Regional Preview - Class AAA Girls

Remember, this is only how it looks from the rankings heading into the regionals. This is not a prediction based on any analysis of races held during the season. If a team has fewer than five ranked runners, it is assumed that their first unranked runner would finish three (or five) places behind the last ranked runner, their second unranked runner would finish six (or 10) places behind the last ranked runner, etc. Runners run above and below their ranking in every meet, and the Regionals will be no different. The important thing is that if you have five runners, get them to the starting line. If you can come up with 7, get them on the line. If you only have 3, get them on the line. Your region may be depending on you.

AAA Girls

Region I: This Region should advance three teams. Morgantown is the clear class of the field again with 7 of the top 11 ranked runners. #1 Ranked Irene Riggs has not competed since September 10th. For purposes of this preview, I will assume that she is not available. With or without her, Morgantown should run away with the Regional title. The rankings show them scoring fewer than half the points of the runner-up. Then things get very interesting. We're once again in the very unfortunate situation in which 4 of the top 5 ranked teams in the State reside in this Region. So, one of our top 5 teams will not be making the trip to Ona. I only show 16 points between the three, so it could go any which way. As it is, University appears to have a slight edge for the 2nd spot with Buckhannon-Upshur holding the edge for the 3rd position. Preston would be on the outside looking in. However, note that Preston just beat Buckhannon-Upshur for the Big 10 Title, so this is very much going to be a fight to the finish. Unfortunately, it looks like we will only get 10 individuals to advance from this Region. Currently, the top 10 are (and again, this assumes that Irene Riggs will not compete) Lydia Falkenstein, Madeline Gump, Amelia Summers, Claire von Boetticher, Adelyn Tager, Sophie Renner, Anna Lester, Samantha Shreve, Jennifer O'Palko, and Maraid Johnson. Runners within 60 points of the top 10 are Preston's Hallie Simmons (#11), John Marshall's Rilee Storm (#12), Preston's Delilah Myers (#13), Preston's Ella White (#14), and Bridgeport's Kaitlin Pappas (#15). Pappas would be ranked 2nd, 3rd, and 8th in the other Regions. There are 60 ranked runners in Region I.

Region II: This Region should advance 3 teams. There are a couple question marks in this one as well. Hedgesville's Abigail Snider hasn't competed since September 10th. Jefferson's Emily Cisar hasn't competed since September 24th. For purposes of this preview, I am assuming that Snider will not compete and that Cisar will. Jefferson is the clear cut favorite with or without Cisar. They should win this Region with ease. Martinsburg looks to have a slight edge over Hampshire for the 2nd spot. If Snider were to compete and be at her ranked level, that would put Hedgesville very much in the mix, scoring just a point behind Hampshire in that scenario. 10 Individuals will advance. The current top 10 are Hannah Phillips, Layla Parker, Allison Bray, Claire Burkhardt, Bailey Nichols, Emily Cisar, Faith Foglesong, Millie Cushwa, Giovanna Matthews, and Grace Fling. Runners within 60 points of the top 10 and not on and expected advancing team include Spring Mills' Faith Bush (#11), Hedgesville's Abigail Snider (#12), Musselman's Lua Folse-Tubio (#13), and Washington's Breanna Trujillo (#14). There are 27 ranked runners in Region II.

Region III: This Region should advance three teams. It's a little shaky, though, as everyone who has ran a compmlete team at any point this season must get 5 to the line on Thursday, and some of the teams haven't consistently had 5. Get on the line ladies. For purposes of this preview, I am assuming that we get the needed numbers to advance 3 teams. Woodrow Wilson looks to have a pretty solid edge for the top spot. Greenbrier East appears to have the edge for the 2nd spot over George Washington, though I show it by just 8 points. I am projecting just 10 individuals to advance from this Region. The current top 10 are Abigail Torman, Ava Mitias, Kyndall Ince, Lauren Curtis, Abigail Londeree, Cecelia Lindley, Makayla Carter, Abby Dixon, Asia Collins, and Chriss Mayfield. Runners within 60 points of the top 10 and not on an expected advancing team are Princeton's Hayley Collins (#11) and South Charleston's Jessica West (#13). There are 26 ranked runners in Region III.

Region IV: This Region should advance three teams. I show 8 complete teams competing, but there are a few that havne't been complete consistently, so there is a possibility that we only get two. That should not happen, and for purposes of this preview, I'm assuming that we get to the line and get 3 teams out. There are a couple question marks in this as well with Cabell Midland's Tatum McKenna not competing since September 17th, Ripley's Opal Huffman not competing since September 24th, and Huntington's Kylie Newman not competing since September 10th. For purposes of the preview, I assumed that McKenna and Newman would not compete. Cabell Midland should win pretty handily with our without McKenna. Hurricane appears to have a pretty good grip on the 2nd spot. The 3rd spot looks like a fight between Parkersburg and Ripley, and I have Parkersburg coming out on top by 7 points. If Huffman doesn't run, that spread gets wider. I think we'll probably only get 10 individuals to advance. There is a shot at 11, but I'm going to assume 10. The current top 10 are Audrey Hall, Ella Hardin, Ellie Hosaflook, Savannah Pritt, Quinn Hazelett, Emma Coakley, Kate Meek, Ellie Hines, Opal Huffman, and Aubrey Lantz. McKenna would be #5 if she were to compete. There are no runners within 60 points of the top 10 and not on an expected advancing team. The closest is Spring Valley's Mackenzie Payne (#17). There are 40 ranked runners in Region IV.