Meet:  		AAA Boys State Meet Predictions
Location:	Cabell Midland High School
Date:		To be held October 27, 2018

Predicted AAA Boys Team Results
Cabell Midland has sat atop the rankings pretty much all season. At one point, they were well ahead of the field. An injury to Brett Armbruster brought them back in range. He's back but certainly doesn't appear to be where he was, as would be expected given the length of time he was out. Regardless, I have them winning it by 20. I have University edging Hurricane for 2nd by just one point. Although I have Midland pretty far out front, it is not at all unreasonable to think that either University or Hurricane could jump up and win it. In fact, statistically, University had the best Regional run of the group, and the three were separated by just 6 points in the Regional conversions. It would be quite a surprise for anyone outside those 3 to make the podium. I have over a 30 point gap after Hurricane. I have Woodrow Wilson edging Parkersburg by a point for fourth, and either could slip into the top 3 with a good day or if someone is a little off. I have 7 teams that could crack the top 4.
1.  Cabell Midland       73
2.  University           93
3.  Hurricane            94
4.  Woodrow Wilson      125
5.  Parkersburg         126
6.  Wheeling Park       140
7.  Morgantown          150
8.  Hampshire           211
9.  Musselman           238
10. George Washington   247
11. Riverside           257
12. Spring Mills        260

Predicted Boys AAA Top 25
This was really difficult. I ended up going with Ronnie Saunders for the win. He split a pair of meetings with Josh Edwards on the season with Saunders winning the OVAC by 15 seconds and Edwards winning the Regional by 28 seconds. Saunders has a history of stepping up and running really well at State Meet events, and I'm using that history as my justification for the pick. I told Edwards in August at the Knight Night Relays that I thought he had a very legitimate shot to win it all, and that's certainly the case. He's been exceptional all season long and, of course, throttled Saunders at the Regional. Chris Barbera is the defending champion but has had a bit of an enigmatic season. It actually dates back into last year. After having a dominant 2017 Cross Country season, he decided he was done with running and didn't run track. He wasn't running at the beginning of the season, and I was told that he wasn't going to, and right after I removed him from the rankings, he showed up in a meet...and won it. Then he went to a big out-of-state meet and blew up. Supposedly, he was in the thick of things for a couple miles and fell apart. Then came the MSAC, and he wins it by 25 seconds. That's not exactly a shlub conference. Yes, I know the Hurricane crew pretty much tempoed the thing and that it was Birurakis' first race since September 8th, but still. He ran faster than Saunders did when he won the night race on September 1st. Then comes the Regional, and I don't know the story behind it, but he doesn't even place in the top 10 in the Region. So, I don't know what to expect. I think he's plenty capable of winning the whole thing again, but he's also the most likely to fall outside the top 10. Jacob Birurakis gets the nod for the 4th position. I don't feel like he's as fit as he was early in the season, and his MSAC run would put him behind the early season runs on the Midland course of Hanshaw, Core, Ball, and Lerose. He did clock a sub-16:00 on the Mineral Wells course, which is faster than any of the Regional IV guys did it at the Regional. I have Wyatt Hanshaw in the 5th spot. It's certainly quite possible he cracks the top 4 and conceivably the top 3. I have Justin Belcher slotted in the 6th position. He's been within 10 seconds of Hanshaw in each of their last three races. I put Sam Lerose in the 7th spot. His ranking only has him 10th, but he beat Belcher and was just 1 second behind Hanshaw at the Regional. Steven Ball gets the 8th spot. He also beat Belcher at the Regional, and outside a poor showing at the MSAC, has been really good all year. He's beaten Lerose all season until the last two meets. I moved Cole Friend up into the 9th position. He's still working back into form after an injury cost him the first half of his season. I fully believe, barring that injury, he was a championship contender for the season. I have Jackson Core taking the final spot. There have been a few meets where he wasn't impressive, but he had a really strong run here in September and beat Friend at the Regional, not to mention being less than 10 seconds behing Saunders. That leaves Benjamin Lake as the odd man out. Early in the season, I felt like he was a top 5 contender, but the last two meets have been a bit down. That being said, he could very well still end up as a top 5 guy. I'll also give Jonah Stevens a mention as well. I have him at #12, but he beat Lerose and Ball and the tempoing Hurricane guys to take 3rd at the MSAC. It's going to be a lot of fun to watch the race unfold.

The predicted top 25 is as follows. If you want to know where you are picked, just send me an e-mail, and I'll tell you.

Pick	Score	Name	 		Year	School
1	1	Saunders, Ronnie	12	Wheeling Park
2	2	Edwards, Josh		9	University
3	3	Barbera, Chris		12	Woodrow Wilson
4	4	Birurakis, Jacob	12	Geo. Washington
5	5	Hanshaw, Wyatt		11	Hurricane
6	6	Belcher, Justin		12	Hurricane
7	7	Lerose, Sam		10	Cabell Midland
8	8	Ball, Steven		12	Cabell Midland
9	X	Friend, Cole		11	Preston     
10	9	Core, Jackson		11	Morgantown
11	10	Lake, Benajmin		12	Parkersburg
12	11	Stevens, Jonah		11	Woodrow Wilson
13	12	Barnette, Keegan	10	Parkersburg
14	13	Edwards, Nathaniel	12	University
15	14	Gibson, Cooper		9	Cabell Midland
16	15	Gibson, Jackson		11	Cabell Midland
17	16	Angelos, Franklin	9	Parkersburg
18	17	Carson, Trevor		11	Riverside   
19	18	Casey, John		12	Hurricane
20	19	Lucas, Chris		11	Hampshire
21	20	Virji, Mikael		11	Morgantown
22	21	Palmer, Aiden		10	University
23	22	Henry, Chris		11	Woodrow Wilson
24	X	Pepper, Chase		9	Ripley     
25	23	McPherson, Bryer	12	Hurricane