Williamstown and Ritchie will certainly be in the thick of things, though.
I'm skeptical of Williamstown's 3:30 from early April since the same unit has ran together since then and
hasn't been close to that. That being said, they do have three guys who have done the open in 52.6 or
better and another who has been in the 54's. Three 52's and a 54 add up to a 3:30. I believe Ritchie can
go in the 3:32 range. I don't think anyone challenges these three. Tyler Consolidated has been under
3:40. Like in the 4x200, Tucker only comes in with the #11 regional time and the #8 time overall, but
I think there's a possibility that add Will White to this as well. Adding him to the 4x200 and 4x400 would
require him dropping the 200 AND the 400. I don't think he comes out of either field event. If they make
that move, they'll have to make their run at placing from the first heat. Webster joins them in that heat.
They have the option of adding Reece Nutter. I really don't know if he helps their unit or not, but he
does have an open event.

4x800 M 1. Ravenswood
2. Ritchie
3. Magnolia
4. Tyler Consolidated
5. Williamstown
6. Doddridge
This one should be fun up front. Ravenswood has the Jarrell brothers who have the top two 800 times in
Class A. They went 8:31 with this unit at the LKC, and I think this is what they do. They would have
the option of loading the 4x400 and contending for that win or rolling the dice and splitting the Jarrells
into the 4x800 and 4x400 like they did at the Regional and hoping to score a top 3 in each, but I think
they load this relay and try for the win. No one else has been within 7 second of the time they ran at
the LKC. However, I actually have Ritchie being ablet to go faster. To do it, they'll have to pull Jarett
Allender from either the 400 or the Pole Vault. Since the Class A Pole Vault is going on at the same time
as the 4x800, I think he drops the vault. Magnolia can run right in the same area, and this race could
come down to a kick. I gave Ravenswood the nod simply because they've been a lot faster. I slot Ritchie
into 2nd because I think their ceiling is higher. But any of the three could win it. I think there's a
pretty good gap back to 4th. Tyler Consolidated's group is very similar to last year's group that ran
an 8:40. Williamstown hasn't shown it, but I think they can probably get in that 8:50 range. Doddridge
has an 9:10 under their belts that was run without Gage Smith, who has an open event. That probably
drops them under 9:00.

Shuttle 1. Tucker
2. South Harrison
3. Ritchie
4. Tyler Consolidated
5. Doddridge
6. Tygarts Valley
Tucker has the top time in the field by over 0.7 seconds and has five runs under 61.5. South Harrison
is the only other team to have gone under 1:01, and they have three runs under 62. Ritchie has the next
best top time and a pair of runs under 62. Tyler Consolidated is the only other team to have gone under
62. Doddridge has the next best top time and three runs under 63. Tygarts Valley has the next best top
time and beat Doddridge at their Regional. In the "interest to Josh" statistics category, 15 of the 16
teams in the field ran their best time of the season at their Regional with Doddridge being the only one
that didn't.

H Jump 1. Spencer Corley Tyler Consolidated
2. Will White Tucker
3. Jeremiah Blackmore Wheeling Central
4. Isaak Mooney St. Marys
5. Jacob Mazzella Richwood
6. Joel Bindley Williamstown
Corley has the top jump in the field by over 6". He has four jumps of at least 6'4. No one else has
gone higher than 6'0. White is the only other one in the field to go 6'0 at his Regional. He has two
other 6'0 jumps to his credit. Blackmore also has three 6'0 jumps. Mooney is the only other one to
have cleared 6'0 during the season and has at least four 5'10 jumps to go with it. Mazzella has three
5'10 jumps making him the only other one in the field to have more than one. Bindley is the only other
one to have cleared 5'10 even once.

P Vault 1. Reese Burnside Doddridge
2. Preston Peck South Harrison
3. Dawson Evans Doddridge
4. Wyatt Schultz St. Marys
5. Trey Moss Ritchie
6. Hayden Riddle Ritchie
Burnside is the only one to have been higher than 12'0, and he has a 14'0 vault, a pair of 13'6 vaults,
and at least two others of at least 13'0. Peck has a trio of 12'0 vaults and was runner-up last year.
Evans is the only one other than Burnside to have a full series of 12'0 vaults, but Peck got him at
the Regional. Schultz has a pair of 11'6 vaults and at least three others of 11'0. Moss has an 11'6
vault and an 11'0 vault with those occurring in May. Riddle has a pair of 11'0 vaults and at least
three others of 10'6.

L Jump 1. Chase Steele Gilmer
2. Isaak Mooney St. Marys
3. Will White Tucker
4. Elijah Edie Sherman
5. Mikey Bell Williamstown
6. Shane Griffith Greenbrier West
Steele is the only one in the field to have surpassed 21', and he's done it three times. Mooney has
only jumped in the last three meets, but has been over 20' each time. All three were at jumper friendly
venues, though. White has a trio of 20' jumps as well with two coming in his last two meets. Edie
doesn't have a 20' jump but has three of at least 19'8 with two of those coming at Laidley. Bell is
one of just four in the field with at least five 19' jumps and has one in there over 20'. Griffith
also has five 19' jumps.

Shot 1. Jakob Barrows Magnolia
2. Cole James Doddridge
3. Zane Myers Tucker
4. Ian Beller Sherman
5. Jared Barrows Magnolia
6. E.J. Weber Paden City
Barrows has three throws further than anyone else's best, and his top throw crushes the field by almost
4'. James has the next best series and had the top regional throw. Myers has a better top throw than
James, but not quite as good a series, and James edged him at the Regional. Beller has the next best
top throw and easily the next best series. Barrows has the next best top throw and series. Weber is
the last to have hit 46' and seems to have hit his stride with his top three throws coming in his last
three meets with each meet going a little further than the last.

Discus 1. Tommy Harper Sherman
2. Cole James Doddridge
3. Ian Beller Sherman
4. Roger Carte Midland Trail
5. Brandon Bowie Ritchie
6. Jakob Barrows Magnolia
Harper has the top throw in the field by 4' and has topped 150' three times but hasn't hit that mark since
4/12. He's also the defending champion. James is the only other one to have hit 150', and he's done it
four times and just missed by an inch on another. He also had the top Regional throw. Beller is the only
other one to have hit 140' and has done so twice with two more over 135'. Carte has a trio over 135' and
hit 137'8 at his Regional. Bowie has a better top throw and better series than Carte, but his five best
throws occurred mid-April or earlier. Barrows topped 130' four times.

High Point Predictions
1. Blake Jarrell Ravenswood 28.50
2. Bryce Jarrell Ravenswood 26.50
3. Cole Deel Webster 23
4. Pat Mirandy Magnolia 20.50
5. Nathan Swaniger Clay-Battelle 18