XCP (Cross Country Predictor)

The Cross Country Predictor is a program designed to automatically predict cross country meets based on data from West Virginia high school races pulled in from 2018 up to the present day. Without getting into too much technical jargon, the program works by ranking the difficulty of nearly every course in the state by comparing the performances of every individual runner across all of the courses they have run in a given season. These course rankings essentially allow every race result to be converted to a singe standard that is consistent no matter how difficult the course. For example, a time of 18:50.5 on the very difficult Davis and Elkins course would be considered exactly as good as a 17:23.3 on the much easier state meet course at Cabell Midland. With every result from every runner in the state converted to the same standard, it becomes easy to rank individuals, and predict what they would run on any given course. As an added measure of accuracy, the program also determines how well each individual performs on hillier courses compared to flatter courses, and takes that into account when making predictions.

Throughout the course of the season, expect to see many major invites within the state pop up with predictions within a week before the race. Individual and Power Rankings will also be maintained. Take note that the Power Rankings are adjusted to consider the difficulty of the state meet course and thus do not directly correspond to the Individual Rankings. If you see yourself ranked lower (or higher) than you think you should be in the individual rankings or a race prediction, that is likely because it is early in the season and the program does not have much data to go off of yet. It will likely hit peak accuracy around early October, just before championship season begins. In any case, feel free to use the program as motivation to climb up the rankings or outperform a prediction. After all, there is a reason we actually run the races instead of just letting the predictions do the talking.