Meet: Class AAA Girls State Meet Predictions
Location: Cabell Midland High School
Date: To be held October 28, 2023
Predicted Class AAA Girls Team Results
While not as much of a blowout as on the boys' side, there isn't expected to be much drama here either. Morgantown is
again the overwhelming favorite, coming in at 35 points and 4 individuals on the podium. It's not impossible for University
to catch them, but it will take a combination of a magnificent performance from University and a bit of a letdown from
Morgantown. I have those two teams well clear of the field. I show a 3-way battle for the 3rd spot with Cabell Midland
having the edge voer Preston and Parkersburg for the spot.
1. Morgantown 35
2. University 69
3. Cabell Midland 111
4. Preston 120
5. Parkersburg 132
6. Hurricane 153
7. St. Albans 214
8. Jefferson 237
9. Woodrow Wilson 239
10. Greenbrier East 244
11. Hampshire 263
12. Spring Mills 308
Predicted Class AAA Girls Top 25
The individual race is where things get pretty wide open. #1 ranked Samantha Shreve was hindered by a calf-injury at
the Regional and did not advance. Full disclosure - depending on how the regional shook out, I was going to slot her
into the 2nd spot. I've placed Madeline Gump into the top spot. Heading into October, I was pretty locked into that.
October has shaken things up a bit as she only got 5th at the OVAC and then got taken down at the Regional as well.
Still, I look at what she has done over the course of the season, and I think she's the most likely to be able to distance
herself from the field. Abigail Rogers is in the 2nd spot. She was the only one able to go with Gump at the Regional,
and then ran her down to take the win and was also one of the ones to beat her at the OVAC. Normally, two in a row is
enough for me to lean the other direction, but I'm going with my gut on this one. Ella Hardin is placed into the 3rd
position. She's the 2nd ranked one in the field and had what was statistically the top Regional performance in the field.
Adelyn Tager gets moved up into the 4th position. The rankings say otherwise, but they're reflective of her mid-season
injury that saw her lose 100 points in 2 races (25 each race, triggering an additional 50 point loss via the breakdown
provision). She had beaten Rogers in the two meets prior to the injury and is on the upswing now that she's returned.
She was 3rd in the very strong Region I race. Zoe Zervos is dropped into the 5th position. To make things nice and
complicated, she's the one who won the OVAC race over Gump and Rogers (and everyone else). Sophie Renner is in the 6th
spot. She had a very good run at the OVAC, where she beat Gump, but not such a great one at the Regional, where she
was beaten by 3 that I have placed behind her. I have Jennifer O'Palko in the 7th spot. She's been pretty solid all
season. She was beaten soundly by Renner at the OVAC and then returned the favor at the Regional. Neena McClintic is our
first wildcard. From September 2nd until the Regional, she did not race another top-end runner from inside the State.
Fortunately, she did find some strong out-of-state competition and fared well. In that September 2nd race, she was well
behind the top group, but that was before she really broke out. Maraid Johnson gets moveup up into the 9th spot based
on that strong Regional run. Hannah Phillips is the pick for the 10th spot. The only time she's been up against any
of the group ahead of her was at the Knight Night Relays. That's only a mile and a half and was in August. The relevance
of any of that is limited. Still, she was faster there than Tager, O'Palko, and Johnson.
The predicted top 25 are as follows. If you want to know where you are picked, just
send me an e-mail, and I'll tell you.
Place Score Name Year School
1 1 Gump, Madeline 12 Morgantown
2 2 Rogers, Abigail 9 University
3 3 Hardin, Ella 11 Hurricane
4 4 Tager, Adelyn 11 University
5 X Zervos, Zoe 9 John Marshall
6 5 Renner, Sophie 11 Morgantown
7 6 O'Palko, Jennifer 12 Morgantown
8 7 McClintic, Neena 9 Greenbrier East
9 8 Johnson, Maraid 11 Morgantown
10 9 Phillips, Hannah 11 Jefferson
11 X Johnson, Laurel 9 Huntington
12 10 von Boetticher, Claire 11 University
13 11 Menear, Ramsee 9 Hurricane
14 X Yates, Sadie 9 Musselman
15 12 Coakley, Emma 10 Cabell Midland
16 13 Torman, Abigail 10 St. Albans
17 X Hosaflook, Ellie 12 Ripley
18 14 Simmons, Hallie 11 Preston
19 15 Hawkins, Allison 9 Morgantown
20 16 Hawkins, Lauren 9 Morgantown
21 17 Bell, Sophia 11 University
22 18 Nichols, Bailey 10 Hampshire
23 19 Myers, Delilah 10 Preston
24 20 Hazelett, Quinn 11 Cabell Midland
25 21 White, Ella 12 Preston