2023 WVSSAC AAA Cross Country Championships 10/24 Analysis and Prediction @ Cabell (Diff: 1.0000) With 4 guys in the top 10, University should run away with the team title, marking their 5th consecutive state meet win. The battle for 2nd, however, should be tightly contested. I have Morgantown edging out Cabell Midland and Hurricane by 7 and 8 points respectively. Coming off a strong regional performance as a team, they're deep through 7, and could easily put 5 in the top 30. Cabell's 4th and 5th men, Jacob Barthlow and Colson Elswick could potentially make up over 5 spots each with repeats of their regional performances making Cabell a strong candidate for an upset. Hurricane is in a similar boat, where if many of their runners repeat their performances from the MSAC championships (which was at the state meet course), they could make some big jumps, however their regional showing wasn't quite as potent as Morgantown's or Cabell's. ========================= TEAM SCORES University 42 Morgantown 101 Cabell Midland 108 Hurricane 109 Wheeling Park 116 Jefferson 129 Parkersburg 165 Woodrow Wilson 219 George Washington 222 Hampshire 260 Riverside Wv 312 Washington Wv 339 =============================== Ty Steorts and Aaron Kidd should have the 1st and 2nd spots on lock. They are likely the strongest same-team duo in state history, and come in with strong consistency ratings, meaning they're unlikely to run far off projections. Aidan Kneeland has run really well down the stretch and is a strong pick for 3rd. Spots 4-9 will likely see a lot of shuffling. They are only separated by 12 seconds, and they all put up similar regional performances. Notably, 4 of those 6 runners, Drew Zundell (projected 4th), Jacob West (6th), Tyler Umbright (7th) and Ethan Conroy (9th) are all from University, and could be dangerous as a pack. Seth Franke, slated 8th, proved he could hang right with them at OVACs and regionals, and should have no problem doing the same here. Tristan Blatt gets the 5th spot but having ran a 16:01 at MSAC (also at state meet course), he'll likely contend with Zundell for the 4th spot. Troy Zorick is slated for 10th and could potentially break into University's pack with a good day. Connor Myers's projection is likely undershot due to the fact that he had little pressure at the regional meet and likely could've ran faster if he needed to. He'll be able to make a run for the top 10. Sam Dodson and Brandon Canaday had almost identical regional performances (when converted) and could easily flip or even sneak into the top 10 themselves. *Runners marked "Top10 Contndr" have a performance on record from the past month that, when converted to the State Meet course, would place them in the top 10. **Runners at the bottom of the prediction labeled "INJ?" are present in the state meet roster but have not raced at all in October. If you see someone you know is performing marked as injured, let me know in an email. INDIVIDUAL RESULTS 1 (1) Ty Steorts Hurricane 15:18.7 2 (2) Aaron Kidd Hurricane 15:28.9 3 (3) Aidan Kneeland Cabell Midland 15:47.4 4 (4) Drew Zundell University 16:04.8 5 (5) Tristan Blatt Cabell Midland 16:07.4 6 (6) Jacob West University 16:07.8 7 (7) Tyler Umbright University 16:11.5 8 (8) Seth Franke Wheeling Park 16:13.3 9 (9) Ethan Conroy University 16:16.5 10 (X) Troy Zorick Bridgeport Wv 16:21.3 11 (10) Conner Myers Jefferson 16:23.6 Top10 Contndr 12 (X) Sam Dodson Bridgeport Wv 16:34.7 Top10 Contndr 13 (11) Brandon Canaday Woodrow Wilson 16:35.0 Top10 Contndr 14 (X) Damian Rumer Preston 16:39.4 15 (X) Andrew Bowen Huntington 16:42.2 16 (12) Redick Moore Wheeling Park 16:45.5 17 (13) Quinn Mudry Morgantown 16:46.5 18 (14) Owen Thompson Jefferson 16:47.7 19 (15) Andrew Carlton Morgantown 16:49.9 20 (16) Jack Overfield University 16:50.4 21 (17) Connor George Parkersburg 16:53.9 22 (18) Zachary Workman Morgantown 16:56.8 23 (19) Mason Lewis Hurricane 16:57.5 24 (20) Gavin Whorton University 16:58.6 25 (21) Jack Mills Parkersburg 16:59.8 26 (22) Isaak Nizami Wheeling Park 17:00.8 27 (23) Dylan Dial Cabell Midland 17:01.8 28 (24) Skylar Hudnall Riverside Wv 17:04.1 29 (25) Logan Conroy University 17:09.7 30 (26) Finlay Lorimer Morgantown 17:10.3 31 (27) Kirklen Hinamon George Washington 17:11.7 32 (28) Wyatt Thorne Hampshire 17:13.1 33 (29) Donald Adjeroh Morgantown 17:22.9 34 (30) Christian Rutherford Parkersburg 17:23.2 35 (31) Jacob Murphy Wheeling Park 17:24.0 36 (32) James Stacy Morgantown 17:27.4 37 (33) Gage Fox George Washington 17:28.1 38 (34) Travis Jenkins Jefferson 17:30.5 39 (35) Reese Hickey Jefferson 17:33.3 40 (36) Shane Burkhardt Jefferson 17:34.6 41 (37) Caleb Young Morgantown 17:36.3 42 (38) Jacob Barthlow Cabell Midland 17:39.9 43 (39) Colson Elswick Cabell Midland 17:42.7 44 (40) Shawn Swartz Jefferson 17:53.7 45 (41) Paxton Haddox Hurricane 17:55.7 46 (42) Augustin Hall Jefferson 17:58.9 47 (X) Zachary Neal Princeton Wv 18:00.8 48 (43) Brian Gonzalez Wheeling Park 18:02.6 49 (X) Silas Yates Musselman 18:03.5 50 (44) Michael Haddadin Woodrow Wilson 18:10.1 51 (45) Gavin Baldwin George Washington 18:11.8 52 (46) Landon Kennedy Hurricane 18:12.7 53 (47) Ricardo Salazar Parkersburg 18:13.7 54 (X) Justin Moss Musselman 18:14.0 55 (48) Kyle Peters Woodrow Wilson 18:14.9 56 (49) Robbie Brown George Washington 18:15.6 57 (50) Jackson Wharton Parkersburg 18:17.1 58 (51) Richard Hudson Hampshire 18:17.5 59 (52) Gabriel High Hurricane 18:25.3 60 (X) Josiah Lavender St. Albans 18:26.7 61 (53) Griffin Brunty Cabell Midland 18:27.3 62 (54) Aj Atkinson Washington Wv 18:32.9 63 (55) Luca Swartz Wheeling Park 18:35.1 64 (56) Vance Lindley Woodrow Wilson 18:36.3 65 (57) Ethan Richman Hampshire 18:37.6 66 (58) Landon Jarrell Cabell Midland 18:40.7 67 (59) Caden Davis Hampshire 18:53.5 68 (X) Micah Hale Capital 18:53.8 69 (60) Robert Shirey Woodrow Wilson 18:55.7 70 (61) Tyler Moffett Riverside Wv 18:57.2 71 (62) Caleb Burgos Washington Wv 18:59.2 72 (63) Daniel Martin Parkersburg 19:03.4 73 (64) Caleb Hodges Hurricane 19:06.5 74 (65) Brady Stump Hampshire 19:07.1 75 (66) Thomas Burns Wheeling Park 19:11.7 76 (67) Mason Nettles Woodrow Wilson 19:14.9 77 (68) Ian Hanson George Washington 19:21.1 78 (69) James Lewis Parkersburg 19:23.5 79 (70) Jackson Fiolek Washington Wv 19:28.8 80 (71) Wyatt Chestnut Riverside Wv 19:49.0 81 (72) Tanner Ansel Hampshire 19:50.0 82 (73) William Margolis George Washington 20:12.1 83 (74) Hadrian Schnepp Hampshire 20:12.9 84 (75) Ethan Meagher Washington Wv 20:32.4 85 (76) Jonah Chambers Riverside Wv 20:46.6 86 (77) Nash Porter George Washington 20:47.9 87 (78) William Greenwood Washington Wv 20:51.2 88 (79) Trey Sides Woodrow Wilson 21:29.5 89 (80) Joseph Holstein Riverside Wv 21:37.3 90 (81) Alejandro Nance Washington Wv 21:38.0 91 (82) Anghus Mcgowan Washington Wv 21:39.3 92 (83) Tyler Elswick Riverside Wv 28:32.2 93 (84) Eric Neal Riverside Wv 31:10.0 X (X) Brady Whitehead Woodrow Wilson INJ?