2023 WVSSAC A Cross Country Championships 10/24 Prediction & Analysis @ Cabell (Diff: 1.0000) Buffalo looks to have a solid hold on 1st place on account of their strong front end. Their duo of Patrick Reilly and Nick Pitchford should handily have 2 of the top 3 spots, and, coming off of a very strong regional performance, teammate Jackson Mallett could slot in right behind them. Williamstown enters the meet deeper through 4 than Buffalo, however they don't have many opportunities to pick up spots up front considering their top 4 are already within the top 12 scoring positions. Their best chance to pull off an upset is if their 5 man (Zander Boyce) can pick up many spots, while Buffalo's 4 and 5 run behind projections. Boyce hasn't shown great consistency throughout the year, but had a handful of midseason races that show he has the potential to cut at least 30 seconds from his projection which would massively increase Williamstown's chances. ========================= TEAM SCORES Buffalo 51 Williamstown Wv 64 Doddridge County 85 Charleston Catholi 106 Saint Marys 134 Trinity Christian 154 Ritchie County 171 Tucker County 176 Magnolia 180 James Monroe 279 ========================= Despite only having a 13-second projected lead, no one else in the top 10 has touched Patrick Reilly's 3 best (converted) performances, so he should have a solid hold on the individual title. His teammate Nick Pitchford ran very well in his two most recent races coming into states, so he gets the nod for 2nd, however, Carter Sias could easily make a run for the spot. He blew out the competition at his regional race, meaning he probably could've run much faster if he needed to which would've improved his projection. Julian Johnson boasts potentially the best consistency rating in the state, so he's likely to run close to his projection, however things get a bit crazy in the 5-9 spots, and there are many runners in that group that could challenge him for 4th place. Slotted at 5th, Donovan Tanouye has multiple performances on record that could put him into the top 3. As reigning state champion, Aidan Scott probably has the best chance to make a big move if he runs to his full potential. Amos Kimble has been solid all year and gets the pick for 7th. Jackson Mallett and Landen Davis had very strong regional performances, with the former finishing right behind Johnson and the latter beating Tanouye, Kimble and Scott. With similar performances, they could easily find themselves in the top 5. Frank Conner gets the 10th spot but should be contested by Max Dauch who narrowly beat him in their conference and regional meets. Coming off of a strong regional performance, Will Coiner could make a run for the top 10, and Dylan Malelopszy, despite a shaky regional performance, only finished 5 seconds behind Kimble in their conference race and could easily jump into the top 10 as well. *Runners marked "Top10 Contndr" have a performance on record from the past month that, when converted to the State Meet course, would place them in the top 10. **Runners at the bottom of the prediction labeled "INJ?" are present in the state meet roster but have not raced at all in October. If you see someone you know is performing marked as injured, let me know in an email. 