RunWV Predictions
Teams
Our state meet predictions are based on results we have gathered
throughout the season, head-to-head competitions, regional
results, perceived potential, trends and (of course) gut feeling.
AAA Boys Team Predictions
1. Parkersburg South 71
2. South Charleston 68
3. Cabell Midland 57
4. Robert C. Byrd 36
5. Parkersburg 35
6. Philip Barbour 34
7. Huntington 26
8. Riverside 24
9. Capital 23
10. St. Albans 22
11. University 19
T12.North Marion 18
T12.George Washington 18
14. Wheeling Park 17
15. Nitro 16
16. Woodrow Wilson 12
17. Hedgesville 11
T18.Ripley 8
T18.Hurricane 8
20. Musselman 6
T21.Martinsburg 4
T21.East Fairmont 4
T21.Preston 4
T24.Morgantown 3
T24.Point Pleasant 3
T24.Keyser 3
T27.Jefferson 2
T27.Hampshire 2
T27.Fairmont Senior 2
T30.Brooke 1
T30.Buckhannon Upshur 1
In what should be the states best race, Parkersburg South appears
to have an edge over South Charleston and little more room over
Cabell Midland. We have picked 12 placers for them at a relatively
low average of 5.92 per placer. That means they have some upward
potential. This includes Spencer in the sprints and the vaulters.
However, they do have a down side. Spencer likely won't loose to
many by the High Jump and Vaulter points will be critical. The
loss of the 4x4 (who we think might have won states) brought them
ever so close to South Charleston. South Charleston seems to have
less room from improvement with 9 placers scoring an average of
7.6 per place. However, Whitehead alone could pick up another half
dozen points. Marshall might grab a few more in the 300H and either
of the distance relays might grab a point or two. Basically, it appears to boil
down to this.. If Whitehead is fully healthy, South Charleston
should get the victory.
Now, lets look at Cabell Midland and talk about potential. We
have picked them to have 12 placers for an average of 4.75 points
per placer. That leaves a lot of room for upward potential. The
distance runners can get a few points, but since they might be
taking points from one another, they can only gain so much. Beckett
in the 800 and Kitching/Rogers in the 3200 will be important for them.
They can't score too many more in the mile. O'Malley might grab a
couple more in the 300H and the 4x2, 4x4 and shuttles might be
able to grab a couple a peice. In the field, Morrison could easily
challenge for 4 more points. Add it up and they are right there
with the other two. If Whitehead's not at full speed and Parkersburg
South's jump events don't go well, then Midland is there without
any of the improvements we mentioned above. Never count Midland
out. We can already hear them clawing away at our predicitons like
a pack of rats. A point here... A point there....
Parkersburg is the only other team with an outside shot at a top
3 placing but would have to have an outstanding meet and have one
of the other teams falter badly.
AAA Girls Team Predictions
1. Parkersburg 94
2. Capital 65
3. Hampshire 52
4. Martinsburg 39
5. Roane 32
6. Parkersburg South 27
7. Hedgesville 26
T8. Wheeling Park 25
T8. Huntington 25
10. Fairmont Senior 24
11. Elkins 23
12. Jefferson 22
13. Woodrow Wilson 17
T14.University 16
T14.Keyser 16
T16.Cabell Midland 10
T16.St. Albans 10
18. Logan 7
19. Morgantown 6
T20.Robert C. Byrd 5
T20.Brooke 5
T20.Buckhannon Upshur 5
T23.Nitro 2
T23.John Marshall 2
T23.Greenbrier East 2
26. East Fairmont 1
Parkersburg looks to have a good lead on the rest of the field.
We have them taking 14 places in the meet with several athletes
(such as Jones, Ward and Spencer) a good bet to score more than
we have given them. Add some great relays around the three and
you've got a very solid base. By comparison, we have Capital with
9 placers with less upward potential. Cary can't score any more
than we have given her. Their relays could score a few more points
and Moss could pick up a few in the throws and Hornbuckle could
score higher in the HJ and grab points in the 300's. Likely it
would take all of that plus something bad happening to
Parkersburg to give Captial another title. However, if last year
taught us anything, nothing is a given. Let's just hope we don't
have a situation like last year and not know who really would have
won. Capital got the title last year but Parkersburg wants it back
very badly. Hampshire could move up to second, but Stewart and
both of the Davis's would have to nearly max out. Jennifer could
move up in the 400, Susan could have come further than we expected
and grab 4-8 more points and Stewart could place much higher in the
long jump. If Parkersburg had a bad meet and Hampshire did perfect
then just maybe.... Martinsburg, Roane, Parkersburg South and
Wheeling Park could also go as high as third if things don't work
out for Hampshire.
