2022 WVSSAC A Cross Country Championships 10/27 Prediction & Analysis
@ Cabell (Diff: 1.0223)
**Runners marked "Top10 Contndr" have a performance on record that, when converted
to the State Meet course, would place them in the top 10.
Scroll to bottom of page for additional meet analysis.
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TEAM SCORES
Williamstown 27
Buffalo 75
Saint Marys 88
Doddridge County 92
Charleston Catholi 107
Wheeling Central 147
Tucker County 152
Webster County 178
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1 (1) Chase Trembly Williamstown 16:37.1
2 (2) Julian Johnson Williamstown 17:02.1
3 (3) Aidan Scott Wheeling Central 17:10.2
4 (X) Donovan Tanouye Paw Paw 17:19.2
5 (4) Zach Cannon Williamstown 17:20.6
6 (X) Aj Skeens Sherman 17:24.1
7 (5) Nicholas Pitchford Buffalo 17:48.6
8 (6) Will Coiner Williamstown 17:52.0
9 (X) Landen Davis Magnolia 17:52.7
10 (X) Jaden Ebert Tyler Consolidated 17:54.9
11 (X) Cade Curfman Ravenswood 18:10.4 Top10 Contndr
12 (7) Patrick Reilly Buffalo 18:16.2 Top10 Contndr
13 (X) Amos Kimble Tyler Consolidated 18:16.7 Top10 Contndr
14 (8) Isaac Collins Charleston Catholi 18:22.4
15 (9) Max Dauch Saint Marys 18:23.1 Top10 Contndr
16 (10) Carter Sias Doddridge County 18:25.4 Top10 Contndr
17 (11) Jackson Mallett Buffalo 18:26.8 Top10 Contndr
18 (X) Heath Knight Ritchie County 18:31.8 Top10 Contndr
19 (12) Reece Westfall Saint Marys 18:36.1
20 (13) Hunter Perry Charleston Catholi 18:44.8
21 (X) Evan Mcelwayne Notre Dame 18:46.0
22 (14) Frank Conner Williamstown 18:47.2
23 (15) Patrick Childers Wheeling Central 19:00.6
24 (X) Ethan Tomlinson Trinity Christian 19:02.9
25 (16) Josh Berke Doddridge County 19:03.6
26 (17) Cameron Judy Tucker County 19:08.7
27 (18) Gunnar Kimball Doddridge County 19:12.7
28 (X) Robert Kincaid Trinity Christian 19:13.1
29 (19) Adam Bennett Saint Marys 19:31.0
30 (X) David Urso Notre Dame 19:37.2
31 (20) Trey Mcdonough Doddridge County 19:38.6
32 (21) Will Barton Charleston Catholi 19:45.2
33 (22) Micah Evans Saint Marys 19:52.9
34 (X) Spencer Nolan South Harrison 19:53.8
35 (23) Dylan Blacksire Buffalo 20:00.4
36 (24) Austin Wright Webster County 20:04.7
37 (25) Nate Ricottilli Tucker County 20:08.6
38 (26) Christian Houser Saint Marys 20:12.8
39 (27) Josh Simons Webster County 20:12.9
40 (28) Noah Bodkin Doddridge County 20:27.4
41 (29) Justus Harris Buffalo 20:28.6
42 (30) Alex Boyles Tucker County 20:32.2
43 (31) Raymond Keith Charleston Catholi 20:39.1
44 (X) Dakota Pettry Summers County 20:46.9
45 (32) Caleb Wekseth Doddridge County 20:50.9
46 (33) Cooper Schall Williamstown 20:51.2
47 (34) Ewan Becher Charleston Catholi 21:07.6
48 (35) Charlie Barton Charleston Catholi 21:07.6
49 (36) Wade Lawson Webster County 21:08.0
50 (37) Allan Boyles Tucker County 21:19.1
51 (X) Wyatt Lilly James Monroe 21:19.5
52 (38) Conor Caldwell Charleston Catholi 21:21.7
53 (39) Michael Hutnick Wheeling Central 21:29.5
54 (40) Bryce Bills Saint Marys 21:39.9
55 (41) Ben Schafer Webster County 21:49.2
56 (42) Nathaniel Barack Wheeling Central 21:58.4
57 (43) Lynk Suesli Tucker County 22:05.4
58 (44) Malachi Stewart Williamstown 22:12.7
59 (45) Nathan Harris Buffalo 22:14.1
60 (46) Tyson Kimball Saint Marys 22:40.2
61 (47) Malachi Webb Buffalo 23:01.8
62 (48) Chaz Frizzell Wheeling Central 23:26.6
63 (49) Joey Secrist Wheeling Central 23:28.1
64 (50) Logan Vandevender Webster County 23:56.5
65 (51) Hayden Smith Tucker County 25:10.9
66 (52) Tom Cottrill Wheeling Central 25:13.4
67 (53) Zeke Gray Webster County 29:31.0
Team Title Analysis:
With 4 runners in the top 6 scoring spots, Williamstown comes in as a heavy favorite for the team championship. The trio of Chase Trembly, Julian Johnson and Zach Cannon has been deadly all year, and after strong regional performances, their 4 and 5 appear to be ready to roll too. On top of that, the average consistency rating of their top 5 sits around 15**, which shows that they're unlikely to finish very far below projections.
The battle for second place should prove to be a bit more interesting. Buffalo currently is projected 2nd with a score of 75, but with Saint Marys and Doddridge County within striking distance, they'll have to run well to secure their podium finish.
Buffalo's best chance to secure their lead comes from their 4 man, Dylan Blacksire, who could easily jump 10 or more spots with a repeat of his regional performance. Their 5 shows similar jump potential, so if both of them could manage to pick up a combined 15 spots or so, they could put 2nd out of reach from their competitors.
Saint Mary's entire top 5 ran incredibly well at their regional race, with every single one of them breaking a minute barrier they never had broken previously. Converting their regional performances to the state meet course shows that they could close the lead on Buffalo and then some if they run that well again. Out of all of them, Micah Evans shows the biggest jump potential after beating his PR by a minute and a half at regionals. He could conceivably jump from projected 33rd up to the top 20.
Compared to Saint Marys, Doddridge has been running relatively consistent all year. While this sounds good on paper, it also means that they are unlikely to make many big jumps. Their best chance would if each of them managed to pick up a few spots each, while the other teams' lack of consistency causes them to fall off projections.
For as hectic as the 2nd place battle should be, at the end of the day, Williamstown's consistency and depth will be the real show. It's rare to see so many talented individuals on a single-A roster, and with four of them set to podium, it's seems unlikely that things aren't going to go their way.
**In terms of consistency ratings, a lower number means you are MORE consistent and a higher number means you are LESS consistent.