Meet: A-AA Girls State Meet Predictions
Location: Cabell Midland High School
Date: To be held November 2, 2019
Predicted A-AA Girls Team Results
So I guess I could be wrong about Class AAA Boys being the best team race. I have the
top 3 all finishing within 6 points. Health statuses could play a major role. In particular,
it appears that Winfield's Kalei Jordan (ranked 8th) will be missing the State Meet due
to injury. Baylee Adkins also missed the regional (or didn't finish since Winfield only had
6 finishers at the Regional). I don't know her status, but I included her in the predictions.
If she's not fully healthy or isn't running, it certainly hurts them. As it stands, I
have Williamstown winning the whole thing by a scant 4 points over Fairmont Senior for the
overall title and Class A title. Fairmont Senior has had some injury and illness issues
of their own with Lydia Falkenstein missing much of the middle of the season and some
inconsistency among the ranks. If they're hitting on all cylinders, they can certainly
win the whole thing as evidenced by their statistically superior regional performance. I
have them in the 2nd overall spot and taking the Class AA title. I have Winfield another
2 points back, which certainly puts them into play for the win. Anyone other than those
three would be a major upset. I have Bridgeport in the 4th spot with St. Marys in 5th
for the Class A Runner-up position. I only have 25 points between 5th and 8th, so there
could be a lot of movement.
1. Williamstown 87
2. Fairmont Senior 91
3. Winfield 93
4. Bridgeport 158
5. St. Marys 183
6. Elkins 191
7. Charleston Catholic 203
8. Wayne 208
9. Doddridge 228
10. Grafton 255
11. East Fairmont 261
12. Herbert Hoover 286
13. Tucker 295
14. PikeView 316
15. Tyler Consolidated 339
16. Clay 405
17. Buffalo 516
Predicted A-AA Girls Top 25
This is a tough one again. Though she has lost the lead in the rankings, I have gone with
Ella Hesson to repeat for the title. Until someone in Class A-AA knocks her off, I have
to give her the edge. As Ric Flair would say...to be the man, you've gotta beat the man.
And so far, no one has done it. Erykah Christopher has been very strong late in the season
and dueled Hesson to the last 50 meters at Midland early in the season. O'Sullivan is my
question mark. She's been dominant late in the season and has taken over the top spot in
the rankings. But between the 8/31 Midland meet and the Regional, she encountered none
of the top tier competitors. She did dominate the region and had statistically the best
regional race in the field. I slotted her 3rd, but her winning it would not be a shock.
I dropped Rachel Withrow into the 4th spot. She battled Hesson closely at the Chick-Fil-A
Invitational and beat O'Sullivan in the season opener. Carlina Jacquez gets the nod for
the 5th spot. She actually just moved into the 4th spot in the rankings and had the 3rd
best regional run in the field. After a bit of a rough start, the 2nd half of her season
has been very good. I put Emerson Grafton into the 6th spot. She's been consistently good
all season long. Aubrie Custer is the 7th pick. She looks like she's finally regaining
form late in the season and is definitely a threat to move up. I put Lydia Falkenstein
into the 8th spot. Early in the season, she was looking like a very legitimate top 3 candidate,
but an injury put her out from 9/7 until the Big 10 Meet on 10/17. She was better at the
Regional than she was at the Big 10 Meet and I expect further rebounding for the State Meet.
Slotting these last couple was tough. I ended up going with Natalie Sawin for 9th, based
a lot on her step-up performance at last year's State Meet. I put Chloe Lightfritz in
the 10th spot. She and Sawin have battled back and forth over the course of the season with
each coming out on top 5 times. Lightfritz has taken two of the last three, but Sawin took
the regional. I found it very difficult to leave out Belle Harvey, who was 4th last year
and is working her way back into form, among others. The list of true contenders for a
podium spot runs pretty deep.
Pick Score Name Year School
1 1 Hesson, Ella 11 Williamstown
2 2 Christopher, Erykah 11 East Fairmont
3 3 O'Sullivan, Erin 11 PikeView
4 4 Withrow, Rachel 9 Winfield
5 5 Jacquez, Carlina 12 Fairmont Senior
6 6 Grafton, Emerson 10 Bridgeport
7 7 Custer, Aubrie 11 Chas. Catholic
8 8 Falkenstein, Lydia 9 Fairmont Senior
9 9 Sawin, Natalie 10 Williamstown
10 10 Lightfritz, Chloe 10 Williamstown
11 X Browning, Jalynn 10 Scott
12 X Harvey, Belle 11 Berkeley Spr.
13 11 Stanley, Mackenzie 12 Fairmont Senior
14 12 Williamson, Emily 10 Wayne
15 13 Adkins, Baylee # 8 11 Winfield
16 14 Hawkins, Alexa 12 Herbert Hoover
17 X Frosch, Erin 9 Notre Dame
18 15 Al-Zoubi, Miriam 9 Winfield
19 16 Gola, Emily 9 Doddridge
20 17 Berdine, Addison 11 Elkins
21 18 Sproul, Samantha 9 Elkins
22 19 Keith, Hailey 9 Doddridge
23 20 Davis, Erica 10 St. Marys
24 21 Hively, Cari 12 Herbert Hoover
25 22 Falls, Kate 10 Tucker