Remember, this is only how it looks from the rankings heading into the regionals. This is not a prediction based on any analysis of races held during the season. If a team has fewer than five ranked runners, it is assumed that their first unranked runner would finish five places behind the last ranked runner, their second unranked runner would finish ten places behind the last ranked runner, etc. Runners run above and below their ranking in every meet, and the Regionals will be no different. The important thing is that if you have five runners, get them to the starting line. If you have seven, get them to the line. If you only have 3, get them on the line. Your region may be depending on you.
Region I: It looks like this Region will advance 3 Class AA teams and 2 Class A teams. In the Class AA Division, Fairmont Senior is the class of the field as I have them winning the region by nearly 60 points. I have Philip Barbour pretty solidly in the 2nd spot. The 3rd Class AA spot is up for grabs. I have Grafton taking the spot by just 5 points over Frankfort but with North Marion and Berkeley Springs in striking distance and East Fairmont with an outside shot as well, health depending. In the Class A Division, St. Marys is easily the top in the field. I have Tyler Consolidated in the 2nd spot, but just by 2 points over Ritchie, so that one could certainly go either way. Individually, my best guess is that 19 will advance. The current top 19 are Erykah Christopher, Carlina Jacquez, Mackenzie Stanley, Lydia Falkenstein, Belle Harvey, Erica Davis, Olivia Cress, Sophia Tomana, Chaysie Barnes, Jessie Higgins, Jay Cee Everson, Sophia Arner, Kendra Rogucki, Josey Moore, Avrie Kelley, Olivia Frye, Averi Everline, Megan Mitchell, and Karina Patel. Those within 60 points of the top 19 and not on an expected advancing team are Berkeley Spring's Taylor Mason (20th), North Marion's Addie Elliott (22nd), North Marion's Madison Hayes (24th), East Fairmont's Courtney Eddy (25th), and Frankfort's Jillian Griffith (26th). There are 57 ranked runners in Region I.
Region II: This Region is likely to advance two Class AA teams and two Class A teams. In Class AA, Bridgeport looks to be the favorite but with Elkins not out of reach in 2nd. They should not be threatened by any other Class AA team. In Class A, Doddridge appears to be well ahead of the field. The 2nd spot should be fairly close between Tucker and Notre Dame with Tucker having the edge for the spot. I'm projecting 13 individuals to advance. The current top 13 are Emerson Grafton, Erin Frosch, Emily Gola, Hailey Keith, Addison Berdine, Kate Falls, Samantha Sproul, Lindsey Bennington, Madison Looker, Kiley Edwards, Heidi Payne, Morgan Turner, and Allison Hess. There only one runner within 60 points of the top 13 that is not on an expected advancing team. That is Liberty Harrison's Mercedes Ray (14th). There are 35 ranked runners in Region II.
Region III: It looks like this Region should advance 3 Class AA teams and 2 Class A teams. In order to get 3 Class AA teams, two of Liberty Raleigh, Westside, and Wyoming East will need to get 5 to the line. I think all 3 will probably do so, but each has had mulitple meets in which they didn't have 5. For Class AA, I have Herbert Hoover in the top spot over PikeView by 17 with Clay taking the 3rd spot over Westside. In Class A, it looks like only 2 schools will field complete teams, so by default, Charleston Catholic and Summers County should advance. I actually have Charleston Catholic winning the region outright. I've only seen Summers run 5 in a meet twice, so it's possible that only one team could advance. Individually, I project 15 to advance. The current top 15 are Erin O'Sullivan, Aubrie Custer, Alexa Hawkins, Cari Hively, Gabbie Custer, Kathleen Walkup, Colleen Lookabill, Rachel Coffield, Britney Cochran, Celine Humphrey, Madelyn Kilpatrick, Jillian Hager, Lauren Persinger, Josie Kreitzer, and Sydney Shamblin. Those within 60 points of the top 15 and not on an expected advancing team are Webster's Alivia Moffatt (16th), Nicholas' Courtney Prather (17th), Westside's Alyssa Wells (18th), Independence's Chloe Honaker (19th) and Oak Hill's Kaitlyn Baker (21st). There are 23 ranked runners in Region III.
Region IV: This Regional should advance two Class AA teams and two Class A teams. In Class AA, Winfield is the dominant force, and Wayne is the clear favorite for the 2nd spot. In Class A, Williamstown is easily the top team (and should have quite a battle with Winfield for the overall title). The 2nd spot is really up for grabs between Calhoun and Buffalo. I have Calhoun taking the spot. Individually, I project 13 runners to advance. The current top 13 are Ella Hesson, Rachel Withrow, Chloe Lightfritz, Kalei Jordan, Natalie Sawin, Baylee Adkins, Jalynn Browning, Miriam Al-Zoubi, Emily Williamson, Hailey Wallace, Emilee Ellison, Ella Wikel, and Sarah Lipscomb. There is only one runner within 60 points of the top 13 and not on an expected advancing team. That is Ravenswood's Samantha Maxson (17th). There are 32 ranked runners in Region IV.