Meet: Boys A-AA State Meet Predictions
Date: For May 25-26, 2001
Location: Charleston, WV
Boys Individual Event Predictions
100 M 1. Jason Baxter Magnolia
2. Paul Graber Bridgeport
3. Aaron Fornash Shady Spring
4. Ryan Ferns Wheeling Central
5. Jacob Petry Moorefield
6. Aaron Long Magnolia
Many of these runners are so close (just look at some of the regional
results if you don't believe us) that we were tempted to just draw
names out of a hat. However, that would be the easy way out, so we
just bit the bullet and did the best we could. Baxter has the best
regional time and proved he can do well at the big meets as evidenced
by last year's 3rd place finish at states. Graber (a baseball player)
has been coming on strong and won the very tough Region II. Fornash has
the best hand timed time of the qualifying runners and should also
contend. Runners not even on our top six also have a decent chance at a
top three finish, most notably David Palmer and David Archie. Also
keep an eye on Jeremy Howard of Buffalo who was 5th last year, but has
been hampered by an injury.
200 M 1. Jason Baxter Magnolia
2. David Palmer Pocahontas
3. Jesse Levinson East Hardy
4. Paul Graber Bridgeport
5. Ryan Ferns Wheeling Central
6. Jacob Petry Moorefield
Again, Baxter looks strong with his regional time tied for the adjusted
best with Palmer. Petry only finished 4th in his region, but had a very
good trials and placed 5th in the state last year in this event. Again,
this is an exteremly tight field with no one clocking anything under 23.1
this year with 10 runners falling easily within half a second of each other.
In a recurring theme, watch Buffalo's Jeremy Howard who place 2nd in this
event last year but has been physically hindered this year. Archie, Hamrick
and Ritchie also could easily jump up into a top three.
400 M 1. Rance Everly Oak Glen
2. Kyle Ritchie Ravenswood
3. David Archie Weir
4. Jarrod Pittman Mt. Hope
5. David Workman Grafton
6. Joseph Schoolcraft Pocahontas
Everly has AA's best time this season and the top regional time. Ritchie
has been very strong all season and hasn't faltered. Archie has the speed
to possibly get past both but hasn't ran the event as much as the other two.
Pittman placed 5th in last year's meet and also may have something to say
about the championship. The top six have all clocked times of 51.8 or
better this season with no other runners being within a half second of them.
Also, for the last time, keep an eye on Buffalo's Jeremy Howard who has
placed in this event the last two years. He would have been among the
favorites and could contend if fully recovered.
800 M 1. Matt Apesos Weir
2. Ashton Nelson Independence
3. Matt Quinet Magnolia
4. Chris Herron Liberty Raleigh
5. Josh Sheets Doddridge
6. Chris Snell Ravenswood
Apesos has the states only sub two minute time this year and has the ability
to go a little faster but must be on top of his game. Nelson has exploded
onto the scene in southern WV and could also break two. Quinet, 4th in 2000,
could also take home the championship and beat Apesos in the region. Herron
and Sheets will have ran in a very competitve 1600 and we think that may
hinder them from being able to run sub 2:00. They've done it all season
and have ran well, but the a full blown 4 lap race should take away some of
their kick. Snell did not run the 1600 at regionals and should be able to
place as well. Sy Farris of Frankfort could slip in and it will be
interesting to see if Michael Candelario of Petersburg (5th in last year's
state meet) can chop off around 8 seconds from his top time this year and
place again.
1600 M 1. Josh Sheets Doddridge
2. Chris Herron Liberty Raleigh
3. Justin Simpson Oak Glen
4. Anthony Ramezan Gilmer
5. Sy Farris Frankfort
6. Adam Benford Ravenswood
The top four seem to be well away from the rest of the field. Sheets is the
only runner to have gone under 4:30 so far this year and has beaten the top
runners this year. He and Herron (5th and 4th in last year's meet) seem to
have more speed than Simpson which should give them a slight edge but Simpson
could also win. Regardless of who wins, they are probably going to have to
knock 5 seconds off thier PR to win. This should be a great race at the
front and at the rear where at least 6 other runners have a good shot a the
final few positions. The fastest of the remaining runners is St. Mary's
Adam Raper who has also been fighting injury.
3200 M 1. Justin Simpson Oak Glen
2. Josh Sheets Doddridge
3. Cole Carpenter Ritchie
4. Isaac Andrick Ravenswood
5. Scott Gemberling Grafton
6. Jon Riffle Grafton
Simpson has the best 3200 Meter time this year but Sheets and Carpenter are
close behind. Simpson also has a slight edge since both Sheets and Carpenter
will have run the 4x800 (but not much since it will have been 5 hours prior).
