Meet: AAA Boys State Meet Predictions
Location: Cabell Midland High School
Date: To be held October 27, 2018
Predicted AAA Boys Team Results
Cabell Midland has sat atop the rankings pretty much all season. At one point, they
were well ahead of the field. An injury to Brett Armbruster brought them back in range.
He's back but certainly doesn't appear to be where he was, as would be expected given
the length of time he was out. Regardless, I have them winning it by 20. I have University
edging Hurricane for 2nd by just one point. Although I have Midland pretty far out front,
it is not at all unreasonable to think that either University or Hurricane could jump up
and win it. In fact, statistically, University had the best Regional run of the group,
and the three were separated by just 6 points in the Regional conversions. It would be
quite a surprise for anyone outside those 3 to make the podium. I have over a 30 point
gap after Hurricane. I have Woodrow Wilson edging Parkersburg by a point for fourth,
and either could slip into the top 3 with a good day or if someone is a little off. I have
7 teams that could crack the top 4.
1. Cabell Midland 73
2. University 93
3. Hurricane 94
4. Woodrow Wilson 125
5. Parkersburg 126
6. Wheeling Park 140
7. Morgantown 150
8. Hampshire 211
9. Musselman 238
10. George Washington 247
11. Riverside 257
12. Spring Mills 260
Predicted Boys AAA Top 25
This was really difficult. I ended up going with Ronnie Saunders for the win.
He split a pair of meetings with Josh Edwards on the season with Saunders winning
the OVAC by 15 seconds and Edwards winning the Regional by 28 seconds. Saunders has
a history of stepping up and running really well at State Meet events, and I'm using
that history as my justification for the pick. I told Edwards in August at the Knight
Night Relays that I thought he had a very legitimate shot to win it all, and that's
certainly the case. He's been exceptional all season long and, of course, throttled
Saunders at the Regional. Chris Barbera is the defending champion but has had a bit
of an enigmatic season. It actually dates back into last year. After having a dominant
2017 Cross Country season, he decided he was done with running and didn't run track.
He wasn't running at the beginning of the season, and I was told that he wasn't going to,
and right after I removed him from the rankings, he showed up in a meet...and won it.
Then he went to a big out-of-state meet and blew up. Supposedly, he was in the thick of
things for a couple miles and fell apart. Then came the MSAC, and he wins it by 25
seconds. That's not exactly a shlub conference. Yes, I know the Hurricane crew pretty
much tempoed the thing and that it was Birurakis' first race since September 8th, but
still. He ran faster than Saunders did when he won the night race on September 1st.
Then comes the Regional, and I don't know the story behind it, but he doesn't even place
in the top 10 in the Region. So, I don't know what to expect. I think he's plenty capable
of winning the whole thing again, but he's also the most likely to fall outside the top
10. Jacob Birurakis gets the nod for the 4th position. I don't feel like he's as fit
as he was early in the season, and his MSAC run would put him behind the early season
runs on the Midland course of Hanshaw, Core, Ball, and Lerose. He did clock a sub-16:00
on the Mineral Wells course, which is faster than any of the Regional IV guys did it
at the Regional. I have Wyatt Hanshaw in the 5th spot. It's certainly quite possible
he cracks the top 4 and conceivably the top 3. I have Justin Belcher slotted in the
6th position. He's been within 10 seconds of Hanshaw in each of their last three
races. I put Sam Lerose in the 7th spot. His ranking only has him 10th, but he beat
Belcher and was just 1 second behind Hanshaw at the Regional. Steven Ball gets the 8th
spot. He also beat Belcher at the Regional, and outside a poor showing at the MSAC, has
been really good all year. He's beaten Lerose all season until the last two meets.
I moved Cole Friend up into the 9th position. He's still working back into form after an
injury cost him the first half of his season. I fully believe, barring that injury, he
was a championship contender for the season. I have Jackson Core taking the final spot.
There have been a few meets where he wasn't impressive, but he had a really strong run
here in September and beat Friend at the Regional, not to mention being less than 10
seconds behing Saunders. That leaves Benjamin Lake as the odd man out. Early in the
season, I felt like he was a top 5 contender, but the last two meets have been a bit down.
That being said, he could very well still end up as a top 5 guy. I'll also give Jonah
Stevens a mention as well. I have him at #12, but he beat Lerose and Ball and the tempoing
Hurricane guys to take 3rd at the MSAC. It's going to be a lot of fun to watch the
race unfold.
The predicted top 25 is as follows. If you want to know where you are
picked, just send me an e-mail, and I'll tell you.
Pick Score Name Year School
1 1 Saunders, Ronnie 12 Wheeling Park
2 2 Edwards, Josh 9 University
3 3 Barbera, Chris 12 Woodrow Wilson
4 4 Birurakis, Jacob 12 Geo. Washington
5 5 Hanshaw, Wyatt 11 Hurricane
6 6 Belcher, Justin 12 Hurricane
7 7 Lerose, Sam 10 Cabell Midland
8 8 Ball, Steven 12 Cabell Midland
9 X Friend, Cole 11 Preston
10 9 Core, Jackson 11 Morgantown
11 10 Lake, Benajmin 12 Parkersburg
12 11 Stevens, Jonah 11 Woodrow Wilson
13 12 Barnette, Keegan 10 Parkersburg
14 13 Edwards, Nathaniel 12 University
15 14 Gibson, Cooper 9 Cabell Midland
16 15 Gibson, Jackson 11 Cabell Midland
17 16 Angelos, Franklin 9 Parkersburg
18 17 Carson, Trevor 11 Riverside
19 18 Casey, John 12 Hurricane
20 19 Lucas, Chris 11 Hampshire
21 20 Virji, Mikael 11 Morgantown
22 21 Palmer, Aiden 10 University
23 22 Henry, Chris 11 Woodrow Wilson
24 X Pepper, Chase 9 Ripley
25 23 McPherson, Bryer 12 Hurricane