2022 WVSSAC AA Cross Country Championships 10/26 Prediction & Analysis
@ Cabell (Diff: 1.0223)
**Runners marked "Top10 Contndr" have a performance on record that, when converted
to the State Meet course, would place them in the top 10.
Scroll to bottom of page for additional meet analysis.
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TEAM SCORES
Frankfort Wv 28
Winfield 52
Fairmont Senior 123
East Fairmont 131
Wayne 136
Pikeview 171
Shady Spring 176
Lewis County 195
Nicholas County Wv 212
Elkins 215
Liberty (harrison) 297
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1 (1) Brayden Marshall Winfield 15:40.1
2 (2) Garrett Ferguson Frankfort Wv 16:01.5
3 (3) Steven Kent Niland Frankfort Wv 16:16.7
4 (4) Justin Lipscomb Winfield 16:30.7
5 (X) Landon Brumfield Poca 16:47.0
6 (5) Slate Swiger Lewis County 16:56.8
7 (6) Luke Duncan Frankfort Wv 17:03.8
8 (7) Jordon Reesman Winfield 17:07.1
9 (8) Ryan Hughes Frankfort Wv 17:09.4
10 (9) Landyn Sell Frankfort Wv 17:09.7
11 (10) Chace Thompson Wayne 17:16.9 Top10 Contndr
12 (11) Chance Thompson Wayne 17:24.3 Top10 Contndr
13 (X) Nick Gallo Oak Glen 17:25.2 Top10 Contndr
14 (X) Trenton Denne Keyser 17:27.2 Top10 Contndr
15 (12) Adam Criser Winfield 17:28.8 Top10 Contndr
16 (X) John Duvall Herbert Hoover 17:33.3 Top10 Contndr
17 (13) Drew Moore East Fairmont 17:36.3 Top10 Contndr
18 (14) Nathaniel Stuck East Fairmont 17:38.9 Top10 Contndr
19 (X) Joshua Duffy Weir 17:42.2 Top10 Contndr
20 (15) Jaedan Holstein Shady Spring 17:54.4
21 (16) Braden Ward Pikeview 17:57.4
22 (17) Griffin Thomas Fairmont Senior 17:59.5
23 (18) Zane Nelson Frankfort Wv 18:02.2
24 (19) Josiah Brannen Fairmont Senior 18:14.8
25 (20) Matt Murphy Pikeview 18:17.0
26 (X) Jt Veltri Grafton 18:19.0
27 (21) Joshua Mcpherson East Fairmont 18:20.0
28 (22) Jacob Dowdy Shady Spring 18:25.3
29 (23) Devon Lemon Fairmont Senior 18:27.2
30 (24) Luke Barr Nicholas County Wv 18:28.8
31 (25) Timothy Umstead Frankfort Wv 18:33.5
32 (26) David Hughes Lewis County 18:33.7
33 (27) Johnny Walkup Nicholas County Wv 18:35.1
34 (28) Eian Mcgough Winfield 18:36.6
35 (29) Logan Prater Wayne 18:38.8
36 (30) Ben Cobb Winfield 18:39.3
37 (X) Shadan Schoolcraft Nitro 18:42.4
38 (31) Landon Jones Fairmont Senior 18:42.8
39 (32) Chase Parsons Winfield 18:50.7
40 (33) Tyler Morris Fairmont Senior 18:59.9
41 (X) Sawyer Dobbins Clay County 19:00.9
42 (X) Thomas Taylor Poca 19:13.1
43 (34) Gavin Brown Elkins 19:14.2
44 (X) Tommy Wikel Wyoming East 19:15.8
45 (35) Joshua Bodkins Elkins 19:18.1
46 (36) Wesley Holcomb Nicholas County Wv 19:18.7
47 (37) Maddox Prince Lewis County 19:19.1
48 (38) Trevor Wotring East Fairmont 19:24.4
49 (39) Bryson Edwards Wayne 19:24.7
50 (40) Kaleb Blankenship Pikeview 19:25.3
51 (41) Preston Nixon Elkins 19:26.5
52 (42) Nate Cook Pikeview 19:29.4
53 (43) Garett Hatcher Shady Spring 19:30.1
54 (44) Eli Northrop Shady Spring 19:32.3
55 (45) Donovan Childs East Fairmont 19:36.3
56 (46) Austin Shuman Liberty (harrison) 19:43.6
57 (47) Levi Queen Wayne 19:51.8
58 (48) Brady Saunders Fairmont Senior 19:54.6
59 (49) Oliver Garletts East Fairmont 19:56.5
60 (50) Tyler Burda Elkins 19:57.6
61 (51) Wyatt Miller Liberty (harrison) 19:58.4
62 (52) Bo Huffman Shady Spring 20:04.3
63 (53) Jonah Nolan Pikeview 20:04.5
64 (54) Chase Harr East Fairmont 20:07.2
65 (55) Bobby Valentine Elkins 20:11.7
66 (56) Zane Carothers Shady Spring 20:33.4
67 (57) Daniel Smith Shady Spring 20:38.8
