2011 State Meet Predictions

RunWV Predictions
Teams

The state meet predictions are based on results have gathered throughout the season, head-to-head competitions, regional results, perceived potential, trends and (of course) gut feeling.

AAA Boys Team Predictions
1.  Jefferson           87
2.  Cabell Midland      78
3.  South Charleston    53
4.  Winfield            39
5.  Elkins              36
5.  Parkersburg South   36
7.  Hurricane           33
8.  Woodrow Wilson      32
9.  Wheeling Park       31
10. Fairmont Senior     22
11. George Washington   16
12. Washington          15
13. Musselman           14
14. Martinsburg         13
15. Princeton           10
15. Robert C. Byrd      10
17. Lewis                9
18. Hedgesville          6
19. Morgantown           4
20. Greenbrier East      3
20. University           3
22. Buckhannon-Upshur    2
22. Parkersburg          2
22. Preston              2
22. Ripley               2
I think this is a two horse race.  I have Jefferson winning by 9 over Cabell Midland.  This
could be very tight.  A big weekend from Jacob Reynolds could put Cabell Midland over the top.
If Brandon Doughty can knock off Jacob Burcham in an event or two, if could put Jefferson out
of reach.  In reality, the two teams square off in a lot of events.  They square off in very
meaningful ways in the 100, 200, 800, 1600, 3200, 4x400, and 4x800.  South Charleston looks 
fairly solidly third.  I have 4th through 9th separated by 8 points.

 
AAA Girls Team Predictions
1.  Buckhannon-Upshur     82
2.  Martinsburg           76
3.  Jefferson             38
4.  Elkins                36
5.  Wheeling Park         34
6.  Morgantown            33
7.  John Marshall         30
8.  Winfield              26
9.  Fairmont Senior       24
10. University            23
11. Hurricane             18
12. Washington            17
13. Huntington            16
14. Nicholas              15
15. Preston               14
16. Hampshire             13
17. Musselman             12
18. Parkersburg           11
19. Cabell Midland        10
20. Capital                8
21. Brooke                 5
21. Parkersburg South      5
23. Hedgesville            2
23. Nitro                  2
23. Ripley                 2
23. St. Albans             2
23. Woodrow Wilson         2
28. George Washington      1
28. Greenbrier East        1
This is a two team race.  Buckhannon-Upshur and Martinsburg both have big point producers, so
big days and bad days will likely make the difference.  The two can't do much to damage each
other in the meet as they rarely square off in any meaningful way.  I have just 8 points 
separating 3rd and 7th.

AA Boys Team Predictions
1.  Magnolia             88
2.  Ritchie              80
3.  Keyser               55
4.  Point Pleasant       41
4.  Tyler Consolidated   41
6.  Liberty Harrison     40
7.  Greenbrier West      28
7.  Philip Barbour       28
9.  Scott                24
10. Berkeley Springs     23
11. Oak Hill             14
12. Lincoln              12
12. Ravenswood           12
12. Webster              12
15. Bluefield             9
16. Braxton               8
16. Poca                  8
18. Sherman               7
19. Independence          6
19. Oak Glen              6
19. Westside              6
21. Shady Spring          5
22. Wayne                 2
23. PikeView              1
23. Roane                 1
23. Weir                  1
I have Magnolia winning by 8.  Anyone outside Magnolia and Ritchie winning would be
a major upset.  Magnolia and Ritchie do go head-to-head in a number of events with
the 4x400, 4x800, and Shot Put being the most notable.  Keyser looks like a solid
third.

AA Girls Team Predictions
1.  Tyler Consolidated    47
2.  Berkeley Springs      45
3.  Philip Barbour        42
3.  Weir                  42
5.  Oak Glen              36
6.  Keyser                32
6.  Wayne                 32
8.  Frankfort             30
9.  Liberty Harrison      28
10. Lincoln               27
11. PikeView              26
12. Summers               24
13. Point Pleasant        23
14. Shady Spring          22
15. Poca                  18
16. Magnolia              16
16. Roane                 16
18. Ritchie               13
19. Grafton               12
20. Herbert Hoover        10
21. Independence           8
22. Oak Hill               7
23. Braxton                2
Tyler Consolidated comes out on top, but it's hard to call them a favorite when things
are that close.  I have the top four separated by just 5 points.  Really, there are six
teams that have a legitimate shot at winning.  Weir is the one that I think is very
dangerous.  If they get strong days from their distance crew, they'll be tough to beat.
Oak Glen has upward mobility as well.  Tyler Consolidated has some upward mobility related
to Rheanna Foley.  She could score better than picked in her individual events, or they
could trade her into relays and increase their score a little that way.  This will be a
very fun team battle to watch.

A Boys Team Predictions
1.  St. Marys            82
2.  Doddridge            80
3.  Charleston Catholic  67
4.  Williamstown         65
5.  Buffalo              44
6.  Pocahontas           40
7.  Richwood             28
7.  Wheeling Central     28
9.  East Hardy           24
9.  Valley Wetzel        24
11. Gilmer               17
12. Fayetteville         14
13. South Harrison       12
14. Mount Hope           10
15. Cameron               6
15. Clay-Battelle         6
17. Pendleton             5
18. Wirt                  4
19. Bishop Donahue        3
20. Calhoun               2
I call this a four-team race.  St. Marys and Doddridge are a little out ahead of 
Charleston Catholic and Williamstown, but those two are in the race.  St. Marys
and Doddridge square off in a number of meaningful races where a position or two
can make a huge difference.  Charleston Catholic needs a healthy Will Dobbins and
some related maneuvering to be in the mix.  Williamstown can certainly be a factor
in a number of areas.

A Girls Team Predictions
1.  Williamstown          149
2.  St. Marys              80
3.  Charleston Catholic    77
4.  Doddridge              70
5.  South Harrison         34
6.  Madonna                29
7.  Wheeling Central       26
8.  Wahama                 22
9.  East Hardy             19
10. Gilmer                 14
11. Union                  12
12. Wirt                    8
13. Tucker                  5
14. Buffalo                 4
14. Moorefield              4
14. Richwood                4
17. Williamson              1
This is another situation like a couple years ago.  If Williamstown's bus can find
Laidley Field, they'll win.  They have great depth.  They may score in every event.
The battle for 3rd should be close.  St. Marys and Charleston Catholic have an edge
on Doddridge.