2022 WVSSAC AAA Cross Country Championships 10/25 Prediction & Analysis
@ Cabell (Diff: 1.0223)
**Runners marked "Top10 Contndr" have a performance on record that, when converted
to the State Meet course, would place them in the top 10.
Scroll to bottom of page for additional meet analysis.
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TEAM SCORES
Morgantown 28
Cabell Midland 86
University 101
Jefferson 105
Buckhannon-upshur 125
Hurricane 147
Parkersburg 180
Martinsburg 252
Hampshire 269
Woodrow Wilson 269
Greenbrier East 290
George Washington 308
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1 (1) Irene Riggs Morgantown 17:22.3
2 (2) Audrey Hall Hurricane 18:50.9
3 (3) Lydia Falkenstein Buckhannon-upshur 18:54.3
4 (4) Amelia Summers Morgantown 19:03.1
5 (5) Madeline Gump Morgantown 19:04.3
6 (6) Anna Lester Morgantown 19:22.1
7 (7) Adelyn Tager University 19:23.6
8 (8) Claire Von Boetticher University 19:23.8
9 (9) Ella Hardin Hurricane 19:27.7
10 (10) Savannah Pritt Cabell Midland 19:27.8
11 (11) Hannah Phillips Jefferson 19:31.5 Top10 Contndr
12 (12) Sophie Renner Morgantown 19:41.3 Top10 Contndr
13 (13) Samantha Shreve Buckhannon-upshur 19:52.5 Top10 Contndr
14 (X) Ellie Hosaflook Ripley 19:57.8 Top10 Contndr
15 (14) Maraid Johnson Morgantown 20:04.0
16 (15) Quinn Hazelett Cabell Midland 20:20.9
17 (16) Jennifer O'palko Morgantown 20:30.8
18 (X) Abigail Torman St. Albans 20:44.2
19 (17) Layla Parker Jefferson 20:46.5
20 (18) Tatum Mckenna Cabell Midland 20:49.6
21 (19) Caroline Ballard University 20:50.7
22 (20) Claire Burkhardt Jefferson 20:56.5
23 (21) Kate Meek Cabell Midland 21:06.1
24 (22) Emma Coakley Cabell Midland 21:08.8
25 (23) Mia Sappey Buckhannon-upshur 21:21.2
26 (24) Faith Foglesong Jefferson 21:28.1
27 (X) Allison Bray Hedgesville 21:28.6
28 (25) Aubrey Lantz Parkersburg 21:30.5
29 (26) Ellie Hines Parkersburg 21:39.8
30 (27) Hadley Addis Cabell Midland 21:41.0
31 (28) Ava Mitias George Washington 21:44.0
32 (29) Katie Rutherford Parkersburg 21:45.9
33 (30) Kate Dempsey Hurricane 21:57.7
34 (31) Abby Wendell Cabell Midland 22:02.0
35 (32) Sophia Bell University 22:04.0
36 (33) Emily Cisar Jefferson 22:08.1
37 (34) Lauren Curtis Woodrow Wilson 22:09.7
38 (35) Shatyra Turner University 22:10.0
39 (36) Shannen Adkins Hurricane 22:10.9
40 (37) Kyndall Ince Woodrow Wilson 22:11.1
41 (38) Bailey Nichols Hampshire 22:13.7
42 (39) Haley Kramer University 22:17.2
43 (X) Faith Bush Spring Mills 22:18.2
44 (40) Abigail Londeree Greenbrier East 22:23.7
45 (41) Norah Keenan Jefferson 22:26.6
46 (42) Miah Reger Buckhannon-upshur 22:28.1
47 (43) Giovanna Matthews Hampshire 22:33.3
48 (44) Jessica Williams Buckhannon-upshur 22:35.9
49 (45) Millie Cushwa Martinsburg 22:39.9
50 (46) Helen Honecker University 22:49.3
51 (47) Abby Dixon Greenbrier East 22:54.9
52 (48) Kayla Nelson Martinsburg 23:03.2
53 (49) Olivia Mcewuen Parkersburg 23:11.5
54 (X) Lua Folse-tubio Musselman 23:13.5
55 (50) Brianna Dalton Buckhannon-upshur 23:19.0
56 (51) Alyssa Barker Parkersburg 23:20.5
57 (52) Mary-kate Mackinnon Martinsburg 23:25.6
58 (53) Eva Craigie Martinsburg 23:27.0
59 (54) Betsy Cushwa Martinsburg 23:34.8
60 (55) Kaiman Alter Martinsburg 23:39.1
61 (56) Keira Mcpeek Parkersburg 23:40.1
62 (57) Peyton Asbury Hampshire 23:42.5
63 (X) Hayley Collins Princeton Wv 23:46.1
64 (58) Mable Catgreave Jefferson 23:47.4
65 (59) Pressley Bowers Buckhannon-upshur 23:52.8
