Remember, this is only how it looks from the rankings heading into the regionals. This is not a prediction based on any analysis of races held during the season. If a team has fewer than five ranked runners, it is assumed that their first unranked runner would finish a certain number of places behind the last ranked runner, their second unranked runner would another number of places behind the last ranked runner, etc. Runners run above and below their ranking in every meet, and the Regionals will be no different.
Region I: This Region will advance 3 teams. The three appear to be pretty set with University on top, Morgantown in 2nd, and Preston in 3rd. I have everyone else at least 40 points behind these 3. The Top 5 ranked runners that are not on one of those 3 teams are Buckhannon-Upshur's Samantha Shreve (#1), John Marshall's Zoe Zervos (33), Wheeling Park's Brenna Tipton (#6), Bridgeport's Mikaela DeMoss (#11), and John Marshall' s Kalyn Reese (#14). No one else not on an expected advancing team is ranked within 60 points of this group The next one in line would be Brideport's Ashley McBrayer (#22). Region I has a whopping 62 ranked runners. While the changes in qualification criteria are an improvement, this loaded Region will still be sending some high performing girls home.
Region II: This Region will advance 3 teams. I have Jefferson with a slight 5 point edge over Washington for the top spot. The 3rd spot is wide open with just 14 points separating the remaining 4 teams. Each of the 4 teams has three ranked runners, so #4 and #5 are considered equivalent for each of them, so the nod goes to the team with the higher ranked top 3. In this case, that is Musselman. The Top 5 ranked runners that are not on one of those three teams are Martinsburg's Kayla Nelson (#5), Hedgesville's Abigail Snider (#7), Hedgesville's Allison Bray (#8), Spring Mills' Grace Fling (#11), and Spring Mills' Rayleigh Miller (#13). No one else not on an expected advancing team is ranked within 60 points of this group. The next one in line would be Martinsburg's Ariel Funkhouser (#15). The #4 and #5 runners in this race are going to determine a lot in terms of which teams advance. There are 21 ranked runners in Region II.
Region III: This Region will advance 3 teams. Greenbrier East has the top spot locked down. St. Albans appears to have an advantage for the 2nd spot, though it's not a huge one at just 12 points. George Washington appears to have the edge for the 3rd spot, but just by 5 points over Woodrow Wilson. The Top 5 ranked runners that are not on one of those teams are Oak Hill's Cara Swank (#9), Woodrow Wilson's Zimeng Skyler Ren (#10), Princeton's Asia Collins (#12), Woodrow Wilson's Leah White (#13), and Woodrow Wilson's Sofie White (#15). Runners within 60 points of that group that are not on an expected advancing team are Princeton's Jaycee Pritchett (#16) and Oak Hill's Leila Smith (#17). Region III has 27 ranked runners.
Region IV: This Region will advance 3 teams. Cabell Midland looks pretty solidly in the top spot with Parkersburg pretty solidly in 2nd. 3rd is going to be a battle. I have Hurricane and Huntington separated by just 1 point with Hurricane getting the edge. The Top 5 ranked runners that are not on an expected advancing team are Huntington's Laurel Johnson (#3), Parkersburg South's Jalyn Eddy (12th), Huntington's Claire Johnson (21st), Winfield's Kayla Taylor (24th), and Parkersburg South's Lexi McKinney (27th). Runners within 60 points of that group that are not on an expected advancing team are Huntington's Lucia Okuno (28th), Winfield's Sophie Briscoe (29th), and Huntington's Ella Austin (31st). This is another deep Region with Region IV showing 53 ranked runners.