A-AA Boys Team Predictions
1. Magolia 89
2. Oak Glen 60
3. St. Marys 50
4. Ravenswood 49
5. Ritchie 38
6. Berkeley Springs 32
7. Doddridge 31
8. Wheeling Central 20
9. Grafton 19
10. Weir 16
11. Bridgeport 15
12. Shady Spring 14
13. Williamstown 13
13. Tyler Consolidated 13
15. Liberty Raleigh 12
16. Pocahontas 9
16. Independence 9
18. Gilmer 8
18. Pikeview 8
20. Tygarts Valley 7
20. Poca 7
22. East Hardy 6
22. Winfield 6
22. Richwood 6
25. Mount Hope 4
25. Tucker 4
27. Moorefield 3
27. Frankfort 3
29. Petersburg 2
29. Webster 2
31. Lincoln 1
31. Wayne 1
31. Braxton 1
As with last year, Region I appears to be dominant in boys AA-A with our top
three teams coming from that region. Ravenswood is powerful enough to mix it
up with those teams as well. Magnolia, Oak Glen, St. Marys and Ravenswood have
all been on top of the power rankings at some point this year and those should
be the only four teams with a realistic shot at the title. Magnolia looks to
be way ahead of the field, but they could come back quickly. Baxter is at the
head of the sprint field, but those are so close that a .10 increase in time
could move him from first to not placing in either. Long must hit the LJ as
well and as we pointed out in the individual predicitons, our LJ pick for
champion has failed to place the last three years. Kick out those 30 (or
points from elsewhere) and you have a whole new ball game. Magnolia picks up
points in 12 areas (7.4 per placer), while Oak Glen gets theirs in only 7 (8.6
per placer). This means that Oak Glen has very little room to increase points
with since they are picked to finish a litte better than an average of second
per placer. St. Marys might score a few more points but their average is high
as well (7.1 per placer). Ravenswood is more likely to move up than any of the
other top teams. The score 11 times which gives them an average placement of
around 4th with a average of 4.5 per placer. That means they have a bunch of
guys that we pick to in the 3-6 range that could move up. Add that to the fact
that they have several other people who we think might place and they are indeed
dangerous and might have the second best shot at winning states. If one of thse
four teams fail, Ritchie also has runners in many events that could pick up several
points and has a shot at a top 3 finish. Anyone else cracking the top 3 would be
a real surprise.
A-AA Girls Team Predictions
Girls Team Predicitions
1. Doddridge 89
2. Grafton 82
3. Winfield 63
4. Bridgeport 38
5. Ritchie 34
6. Fayetteville 30
7. Richwood 28
8. Sissonville 26
9. Wheeling Central 23
T10.Magnolia 18
T10.Summers 18
12. Moorefield 16
13. East Hardy 11
T14.Tygarts Valley 10
T14.Oak Hill 10
T16.Weir 8
T16.Tyler Consolidated 8
T16.Webster 8
T19.Braxton 6
T19.St. Marys 6
21. Frankfort 5
T22.Ravenswood 4
T22.Charleston Catholic 4
T22.Notre Dame 4
T25.Marsh Fork 2
T25.Poca 2
T25.Paden City 2
T28.Oak Glen 1
T28.Madonna 1
T28.Williamstown 1
Doddridge is once again at the top of the heap but this year, Grafton is right
on their tail. Both survived a very tight regionals without too much attrition
and should be ready to do battle once again. Key events appear to be the
110 Hurdles, High Jump and Pole Vault as they have athletes going head to head.
If Grafton can jump past even some of the Doddridge athletes in those events,
they have a great shot at the title. The only other two events in which the
teams go head to head and have a shot to place are the 4x400 and the shuttle
relay. Doddridge seems safe in the shuttles, but the 4x400 should decide the
state championship. Going into the final event, we have Doddridge with a 5 point
lead. With both teams likely to finish somewhere in the top 4 positions, a
Grafton Victory and a 4th by Doddridge would lead to a Grafton championship. Both
have a large number of placers with Doddridge having 14 placers picked at an
average of 6.36 and Grafton having 13 placers picked at an average of 6.31.
That means that both teams have a little room for improvement but not much.
Winfield would have to have a great day in combination with a Doddridge and
Grafton falter to contend. They have 10 placers picked at an average of 6.3.
If Jones is unable to make it through the meet, they will fall a long way.
Ritchie and Bridgeport should have a great battle for 4th place with Bridgeport
having a little more upward potential in scoring. Fayetteville looks good for 30
and that should be enough for fifth.