2022 WVSSAC A Cross Country Championships 10/27 Prediction & Analysis
@ Cabell (Diff: 1.0223)
**Runners marked "Top10 Contndr" have a performance on record that, when converted
to the State Meet course, would place them in the top 10.
Scroll to bottom of page for additional meet analysis.
=========================
TEAM SCORES
Williamstown 31
Doddridge County 49
Trinity Christian 109
Charleston Catholi 112
Saint Marys 128
Ravenswood 134
Ritchie County 135
Richwood 192
===============================
1 (1) Alyssa Sauro Williamstown 18:07.7
2 (2) Alexis Lamb Doddridge County 18:27.8
3 (3) Katie Cottrill Doddridge County 20:13.8
4 (4) Virginia Haddox Saint Marys 20:24.9
5 (5) Bella Boggs Charleston Catholi 20:29.0
6 (6) Brianna Winsett Williamstown 20:41.7
7 (X) Lacey Dimit Wood County Christ 20:55.2
8 (7) Sydney Anderson Williamstown 21:02.3
9 (X) Katie Hicks Tucker County 21:11.4
10 (8) Ava Lightfritz Williamstown 21:12.7
11 (9) Lexi Wynn Williamstown 21:18.1 Top10 Contndr
12 (10) Bailey Holden Doddridge County 21:20.1 Top10 Contndr
13 (11) Bentlee Williams Ritchie County 21:23.8 Top10 Contndr
14 (12) Jenna Barnett Trinity Christian 21:24.9 Top10 Contndr
15 (13) Hannah Fisher Charleston Catholi 21:28.3 Top10 Contndr
16 (X) Erin Chambers Tucker County 21:28.3 Top10 Contndr
17 (14) Hadleigh Mcgoskey Ravenswood 21:45.7 Top10 Contndr
18 (15) Cassie Cumberledge Doddridge County 21:47.4 Top10 Contndr
19 (16) Aurelia Kirby Charleston Catholi 21:47.7
20 (17) Chesnee Williams Ritchie County 21:51.6 Top10 Contndr
21 (18) Evangelia Berry Trinity Christian 21:55.9
22 (X) Addi Moats Tucker County 21:56.4
23 (19) Emily Gola Doddridge County 21:58.4
24 (20) Sofia Pancoast Trinity Christian 21:59.5
25 (21) Samantha Maxson Ravenswood 22:11.1
26 (22) Andrea Davis Ritchie County 22:12.5
27 (X) Lexi Mathis Paden City 22:13.2
28 (23) Natalie Bartrug Saint Marys 22:22.3
29 (X) Emily Ebert Tyler Consolidated 22:24.7
30 (24) Brookelyn Reynolds Williamstown 22:26.2
31 (25) Lydia Knight Trinity Christian 22:27.6
32 (26) Baylee Jarrett Richwood 22:34.5
33 (27) Riley Sotomayor Ravenswood 22:46.3
34 (X) Jadyn Duncan Paden City 22:51.6
35 (28) Jaela Davis Saint Marys 22:53.1
36 (29) Emily Wratchford Ravenswood 22:54.9
37 (30) Hailey Keith Doddridge County 22:55.2
38 (31) Carlee Dillard Richwood 23:08.0
39 (32) Lucia Okuno Charleston Catholi 23:09.2
40 (33) Sylvia Harris Williamstown 23:13.1
41 (X) Alexis White Webster County 23:20.9
42 (34) Bethany Byrne Trinity Christian 23:30.0
43 (X) Katie Collins James Monroe 23:31.2
44 (X) Sarah Turner Summers County 23:43.4
45 (35) Layne Kincaid Saint Marys 23:50.6
46 (36) Taylor Stephens Trinity Christian 23:54.5
47 (37) Nora Sias Doddridge County 23:58.7
48 (38) Sophie Greenleaf Saint Marys 24:00.8
49 (39) Kelsey Davis Richwood 24:30.7
50 (40) Addie Davis Saint Marys 24:36.1
51 (41) Kaity Sullivan Ritchie County 24:43.9
52 (42) Kamryn Armstrong Saint Marys 24:56.0
53 (43) Riley Curfman Ravenswood 25:00.6
54 (44) Whitley Patterson Ritchie County 25:02.0
55 (X) Megan Cutlip Wirt County 25:03.5
56 (45) Sophie Mullens Richwood 25:55.7
57 (46) Emma Toliver Duffer Charleston Catholi 26:03.9
58 (47) Mckenzi Nesselroad Ravenswood 26:39.7
59 (48) Maddie White Charleston Catholi 27:14.9
60 (49) Kadi Price Ravenswood 27:19.1
61 (50) Marcie Wheeler Charleston Catholi 27:41.1
62 (51) Reagan Raffo Richwood 27:42.4
63 (52) Caelyn Unger Trinity Christian 28:20.0
64 (53) Tracy Abner Ritchie County 35:17.9
Team Title Analysis:
With five girls in the top 11, Williamstown is favored to defeat Doddridge County by 18 points. However, every runner in Doddridge's top 4 could theoretically break into the top 10, or at least come close, which means they are far from out of the running. One Doddridge runner in particular to watch out for is Bailey Holden, who at the LKC Championship race, ran in front of Williamstown's 2 (3 counting Sauro). If she could manage that again, it would be a big 6-point swing for Doddridge.
There is also a big wild card on Williamstown's team in their number 1, Alyssa Sauro. After establishing herself as a dominating force early in the season, apparent injury issues have kept her out of competition since September 17th. It's very possible that she could fall behind Doddridge's 1 and 2, if she races at all.
If the latter were to happen, Williamstown's projected score would increase by over 20, putting them behind Doddridge but not out of reach. At that point, it would be up to Brookelyn Reynolds (currently their 6, would become 5) to pick up some spots, since there aren't too many scoring individuals within the reach of their top 4. Reynolds' best performance on the year is a 22:02.3c*. If she were to repeat that, it would put her right behind Doddridge's 5 and give her team a good chance of winning.
With all that said, there is a good chance that Alyssa Sauro will be competing, and if that's the case, it's hard to imagine her and her team not going home as champions. The amount of depth they have through 5 is incredible, especially for a single-A school, and between them and Doddridge, you can expect many of them on the podium at the end of the day.
Another close matchup to keep an eye on is the battle for 3rd between Trinity Christian and Charleston Catholic. With only 3 points separating the two, it could go either way. Trinity by far has better depth, so one bad day from one of Charleston’s top 4 could guarantee victory for Trinity.
*The letter "c" at the end of a time shows that the result has been converted to the state meet course.