66 (60) Kaitlyn Dice Hampshire 23:56.2
67 (61) Annie Whited Greenbrier East 24:08.9
68 (62) Olivia Carpenter Parkersburg 24:12.8
69 (63) Riya Jones George Washington 24:15.6
70 (64) Cecilia Lindley Woodrow Wilson 24:22.0
71 (65) Madison Farrish Woodrow Wilson 24:22.6
72 (66) Phoebe Porter Martinsburg 24:27.1
73 (67) Maisie Bishop George Washington 24:29.0
74 (68) Luella Mansheim Greenbrier East 24:30.2
75 (69) Hannah Keiling Woodrow Wilson 24:44.3
76 (70) Hadley Lawson Hurricane 24:45.6
77 (71) Ambrielle Odom Hampshire 24:47.7
78 (72) Clare James George Washington 24:49.2
79 (73) Lani Misch Woodrow Wilson 25:08.6
80 (74) Maddie Lilly Greenbrier East 25:09.3
81 (75) Kaylee Whitman Hurricane 25:10.0
82 (76) Abigail Hall Hampshire 25:21.1
83 (77) Addie Poling Hurricane 25:22.8
84 (X) Chrissa Mayfield Oak Hill Wv 25:24.9
85 (78) Olivia Sizemore George Washington 25:26.1
86 (79) Elise Vredeveld Woodrow Wilson 25:33.7
87 (80) Elowyn Boward Hampshire 25:43.0
88 (81) Reese Thornhill George Washington 26:24.3
89 (82) Nadia Flores George Washington 26:29.7
90 (83) Carter Wolfe Greenbrier East 27:42.5
91 (84) Emmajo Palmer Greenbrier East 28:21.7
Team Title Analysis:
The odds of Morgantown not winning the State Title come in at roughly 1 to 10000. That number wasn't generated by my program or anything, but I would say it's still a safe estimate, seeing as how their projected lead over second place is 58 points. With that said, the battle for second should prove to be a bit more interesting. Cabell Midland currently sits 15 points ahead of University for the spot, but there are multiple University runners who show potential for finishing ahead of their projections.
University's 4 runner, Sophia Bell, shows the most potential for having a big day. Her regional performance converts to a 21:05.7c*, meaning that if she were able to repeat that magic at the State Meet, she would leap from projected 35th clear up to 23rd. That alone would cut the deficit to just a single point, but Bell isn't the only University member that shows jump potential. Claire Von Boetticher, Caroline Ballard and Haley Kramer could all potentially shave 20 seconds off of their predicted times if they perform similarly to how they did at regionals.
What Cabell Midland lacks in jump potential, they make up for with consistency. None of their top 4 runners have consistency ratings** worse than 20, meaning they are unlikely to have bad days that could harm their chances. With that said, Cabell's 5 runner, Emma Coakley, has broken 20 two times this season, so she is definitely a threat to move up 5 or more spots. However, her regional performance appears to have been her worst of season, and whether or not that will affect her state performance could be a serious factor.
No matter how the race plays out, the spotlight will certainly be shining the brightest on Morgantown as they have put together perhaps the most lethal team to ever come out of West Virginia. Lead by Irene Riggs (who recently broke 17 after being off the radar for a month) and boasting a top 5 who have all broken 19 at some point this season, they are almost certain to end the season as champions, just as they have the past 3 years.
*The letter "c" at the end of a time shows that the result has been converted to the state meet course.
**In terms of consistency ratings, a lower number means you are MORE consistent and a higher number means you are LESS consistent.