Meet:  		A-AA Boys State Meet Predictions
Location:	Cabell Midland High School
Date:		To be held October 27, 2018

Predicted A-AA Boys Team Results
This should be a nice battle. I have Winfield coming out on top, but just by 10 points. Fairmont Senior clearly had the superior Regional performance, so this could very easily go the other way. A lot will rest on the performance of Brian Middaugh. His Regional run was not good. I don't know the story behind that, but this set of picks assumes that he'll run up to his normal standard. He'll have to for Winfield to win it. I have Bridgeport as a distant 3rd, but it's not out of the question for them to win. I feel like they ran really well at their Regional, and it still left them in 3rd in the conversion, so I think a lot would have to go right for them to win it. Making the podium is a lot more realistic as only one of the the first two would have to have a bad day, but for both to do it is unlikely. I have over 30 points to the 4th place team, Ritchie, who is a very strong favorite to win the Class A title. I have Doddridge in 7th overall and taking the Class A runner-up spot, though Ravenswood is close behind, and if they duplicate their Regional run, they could easily take the spot.
1.  Winfield              65
2.  Fairmont Senior       75
3.  Bridgeport           104
4.  Ritchie              136
5.  Frankfort            184
6.  East Fairmont        188
7.  Doddridge            190
8.  Ravenswood           214
9.  Nicholas             253
10. Braxton              321
11. Tyler Consolidated   322
12. St. Marys            328
13. Wyoming East         330
14. Elkins               379
15. Tucker               406
16. Shady Spring         414
17. Oak Hill             463
18. Williamstown         479
19. Nitro                490
20. Richwood             568
21. Charleston Catholic  572

Predicted Boys A-AA Top 25
Aaron Withrow comes in as the heavy favorite to repeat as champion. No one in Class A-AA has seriously threatened him. A couple have been within 15 seconds or so. Carter Lipscomb has been very solid all season, and aside from Withrow, only one Class A-AA runner has beaten him all season, and he has typically won his meets by double digits. Tavian Richardson is only tied for 5th in the rankings, but aside from a blip at the Big 10 Championships, his 2nd half of the season has been really strong, capped by an excellent Regional run. Bryce Jarrell is ranked 3rd and has an early season win over Lipscomb to his credit. Noah Ward has been a bit up and down, but like last year, he's looking good late with a really good Regional run, and his State Meet performance last year certainly plays a role in this 5th place pick as he's only ranked 8th. I have Luke Wilson in the 6th spot. He had a brief rough patch mid-season where he lost 47 points in 2 meets, but he has rebounded well and finished just 2 seconds behind Jarrell at the Regional. I have Jackson Jacobs in the 7th spot. He's actually ranked 4th and beat Ward and Richardson at the Big 10 Championships, but they've both beaten him on the season as well. The bottom line for me is that I think the easier course is a hindrance to Jacobs. Cracking the top 5 certainly isn't out of order, but I do think a more difficult course would help him. I put Matthew Scheneberg in the 8th spot. He's tied for 5th in the rankings and has some very solid times to his credit and has beaten Richardson, Ward, Wilson, and Jacobs on the season, so moving up would certainly be quite possible. Caleb Carlson falls into the 9th slot. He beat Lipscomb in the season opener at St. Marys and has also beaten Richardson, Ward, and Jacobs. He's a top 5 threat if he runs well. I put Samuel Starkey in the 10th spot. He's had a couple duds on the season and certainly can't afford one of those here. He ran well at the Conference and Regional meets and performed well at the State Meet last year, so he gets the narrow nod over Spencer Corley. There is certainly opportunity for a guy or two to step up and slip into one of these 10 spots.
Pick	Score	Name			Year	Team
1	1	Withrow, Aaron		12	Winfield
2	2	Lipscomb, Carter	10	Doddridge
3	3	Richardson, Tavian	12	Fairmont Senior
4	4	Jarrell, Bryce		12	Ravenswood
5	X	Ward, Noah		11	Philip Barbour
6	X	Wilson, Luke		12	Point Pleasant
7	5	Jacobs, Jackson		11	Bridgeport
8	6	Scheneberg, Matthew	9	Winfield
9	7	Carlson, Caleb		12	Fairmont Senior
10	X	Starkey, Samuel		12	Robert C. Byrd
11	8	Corley, Spencer		10	Tyler Consol.
12	9	Thompson, Jordon	11	Winfield
13	10	Campbell, Caleb		12	St. Marys     
14	11	Jarrell, Blake		12	Ravenswood
15	X	Atkinson, Nathan	12	Oak Glen
16	12	Kincell, Eathan		11	Fairmont Senior
17	13	Cooper, Deshone		11	Ravenswood
18	14	Robinson, Cade		11	Bridgeport
19	X	Stalnaker, Thomas	12	North Marion
20	15	Middaugh, Brian		11	Winfield
21	16	Bee, Clayton		12	Ritchie     
22	17	Bee, Kent		11	Ritchie     
23	18	Saunders, Trevor	11	East Fairmont
24	19	Carr, Logan		11	Bridgeport
25	20	Dalonges, Zachary	12	Frankfort