2022 WVSSAC AA Cross Country Championships 10/25 Prediction & Analysis
@ Cabell (Diff: 1.0223)
**Runners marked "Top10 Contndr" have a performance on record that, when converted
to the State Meet course, would place them in the top 10.
Scroll to bottom of page for additional meet analysis.
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TEAM SCORES
Winfield 49
Fairmont Senior 96
Philip Barbour 103
Braxton County 104
East Fairmont 118
Shady Spring 151
Liberty (harrison) 155
Nicholas County Wv 180
Wayne 191
Pikeview 234
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1 (1) Rachel Withrow Winfield 19:12.1
2 (2) Ava Ethridge Winfield 19:14.4
3 (X) Claudia Moore Robert C. Byrd 19:58.0
4 (3) Destiny Berryman Liberty (harrison) 20:10.6
5 (X) Addison Lease Frankfort Wv 20:41.0
6 (4) Kailee Haymond East Fairmont 20:45.5
7 (5) Laura Cain Braxton County 20:47.1
8 (6) Olivia Williamson Wayne 20:57.0
9 (X) Taylor Hess North Marion 21:03.8
10 (X) Hannah Kliner Oak Glen 21:10.8
11 (7) Natalie Barr Nicholas County Wv 21:11.5 Top10 Contndr
12 (8) Nevaeh Premo Fairmont Senior 21:14.7 Top10 Contndr
13 (9) Mariam Al-zoubi Winfield 21:22.7 Top10 Contndr
14 (X) Samantha Sproul Elkins 21:24.1
15 (10) Addison Lloyd Braxton County 21:24.3 Top10 Contndr
16 (11) Alana Grassi Philip Barbour 21:27.9
17 (12) Charlotte Mcginnis Shady Spring 21:30.5 Top10 Contndr
18 (X) Emily Viani Grafton 21:31.8 Top10 Contndr
19 (X) Naomi Young Weir 21:32.7
20 (X) Brooke Jacobs Frankfort Wv 21:35.1 Top10 Contndr
21 (X) Audrey Helmick Berkeley Springs 21:39.3 Top10 Contndr
22 (13) Bella Haught Fairmont Senior 21:43.0
23 (14) Kaitlyn Key Liberty (harrison) 21:45.9 Top10 Contndr
24 (15) Haley Johnson Nicholas County Wv 21:55.2 Top10 Contndr
25 (16) Megan Mitchell Philip Barbour 22:04.0
26 (17) Bethany Payne Braxton County 22:04.4
27 (18) Sophie Briscoe Winfield 22:14.6
28 (19) Cami Samples Winfield 22:19.7
29 (X) Addie Elliott North Marion 22:21.5
30 (20) Raegan Sisk Fairmont Senior 22:28.3
31 (X) Cianna Mckenna Robert C. Byrd 22:33.0
32 (21) Kayla Baker Philip Barbour 22:36.0
33 (22) Sophie Stuck East Fairmont 22:36.7
34 (23) Carli Spade Pikeview 22:45.7
35 (24) Adriana Bond East Fairmont 22:54.5
36 (25) Alexia Ferber Philip Barbour 23:00.7
37 (26) Ashlyn Awbrey Fairmont Senior 23:04.0
38 (27) Gwynn Mcginnis Shady Spring 23:04.9
39 (28) Marissa Haymond East Fairmont 23:12.2
40 (29) Caroline Logue Fairmont Senior 23:20.6
41 (X) Delia White Elkins 23:22.2
42 (X) Jenna Brown Herbert Hoover 23:24.8
43 (30) Phaedra Payne Philip Barbour 23:26.0
44 (31) Journey Wisthoff Shady Spring 23:29.3
45 (32) Holly Bach Winfield 23:29.4
46 (33) Calleigh Bach Winfield 23:29.7
47 (X) Karsen Fletcher Herbert Hoover 23:31.9
48 (34) Annika Shuman Liberty (harrison) 23:44.9
49 (35) Teagan Huff Braxton County 23:54.4
50 (36) Stella Episcopo Fairmont Senior 24:00.3
51 (37) Heidi Payne Braxton County 24:00.6
52 (38) Braylie Wiseman Shady Spring 24:08.3
53 (39) Nicole Bramble Braxton County 24:08.5
54 (40) Emma Moore East Fairmont 24:14.8
55 (41) Allison Haffer Wayne 24:17.7
56 (42) Laicey Necessary Pikeview 24:19.1
57 (43) Abby Honaker Shady Spring 24:43.3
58 (44) Laura Queen Wayne 24:43.3
59 (45) Brianna Workman Wayne 24:43.6
60 (46) Mary Tracey Liberty (harrison) 24:54.2
61 (47) Julia Barnes East Fairmont 24:55.3
62 (48) Caroline Hinkle Nicholas County Wv 25:13.7
63 (49) Lindsay Tetrick Braxton County 25:20.7
64 (50) Bailey Williams Pikeview 25:27.6
65 (51) Madison Awbrey Fairmont Senior 25:43.9