68 (58) Aaron Knight Elkins 20:49.1
69 (59) Johnathan Dean Elkins 20:52.2
70 (60) Isaiah Miner Nicholas County Wv 20:59.2
71 (61) Elijah Keaton Pikeview 21:00.6
72 (62) Aiden Byers Liberty (harrison) 21:02.6
73 (63) Carder Holden Lewis County 21:16.9
74 (64) Mitchell Norman Lewis County 21:22.6
75 (65) Isaac Coffman Nicholas County Wv 21:38.9
76 (66) Dennis Napper Liberty (harrison) 21:39.9
77 (67) Sam Feinstein Nicholas County Wv 21:40.9
78 (68) Johnny Masters Fairmont Senior 21:41.7
79 (69) David Hairfield Lewis County 21:59.5
80 (70) Isaac Miner Nicholas County Wv 21:59.7
81 (71) Sawyer Swiger Lewis County 21:59.8
82 (72) Dominic Perry Liberty (harrison) 22:51.8
83 (73) Lincoln Johnson Wayne 23:05.7
84 (74) Conner Manley Pikeview 23:15.8
85 (75) Alex Audia Liberty (harrison) 24:53.7
86 (76) Trenton Renner Liberty (harrison) 24:56.3
87 (77) Nicholas Roberts Wayne 26:11.6
Team Title Analysis:
Upon first glance, Frankfort appears to possess complete domination over the field, with a team score that looks like it came from a dual meet. It helps when you have 5 guys projected in the top 10. However, most of Winfield's deficit can be chalked up to their 5 man being projected 34th, meaning if one of their bottom 3 runners has a big day, it puts them right in contention. All three of the sophomores have ran performances this year that convert to an 18:0X on the state meet course, so if just one of them can manage that, it would cut the Frankfort lead down to 15.
On top of that, there are two big wild cards on Frankfort's team that have the potential to cost them some spots if things don't go their way. Luke Duncan comes into the state meet with a consistency rating well over 20**, meaning there's roughly a 1 in 3 chance of him running as low as 13th place. On the flip side, there's also a 1 in 3 chance that he could jump up to 5th, so he'll definitely be someone to keep an eye on.
The other wild card on Frankfort's team is Landyn Sell, who's consistency rating is marginally better (16) but is also coming off very shaky performances at his conference and regional meets. A repeat of his regional performance could put him as low as 20th.
If all three of those scenarios go Winfield's way, the team scores end up around even, so without a doubt, Frankfort has a big upper hand. As long as Duncan and/or Sell finish where they're supposed to, it's hard to imagine any way they couldn't head home with the team championship. They have an additional advantage when you consider that the other three runners in their top 5, Garrett Ferguson, Kent Niland and Ryan Hughes, all come in with consistency ratings under 10, meaning they have a very small chance of finishing below projections. Regardless of who takes home the title, the amount of talent on both Frankfort's and Winfield's rosters is impressive, and with a combined 8 runners projected in the top 10, both teams should put on quite a show.
The battle for third place may also be something worth keeping an eye on. Fairmont Senior comes in favored by 8 points, but with 2 freshmen in their top 5, and 4 in their top 7, it could easily turn into a blowout, or just as likely, a 5th place finish. East Fairmont lost to them by only 7 at their regional meet, and has more state meet experience from years past.
**In terms of consistency ratings, a lower number means you are MORE consistent and a higher number means you are LESS consistent.