2022 WVSSAC AAA Cross Country Championships 10/25 Prediction & Analysis
@ Cabell (Diff: 1.0223)
**Runners marked "Top10 Contndr" have a performance on record that, when converted
to the State Meet course, would place them in the top 10.
Scroll to bottom of page for additional meet analysis.
=========================
TEAM SCORES
University 35
Hurricane 49
Wheeling Park 85
Jefferson 132
Cabell Midland 135
Morgantown 140
Woodrow Wilson 203
Parkersburg South 249
Musselman 268
George Washington 273
Washington 279
St. Albans 306
===============================
1 (1) Ty Steorts Hurricane 15:38.9
2 (2) Aaron Kidd Hurricane 15:45.6
3 (3) Ryan Blohm University 16:05.6
4 (4) Drew Zundell University 16:08.3
5 (5) Aiden Kneeland Woodrow Wilson 16:16.6
6 (6) Jacob West University 16:24.8
7 (7) Nick Kennedy Hurricane 16:25.6
8 (8) Justin Gottlieb Jefferson 16:30.0
9 (9) Conner Myers Jefferson 16:34.7
10 (10) Gavin Whorton University 16:38.6
11 (11) Jonah Nizami Wheeling Park 16:42.3 Top10 Contndr
12 (12) Tyler Umbright University 16:44.9 Top10 Contndr
13 (13) Tristan Blatt Cabell Midland 16:45.1 Top10 Contndr
14 (14) Ben Ashmore Wheeling Park 16:51.5 Top10 Contndr
15 (15) Brady Dawkins Hurricane 16:58.0
16 (16) Redick Moore Wheeling Park 16:58.8 Top10 Contndr
17 (17) Seth Franke Wheeling Park 16:59.1
18 (18) Ethan Conroy University 17:03.1 Top10 Contndr
19 (19) Quinn Mudry Morgantown 17:03.9
20 (X) Jordan Gillum Buckhannon-upshur 17:04.5
21 (20) Ryan Bazzle George Washington 17:07.4 Top10 Contndr
22 (21) Noah Schappell Washington 17:07.5
23 (22) Jared Bailey Cabell Midland 17:17.5
24 (23) Zachary Workman Morgantown 17:20.1
25 (24) Mason Lewis Hurricane 17:24.4
26 (25) Braden Elswick Cabell Midland 17:25.0
27 (X) Jack Mills Parkersburg 17:26.5
28 (26) Jack Overfield University 17:27.9
29 (27) Brady Amico Wheeling Park 17:31.4
30 (28) Brandon Canaday Woodrow Wilson 17:34.2
31 (X) Andrew Bowen Huntington 17:35.8
32 (29) Donald Adjeroh Morgantown 17:36.8
33 (30) Trent Thomas Wheeling Park 17:38.1
34 (31) Isaak Nizami Wheeling Park 17:41.2
35 (32) Dylan Dial Cabell Midland 17:48.4
36 (33) Case Hanshaw Hurricane 17:52.6
37 (34) Caleb Young Morgantown 17:55.6
38 (35) William Arbogast Morgantown 17:57.5
39 (36) Kyle Lewis Jefferson 17:57.8
40 (37) Justin Moss Musselman 17:58.2
41 (38) Owen Thompson Jefferson 18:02.9
42 (39) Brody Cochran Parkersburg South 18:04.0
43 (40) Walker Jones Parkersburg South 18:05.0
44 (41) Reese Hickey Jefferson 18:05.9
45 (42) Noah Endres St. Albans 18:07.3
46 (X) Skylar Hudnall Riverside Wv 18:07.7
47 (43) Colson Elswick Cabell Midland 18:09.2
48 (44) Silas Yates Musselman 18:09.7
49 (45) Duncan Snyder Morgantown 18:12.2
50 (46) Taydan Cloonan Musselman 18:19.6
51 (X) Andrew Butcher Hedgesville 18:20.4
52 (47) Aiden Blake Parkersburg South 18:20.9
53 (48) Finlay Lorimer Morgantown 18:22.0
54 (49) Gage Fox George Washington 18:25.6
55 (X) Dustin Bradsher Spring Mills 18:28.2
56 (50) Connor Ireland Jefferson 18:30.1
57 (51) Josiah Lavender St. Albans 18:34.3
58 (52) Sam Warner Hurricane 18:35.0