Andrick really turned it up a notch at regionals and could make a run at the
top three. (Sheets, Andrick and Simpson were 4,5,6 in the 2000 meet). The
last couple spots are really up for grab with a number of runners having a
legimate shot at knocking off our 5,6 picks. Most likely are Kenny Beerbower,
Kelby Gray, Steven Nutter and a recovering Nick Dent.
110 HH 1. Shane Bosley Berkeley Springs
2. Jared Davis St. Marys
3. Curt Simcox Oak Glen
4. Scott Hebb Tucker
5. Brandon Welch Tygarts Valley
6. Justin Vankirk Ravenswood
Bosley seems to have a little more speed the the other runners to go along
with his good hurdling form and had the best regional time and tied for best
hand time in the state this year. Jared Davis placed 5th in last years meet
and is the sole returning placer and has been hand timed at 14.7, matching
Bosely for tops in the state. Simcox is the only other runner under 15 so
far this year. Hebb and Welch had very solid regional times and Vankirk has
also been very solid this year and could move up. Josh Rose, Josh Natali
and Brad Keys appear to be the most likely to jump in a grab a place if our
picks fall through.
300 IH 1. Curt Simcox Oak Glen
2. Justin Vankirk Ravenswood
3. Shane Bosley Berkeley Springs
4. Bryson Welch Tygarts Valley
5. Brad Keys Winfield
6. Brandon Welch Tygarts Valley
Simcox has been the only runner under 40 this year and should win.
Vankirk has been very consistent and had the best regional time. Bosley
hasn't been pushed by the top runners yet and could also contend. Josh
Rose, Josh Natali and Jesse Neely have all been under 41.5 this year and
could easily move well up our list.
4x100 M 1. Berkeley Springs
2. St. Marys
3. Shady Spring
4. Wheeling Central
5. Tyler Consolidated
6. Lincoln
Berkeley Springs has the fastest time in the state this year but St. Marys
is close behind. Shady Spring also has the horses to go for top spot but
will have to knock off several tenths to compete. Central and Tyler ran
well in regionals and Lincoln has a bunch of veterans that should come
through and contend for the final few spots. The six teams have all been
at 45.8 or better, no one else in the state has gone under 46. If one drops
out, Oak Glen appears to be next in line.
4x200 M 1. Oak Glen
2. Magnolia
3. St. Marys
4. Ravenswood
5. Shady Spring
6. Tyler Consolidated
Oak Glen and Magnolia have the states only times under 1:33 this year and
should stage a great race for top spot. Oak Glen gets the edge with their
regional victory over Magnolia. St. Marys is the only other team to come
within a couple ticks of the two front runners. The remaining 3 spots should
be fun. Ravenswood has been winning all season and has been consistent,
Shady is obviously fast and has a shot at really moving up. Tyler was the
4th team in that great region I race and looks good for 6th. Bridgeport
could also get deep into the top six, but there group of runners hasn't
gotten to do many meets together and that kind of thing usually burns you
at the state meet. Lincoln and Berkeley Springs could also score.
4x400 M 1. Ravenswood
2. Magnolia
3. Grafton
4. Tyler
5. Petersburg
6. Williamstown
Ravenswood has been at or near the top all season. They have a great group
of core runners that should excel at states. Magnolia will be right on
their tail and could win as well. Grafton, Tyler, Petersburg, Williamstown
and Weir are a few seconds back. Since a key component of the Weir squad,
Matt Apesos will have ran a brutal 800 just before, we dropped them off, but
they could grab a medal as well.
4x800 M 1. Magnolia
2. Grafton
3. Ravenswood
4. Gilmer
5. Ritchie
6. Doddridge
Magnolia has the states best time this season and the top regional result as
well. They may go under 8:20 and that should be enough to win. Grafton has
a number of good 800 runners that should come together for states. Ravenswood
also has a number of solid runners could challenge Grafton. Gilmer's team
has the potential to go as high as second, but has been less consistent.
Ritchie should also be in the mix of this group. Doddridge can load up a
little more heavily for regionals and should be able to grab the last spot.
St. Marys and Weir should also be in contention.
