Remember, this is only how it looks from the rankings heading into the regionals. This is not a prediction based on any analysis of races held during the season. If a team has fewer than five ranked runners, it is assumed that their first unranked runner would finish a certain number of places behind the last ranked runner, their second unranked runner would another number of places behind the last ranked runner, etc. Runners run above and below their ranking in every meet, and the Regionals will be no different.
Region I: This Region will advance 3 teams. It will also likely have the distinction of being the only Class AA Region that doesn't advance every complete team present. Williamstown looks like they have pretty firm control of 1st, and Ravenswood looks to have a solid lead for the 2nd spot. I have the 3rd spot decided by just 3 points with Tyler Consolidated edging out Doddridge for the spot. The Top 5 ranked runners not on one of those 3 teams are Oak Glen's Lacey Cameron (#3), Doddridge's Emily Cottrill (#4), Doddridge's Kaitlyn Key (#6), Weir's Lea Young (#8), and Weir's Olivia Shetler (#10). There is just one runner within 60 points of those 5 that is not on an expected advancing team. That is Oak Glen's Amelia Kampmeyer (#11). This also gives this Region the distinction of being the only Class AA Region in which every ranked runner is not expected to advance. No matter how it shakes out, there is going to be 1 team and at least one very good runner staying home (assuming everyone runs). Region I has 20 ranked runners. I estimate 30 runners competing in this race.
Region II: This Region will advance 3 teams. There are only 3 complete teams in the Region, but they're all pretty good. I have the 3 separated by just 8 points with Frankfort in 1st by 3 over Braxton, and Braxton over Lincoln by 5 for the 2nd spot. Individually, the Top 3 ranked runners that are not on one of those 3 teams are South Harrison's Savannah Holden (#7), Berkeley Springs' Bella Shoemaker (#12), and Philip Barbour's Kayla Baker (#14). The other two spots are up for grabs. A quick look at things says that the two most likely candidates for those spots are South Harrisons' Zoe Kirksey and South Harrison's Ela Kirksey. Region II has 22 ranked runners. I estimate 28 runners competing in this race.
Region III: This Region looks like it will advance just one team. No one else has had more than 3 runners compete during the season. So, that gives James Monroe an easy path to the win. Individually, the Top 3 ranked runners that are not on James Monroe are Bluefield's Makenzie Kendall (#2), Liberty Raleigh's Elise Yee (#3), and Liberty Raleigh's Lexi Yee (#6). That leaves the other two spots up for grabs. A quick look at things says that the two most likely candidates for those spots are River View's Chasity Kennedy and River View's Kaci Hatfield. Region III has 6 ranked runners. I estimate 17 runners competing in this race.
Region IV: This Region will advance 3 teams. Buffalo should easily take the top spot. I have Clay outdistancing Sissonville for 2nd. The Top 5 ranked runners not on one of those 3 teams are Logan's Keelyn Perry (#3), Wayne's Bella Cyrus (#5), Roane's Addie Taylor (#7), Roane's Josie Cox (#10), and Poca's Roxy Angell (#12). Cyrus hasn't competed since 9/20. If she's out, there are no more ranked runners. The next candidate would be Scott's Reagan Williams. Region IV has 12 ranked runners. I estimate 29 runners competing in this race.