Regional Preview - Class AAA Girls

Remember, this is only how it looks from the rankings heading into the regionals. This is not a prediction based on any analysis of races held during the season. If a team has fewer than five ranked runners, it is assumed that their first unranked runner would finish three (or five) places behind the last ranked runner, their second unranked runner would finish six (or ten) places behind the last ranked runner, etc. Runners run above and below their ranking in every meet, and the Regionals will be no different. The important thing is that if you have five runners, get them to the starting line. If you have 7, get them to the line. If you only have 3...get them to the line. Your region may be depending on you.

AAA Girls

Region I: This Region should advance 3 teams. The three appear to be pretty set with Morgantown on top, University in 2nd, and Preston in 3rd. I show everyone else over 30 points behind these three. 10 Individuals will advance. The current top 10 are Samantha Shreve, Madeline Gump, Sophie Renner, Zoe Zervos, Abigail Rogers, Jennifer O'Palko, Claire von Boetticher, Maraid Johnson, Adelyn Tager, and Hallie Simmons. Tager has been out for a couple meets, and I don't know about her availability for this meet. Allison Hawkins would be next in line. There are no runners within 60 points of the top 10 who are not on an expected advancing team. The closest is John Marshall's Rilee Storm (#17). As always, this Region is loaded. There are 65 ranked runners in Region I. 39 of them would be expected to advance in Region II. 33 would be expected to advance from Region III. 17 would be expected to advance from Region IV.

Region II: This Region should advance 3 teams. Jefferson appears to have a pretty solid grip on the top spot if they're at full staff. Hampshire looks pretty solid for 2nd. 3rd should be fun as I show 3 teams within 10 points of each other with Hedgesville having just a 2 point advantage over Spring Mills for the 3rd spot. 10 Individuals will advance. The current top 10 are Hannah Phillips, Sadie Yates, Bailey Nichols, Kayla Nelson, Dalija Dulaney, Allison Bray, Faith Foglesong, Abigail Snider, Emily Cisar, and Grace Fling. There is only one runner within 60 points of the top 10 not on an expected advancing team. That is Washington's Breanna Trujillo (13th). There are 23 ranked runners in Region II.

Region III: It looks like this Region will only advance 2 teams. Woodrow Wilson and St. Albans should have a nice duel for the top spot. I show Woodrow with just a 4 point advantage. I have everyone else at least 20 points behind. 10 Individuals will advance. The current top 10 are Neena McClintic, Abigail Torman, Lauren Curtis, Ava Mitias, Cecilia Lindley, Kyndall Ince, Makayla Carter, Ava Templeton, Chrissa Mayfield, and Liza Westerman. Runners within 60 points of the top 10 not on an expected advancing team are George Washington's Riya Jones (12th), and Greenbrier East's Luella Mansheim (13th). There are 28 ranked runners in Region III.

Region IV: This Region should advance 3 teams. The three appear pretty set, but the order is in question. I show Cabell Midland in the top spot by 9 points with Hurricane in 2nd, just 1 point ahead of Parkersburg. Cabell Midland's top ranked runner hasn't competed since 9/23. If she's out, I have quite the battle with the 3 teams separated by just 1 point and Parkersburg coming out on top. However, Parkersburg's 2nd ranked runner missed the conference meet. Those three teams should be safe regardless as I show the next team 35 points behind them. Individually, if everyone gets their kids to the starting line, they can get 11 to advance. In order for this to happen, Lincoln has to get their 5 and Ripley has to get their 6 on the starting line, and everyone else has to get their 7. It's pretty shakey, but we're going with it. The current top 11 are Ella Hardin, Laurel Johnson, Ramsee Menear, Ellie Hosaflook, Quinn Hazelett, Emma Coakley, Morgan Metz, Abbie Bacorn, Maya Casto, Lexi Elmore, and Ellit Hines. There are no runners within 60 points of the top 11 who aren't on an expected advancing team. The closest is Parkersburg South's Lexi McKinney (#21). There are 42 ranked runners in Region IV.