Remember, this is only how it looks from the rankings heading into the regionals. This is not a prediction based on any analysis of races held during the season. If a team has fewer than five ranked runners, it is assumed that their first unranked runner would finish five places behind the last ranked runner, their second unranked runner would finishe ten places behind the last ranked runner, etc. Runners run above and below their ranking in every meet, and the Regionals will be no different. The important thing is that if you have five runners, get them to the starting line. If you have 7, get them to the line. If you only have 3...get them to the line. Your region may be depending on you.
Region I: It looks like this Region will advance four Class AA teams. They have a good shot to advance three Class A teams. In order for that to happen, both Cameron and Hundred need to get 5 to the starting line. That looks pretty questionable. I don't think Cameron has had five since meet one, and I think Hundred only had five one time as well. For some reason, I think it will happen, so I'm going with 3. In Class AA, and the region in general, Fairmont Senior is way out front. Frankfort looks like they have easy control of the 2nd spot. I have East Fairmont in pretty good control of the 3rd spot. I have Oak Glen in the 4th spot but with Philip Barbour in striking distance. In Class A, Ritchie easily has the top spot and Tyler Consolidated is in pretty firm control of the 2nd spot. The likely beneficiary of the 3rd spot is St. Marys. Individually, I'm projecting 24 to advance as this is pretty easily the largest Region. The current top 24 are Ethan Kincell, Logan Zuchelli, Tyler Hayes, Spencer Corley, Noah Ward, Kent Bee, Konnor Allison, Garrett Ferguson, Jasper Brown, Zyan Hardbarger, Brady Layman, Evan Pyles, Jacob Elder, Luke Hawranick, Alex Morris, Jackson Mundey, Anthony Sanders, Mason Konchar, Xander Shoemake, Carter Saunders, Adam Davis, Haygen Baker, Elijah Hannig, and Christian Cimaglia. Those within 60 points of the top 24 and not on an expected advancing team are East Fairmont's Trevor Saunders (25th), Grafton's Ryan Maier (T27th) and Keyser's Noah Sprouse (T29th). There are 54 ranked runners in Region I.
Region II: This Region will likely advance two Class AA teams and two Class A teams. In Class AA, Bridgeport is again the class of the field. I have Elkins in the 2nd spot, but just by 4 points over Lewis County. In Class A, Doddridge is far ahead of the field. The 2nd spot should be a fight between Clay-Battelle, Notre Dame, and Tucker. I have Clay-Battelle in the spot. The problem with these three is that each only has one ranked runner, so that's all there is to go on for this projection. From what I've seen over the course of the season, Tucker is probably the most likely to take the spot. Individually, I'm projecting 16 to advance. The current top 16 are Carter Lipscomb, Jackson Jacobs, Cade Robinson, Carter Bowie, Trent Gola, Trey Martin, Jacob Moore, Bryan Utt, Gage Smith, Bailey DeMoss, Lucas Anger, Chase Ammons, Cole Bracken, Charlie Smoak, Landon Burns, and Brennan Cropp. Only one runner is within 60 points of the top 16 and not on an expected advancing team. That is Liberty Harrison's Bryce Miller (21st). There are 31 ranked runners in Region II.
Region III: It looks like this Region will advance four Class AA teams and two Class A teams. In Class AA, Nicholas looks to have the top spot. I have Shady Spring edging out PikeView by a point for the 2nd spot. I have Herbert Hoover taking the 4th spot, but that assumes Caleb Siders will be running, and he hasn't competed since 9/26. If he's out, they could still take the spot, but it would certainly provide an opening to Wyoming East. In Class A, Charleston Catholic has the top spot with Richwood the favorite for the 2nd spot, but like in another case, that's based on just the one ranked runner. Individually, I'm projecting 22 to advance. The current top 22 are Preston Prather, Braden Ward, Trey Stanley, Seth Crosier, Jaeden Holstein, Caleb Siders, Ethan Board, Lavon McClarrin, Logan Keaton, Jacob Ellison, Colton Meadows, Jack Haverty, Gage Damewood, Carson Hill, John Duvall, Alex Irvin, Levi Brake, Grey Hazuka, Jacob Bowman, Jared Sandy, Sam Jordan, and Josh Baldwin. Those within 60 points of the top 22 and not on an expected advacing team are Wyoming East's Tucker Cook (T25th), Oak Hill's Austin Bias (T25th), Webster's Devan Lawson (28th), Westside's Logan Vance (T35th), and Clay's Isaiah Spencer (37th). There are 37 ranked runners in Region III.
Region IV: It looks like this Region will advance two Class AA teams and three Class A teams. In Class AA, Winfield is far ahead of the field and not missing a perfect score by much. Wayne is likely to take the 2nd spot. For Class A to get three teams out, three of Buffalo, Calhoun, Sherman, and Tolsia must get five to the line. I think that will happen. I have Ravenswood taking the top spot with Williamstown not too far behind. Most likely to take the 3rd spot if it indeed materializes is Wirt. Individually, I'm projecting 17 to advance. The current top 17 are Matthew Scheneberg, Will Whaley, Deshone Cooper, Brian Middaugh, Jordon Thompson, Colin Simmons, Justin Legg, Isaiah Wikel, Jackson Sanders, Jacob Perry, Marshall Villers, Chance Thompson, Chase Thompson, Cody Smith, A.J. Petrovsky, Zach Cannon, and Andrea Skeens. One of those Winfield guys can't run (there are 8 in there), so that moves Alex Cockerham into the 17th spot (after removing yet another Winfield guy). Those within 60 points of the top 17 and not on an expected advancing team are Lincoln County's Luke Roberts (22nd) and Calhoun's Anthony Schoo (26th). There are 28 ranked runners in Region IV.