1 (1) Patrick Reilly Buffalo 16:33.2 2 (2) Nicholas Pitchford Buffalo 16:46.0 3 (3) Carter Sias Doddridge County 16:50.1 4 (4) Julian Johnson Williamstown Wv 16:55.2 5 (X) Donovan Tanouye Paw Paw 17:01.7 6 (X) Aidan Scott Wheeling Central 17:10.2 7 (X) Amos Kimble Tyler Consolidated 17:17.1 8 (5) Jackson Mallett Buffalo 17:20.3 9 (6) Landen Davis Magnolia 17:23.2 10 (7) Frank Conner Williamstown Wv 17:24.4 11 (8) Max Dauch Saint Marys 17:25.6 Top10 Contndr 12 (9) Will Coiner Williamstown Wv 17:34.8 Top10 Contndr 13 (10) Dylan Malelopszy Ritchie County 17:53.0 Top10 Contndr 14 (11) Gunner Kimball Doddridge County 17:56.6 15 (X) Evan Mcelwayne Notre Dame 18:01.8 16 (12) Chase Pickering Williamstown Wv 18:04.1 17 (X) Travis Moore Tyler Consolidated 18:04.5 18 (X) Thunder Gill Pendleton County W 18:06.4 19 (13) Cameron Judy Tucker County 18:06.6 20 (14) Isaac Collins Charleston Catholi 18:10.1 21 (15) Will Barton Charleston Catholi 18:11.9 22 (16) Dylan Blackshire Buffalo 18:13.4 23 (X) David Urso Notre Dame 18:14.2 24 (17) Miles Steptoe Trinity Christian 18:16.1 25 (18) Shiv Patel Magnolia 18:21.1 26 (19) Parker Barnes Saint Marys 18:24.0 27 (X) Sean Bell South Harrison 18:27.9 28 (X) Matthew Balis Wirt County 18:35.5 29 (20) Noah Bodkin Doddridge County 18:35.8 30 (21) Josh Berke Doddridge County 18:37.0 31 (X) Riley Dennis Paden City 18:41.6 32 (22) Peter Basdekis Charleston Catholi 18:46.3 33 (23) Tristan Murner Saint Marys 18:47.0 34 (24) Hunter Perry Charleston Catholi 18:50.0 35 (25) Cayden Moore Ritchie County 18:54.1 36 (26) Alex Boyles Tucker County 18:54.7 37 (27) Ronnie Blackshire Buffalo 18:58.4 38 (28) Ethan Tomlinson Trinity Christian 19:00.5 39 (29) Robert Kincaid Trinity Christian 19:00.9 40 (30) Jerod Trent Doddridge County 19:02.6 41 (31) Ewan Becher Charleston Catholi 19:05.4 42 (X) Gavin Wilburn Ravenswood 19:06.8 43 (32) Zander Boyce Williamstown Wv 19:07.9 44 (33) Wesley Mallett Buffalo 19:09.1 45 (34) Cory Swentzel Doddridge County 19:11.5 46 (35) Samuel Gola Doddridge County 19:12.5 47 (X) Wyatt Sharpless Clay-battelle 19:13.3 48 (36) Nathan Harris Buffalo 19:13.6 49 (37) Hamilton Breakey Trinity Christian 19:16.5 50 (38) Desmond Parks Saint Marys 19:18.0 51 (39) Parker Werkau Magnolia 19:23.3 52 (40) Alex Owens Ritchie County 19:24.3 53 (41) Charlie Barton Charleston Catholi 19:35.6 54 (42) Lynk Suesli Tucker County 19:37.3 55 (43) Chase Livengood Trinity Christian 19:38.2 56 (44) Seth Cronin Ritchie County 19:41.1 57 (45) Dickinson Gould Charleston Catholi 19:47.2 58 (46) Micah Evans Saint Marys 19:53.9 59 (47) Allan Boyles Tucker County 19:55.6 60 (48) Nate Ricottilli Tucker County 19:59.8 61 (49) Wyatt Lilly James Monroe 20:00.7 62 (50) Adam Bennett Saint Marys 20:01.1 63 (51) Christian Houser Saint Marys 20:26.1 64 (52) Owen Chesser Ritchie County 20:30.3 65 (53) William Jackson James Monroe 20:35.3 66 (54) Eli Broyles James Monroe 20:40.4 67 (55) Hunter Blake Seese Ritchie County 21:00.8 68 (56) Ryan Scott Tucker County 21:27.1 69 (57) Jonathan Stringer Ritchie County 21:34.8 70 (58) Corey Trotto Magnolia 21:49.6 71 (59) Hayden Thorne Magnolia 21:59.0 72 (60) Bryceson Whitt James Monroe 22:02.5 73 (61) Bradford Stone Williamstown Wv 22:18.1 74 (62) Carter Montgomery Williamstown Wv 22:23.6 75 (63) Shane Arthur James Monroe 23:58.7 76 (64) Ivan Lothes Tucker County 24:10.2 77 (X) Dakota Pettry Summers County 25:00.0 78 (65) Benjamin Akers Trinity Christian 26:05.8 XX (X) Bryson Sanders Trinity Christian INJ? XX (X) Nicolas Matheney Magnolia INJ?