Shuttle 1. Ritchie
2. Magnolia
3. Berkeley Springs
4. St. Marys
5. Ravenswood
6. Bridgeport
This should be an incredible race. The first four teams have all clocked
times within .2 seconds of the others. Ritchie has the states best time and
a solid Magnolia squad has been consistent this year. Berkeley Springs and
St. Marys have clocked nearly identical times, but Berkeley Springs had a
better regional. Ravenswood really stepped up at regional to get away from
the rest of the field and Bridgeport also had a very good regional. Surprising
Cameron is on the doorstep and has come a very long way.
L Jump 1. Aaron Long Magnolia
2. Curt Simcox Oak Glen
3. Pat Bay Richwood
4. Jared Davis St. Marys
5. Ryan Chavez Wheeling Central
6. Rick Sanford Wayne
This is historically our worst event. Our picking of the winner has been
worse than the Sports Illustrated cover curse as our predicted winner hasn't
placed in each of the last three years, so watch out Aaron Long. Long has
been the classes best jumper pretty much all year. Simcox has been nailing
some nice jumps toward the end of the year as well. Pat Bay took second
in last year's rain soaked event and his experience and performance at that
level cause us to take him next. Jared Davis had the 4th best regional jump
and the 4th longest in the state this year so 4th looke like a logical spot.
Chavez pulled off a great jump in regionals with a mark that moves him out
beyond where the remainder of the field has been. Rick Sanford of Wayne has
the 6th best jump in the class this year and has been near 20 consistently.
Regional winner Walsky could score well and Oldfield placed 6th last year.
There are a ton of other jumpers that have been just over or under 20 feet
that could place as well.
H Jump 1. Jared Davis St. Marys
2. Eric Belancic Wheeling Central
3. Greg Preston Magnolia
4. Justin Vankirk Ravenswood
5. Josh Hayhurst Webster
6. Jeff Perrine Braxton
Davis has been ahead of the pack all year (at 6'8) and should easily defend
his championship. Belancic and Preston have both gone 6'4 with Belancic
coming out on top at the regional. Vankirk won his region and has been a
consistent jumper all year. Hayhurst has gone 6'5, but doesn't much to
back that up. Perrine also did well in regionals and has multiple 6'2 leaps.
Andrew Mercer of Tyler could also do well in this field but didn't have a
great regional.
Discus 1. Lucas Henger Ritchie
2. David Blair Magnolia
3. Ryan Burdette Poca
4. Zach Hall Williamstown
5. John Blankenship Pikeview
6. Nick Stewart Independence
Henger (2nd last year) has been at the top all season but can't have an off
day or Blair (5th last year) will get him. Burdette is the only other thrower
to come close to 150'0 feet this year and Hall had the 3rd best regional toss.
Blankenship has been improving and Stewart placed 5th in last year's event and
can't be overlooked despite his regional showing. A number of other throwers
have also gone over 140'0 with Ravenswood's Eric Reed having the states 4th
best mark this year. If he returns to early season form, he could go as high
as third.
mark
Shot 1. Brad Wilt Doddridge
2. Lucas Henger Ritchie
3. John Blankenship Pikeview
4. Chris Horn Magnolia
5. Josh Nicewarner Bridgeport
6. Ryan Burdette Poca
Wilt is the only AA thrower to have exceeded the 50'0 mark and he also had
the best regional toss. Henger is the only other thrower over 49 feet this
year and also had a good regional toss. Blankenship was a foot better at
regionals than any of the other throwers with Chris Horn falling next in
line of the regional marks. Nicewarner has gone over 48 feet and could place
much higher, but his consistency hasn't been as good. Burdette will have to
hold off Duncan and Barrett who both have better top marks but poorer regionals.
P Vault 1. Michael Powell St. Marys
2. Jason Buttrey Williamstown
3. Andrew Mercer Tyler Consolidated
4. Connor Robertson Winfield
5. Josh Wagner Ritchie
6. Garrett Butler Frankfort
Powell is the only jumper to go over 15 feet this year and has beat all
comers. Buttrey has jumps over 14 feet and a ton of experience at the state
level. Mercer has been progressing nicely to 13'6 this year. Robertson is the
defending champion and has gone 14 feet but has had some struggles this year.
Any of the three could contest Powell if he's a little off. Wagner has had
a nice run of 13 foot jumps this year and Butler placed 4th in the state last
year and could climb up this list as well. Aside from these six, the only
other jumper over 11'6 this year was Andrew Lowe of Greenbrier West who
could place if anyone has an off day or no heights.
High Point Predictions
1. Curt Simcox Oak Glen 26.5
2. Jason Baxter Magnolia 24
3. Jared Davis St. Marys 23
4. Josh Sheets Doddridge 20.25
5. Shane Bosley Berkeley Springs 20