59 (53) Ryan Vanbibber St. Albans 18:44.2
60 (54) Ben Whitmore Cabell Midland 18:44.7
61 (55) Robert Shirey Woodrow Wilson 18:44.8
62 (56) Travis Jenkins Jefferson 18:47.0
63 (57) Michael Haddadin Woodrow Wilson 18:52.6
64 (58) Jonah Morgan Woodrow Wilson 18:57.4
65 (X) Mason Cardamone Hampshire 19:00.9
66 (59) Aj Atkinson Washington 19:10.9
67 (60) Lex Wigal Parkersburg South 19:13.2
68 (61) Cam Rivest Cabell Midland 19:15.4
69 (X) Zachary Neal Princeton Wv 19:15.5
70 (X) Austin Bias Oak Hill Wv 19:21.0
71 (62) Daniel Locarnini Washington 19:21.3
72 (63) Lucas Jenkins Parkersburg South 19:26.9
73 (64) Crawford Goldman George Washington 19:27.5
74 (65) Isaac Reed Musselman 19:43.5
75 (66) Mason Nettles Woodrow Wilson 19:46.9
76 (67) Jackson Fiolek Washington 19:48.9
77 (68) Kirklen Hinamon George Washington 19:52.9
78 (69) Kaden Goodwin Parkersburg South 19:54.5
79 (70) Isaac Colter Washington 20:08.4
80 (71) Kameron Wilson Parkersburg South 20:13.2
81 (72) Robbie Brown George Washington 20:13.8
82 (73) Lucas Raney Woodrow Wilson 20:24.9
83 (74) Ian Hanson George Washington 20:35.6
84 (75) Ethan Meagher Washington 20:41.3
85 (76) Micah Spake Musselman 20:41.5
86 (77) Eric Brady Washington 21:02.5
87 (78) Andrew Michael St. Albans 21:12.4
88 (79) Samir Jones George Washington 21:13.1
89 (80) Nick Okore Musselman 21:54.8
90 (81) Justin Brewer Musselman 24:10.4
91 (82) Ben Bonham St. Albans 24:31.7
92 (83) Ayden Legg St. Albans 24:43.0
Team Title Analysis:
For as good as Hurricane has been this year, University's incredible depth makes them a solid favorite for the state title. For Hurricane to get within striking range, it would take big performances from their 4 and 5 men. Brady Dawkins' and Mason Lewis' best performances from this year are 16:44.8c* and 17:11.9c respectively. If we replace their current predicted times with these marks, the point swings would be 4 and 2 respectively, bringing Hurricane's deficit down to 8.
For Hurricane to make up the remaining points, it would likely require a bad day from one or many of University's members. Unfortunately for Hurricane, everyone in University's top 5 have been reasonably consistent throughout the year, with none of them having a consistency rating** over 15. Their best chance comes in University's 4 man, Gavin Whorton who has a consistency rating of 14.6 and could feasibly drop 4 or 5 spots with a bad day.
Even if all of the above were to happen, Hurricane would still be short a couple points, leaving University with the State Title. That said, any number of unpredictable things could happen on race day, meaning Hurricane is by no means out of the running. Regardless of what happens, both of these teams have been some of the most talented we've seen in recent years and are deserving of high accolades.
*The letter "c" at the end of a time shows that the result has been converted to the state meet course.
**In terms of consistency ratings, a lower number means you are MORE consistent and a higher number means you are LESS consistent.