2023 PREDICTION ANALYSIS + FINAL THOUGHTS

Below, you'll find an analysis of how well my program was able to predict each of the six races at the state meet. The first number listed is the average difference between runners' places and their projected places. The second number is the average difference in seconds between runners' times and their projected times. The fractions (x/10, x/15, x/25) represent how many of the top 10, 15, and 25 I was able to get correct. Below that, I describe which teams finished ahead/below projections.

(Scroll to bottom of the page for final thoughts)

A BOYS

6.41

26.70

Got Individual Champion

8/10, 14/15, 22/25

A GIRLS

3.95

37.79

Got Individual Champion

9/10, 13/15, 22/25

AA BOYS

5.00

19.63

Got Individual Champion

9/10, 12/15, 22/25

AA GIRLS

5.70

36.94

Missed Individual Champion

7/10, 9/15, 22/25

AAA BOYS

6.00

22.61

Got Individual Champion

9/10, 11/15, 20/25

AAA GIRLS

7.01

41.18

Got Individual Champion

8/10, 11/15, 23/25

First off, I'd like to offer a congratulations to all of our team and individual champions for the year. West Virginia Cross Country continues to get more and more competitive and impressive thanks to all of the hard work everyone is putting in and it's exciting to follow.

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to do as much coverage this year as I did last year due to a busy semester and some problems with the program. With that said, its predictions for the state meet were far and away better than they were last year, and with one more year of improvements... I think it can finally top RunWV Josh (haha).

Of course, perfect accuracy will never be attainable, because in the end, predictions and rankings don't determine who's better than who, and the program will never be able to predict clutch performances that blow everyone’s expectations out of the water.

I'd like to thank everyone who expressed interest in the program throughout the year. I'm looking forward to seeing what the track season holds and I wish everyone best of luck in their winter training.

As always, feel free to shoot me an email if you have any questions about the program.