66 (52) Sullivan Grassi Philip Barbour 26:03.3
67 (53) Abby Szuch Shady Spring 26:13.2
68 (54) Catherine Jarosz Nicholas County Wv 26:27.5
69 (55) Heidi Davis Wayne 27:16.2
70 (56) Alanis Crowder Nicholas County Wv 27:29.4
71 (57) Lola Mckiney Pikeview 27:37.2
72 (58) Shaelyn Howard Liberty (harrison) 27:41.1
73 (59) Chiara Negri Wayne 28:04.5
74 (60) Sabrina Santiago Nicholas County Wv 28:37.6
75 (61) Emma Wright East Fairmont 28:46.4
76 (62) Caroline Fox Pikeview 28:53.7
77 (63) Haley Bays Wayne 29:40.3
78 (64) Raegan Rose Shady Spring 29:48.7
79 (65) Taylor Vance Philip Barbour 29:52.9
80 (66) Abygail Bunnell Liberty (harrison) 30:25.8
81 (67) Genna Wagner Liberty (harrison) 30:39.6
82 (68) Paige Fox Pikeview 31:52.2
Team Title Analysis:
On account of their depth, Winfield comes into this race as heavy favorites for the team championship. Their senior-freshman duo of Rachael Withrow and Ava Ethridge has been dominant all year and it would be a shock if the two of them don't finish 1-2 in the meet. However, things become very uncertain when you look at who the second-place team could be. There are only 22 points separating Fairmont Senior, Philip Barbour, Braxton County and East Fairmont, so it's anyone's guess as to who will come out on top. I'll briefly break down each of these four teams and explain what they have going for, and against them.
Fairmont Senior, after having a rocky start to the season, has come on strong down the stretch, which culminated in an impressive regional performance where they defeated both Philip Barbour and East Fairmont. If they repeat what they did at regionals, they could easily end up with their top 5 under 22:40, and a decisive runner-up victory. With that said, if their early season woes come back to bite, they could easily fall back multiple spots in the team scores.
Philip Barbour only lost to Fairmont Senior by 8 points in their regional faceoff. Based on projections, there are 4 key matchups where Philip Barbour and Fairmont Senior runners are separated by 3 or less places. If Philip Barbour can swing a few of those their way, it could be enough to overtake Fairmont. With that said, if one of their top 5 has an off day, their lack of depth could put them firmly out of contention.
Out of all the teams in contention for runner-up, Braxton County has the best top 3. If their 4 and 5 are able to pick up some spots, it could put them in a great position to get 2nd. Results from the season show that Teagan Huff and Heidi Payne are both hypothetically capable of running 23:1X on the state meet course. If both of them could manage close to that, it would be enough to make up the deficit. However, they both come into the state meet with consistency ratings over 30** meaning that they could just as easily finish below projections by a significant amount.
East Fairmont is in a similar situation to Braxton's. Their 5 is currently projected 54th, but after a strong regional performance, appears capable of moving up 10+ spots. Unfortunately, they also run into problems when you consider the fact that Fairmont's 3 and Philip Barbour's 3 are both projected in front of East's 2, albeit not by much. Sophie Stuck does show some jump potential, and if she can contend with the other teams' 2 runners, it could give East an outside chance of claiming second.
**In terms of consistency ratings, a lower number means you are MORE consistent and a higher number means you are LESS consistent.