Meet: A-AA Boys State Meet Predictions
Location: Cabell Midland High School
Date: To be held October 27, 2018
Predicted A-AA Boys Team Results
This should be a nice battle. I have Winfield coming out on top, but just by 10 points.
Fairmont Senior clearly had the superior Regional performance, so this could very easily
go the other way. A lot will rest on the performance of Brian Middaugh. His Regional
run was not good. I don't know the story behind that, but this set of picks assumes that
he'll run up to his normal standard. He'll have to for Winfield to win it. I have Bridgeport
as a distant 3rd, but it's not out of the question for them to win. I feel like they ran
really well at their Regional, and it still left them in 3rd in the conversion, so I think
a lot would have to go right for them to win it. Making the podium is a lot more realistic
as only one of the the first two would have to have a bad day, but for both to do it is
unlikely. I have over 30 points to the 4th place team, Ritchie, who is a very strong
favorite to win the Class A title. I have Doddridge in 7th overall and taking the Class
A runner-up spot, though Ravenswood is close behind, and if they duplicate their Regional
run, they could easily take the spot.
1. Winfield 65
2. Fairmont Senior 75
3. Bridgeport 104
4. Ritchie 136
5. Frankfort 184
6. East Fairmont 188
7. Doddridge 190
8. Ravenswood 214
9. Nicholas 253
10. Braxton 321
11. Tyler Consolidated 322
12. St. Marys 328
13. Wyoming East 330
14. Elkins 379
15. Tucker 406
16. Shady Spring 414
17. Oak Hill 463
18. Williamstown 479
19. Nitro 490
20. Richwood 568
21. Charleston Catholic 572
Predicted Boys A-AA Top 25
Aaron Withrow comes in as the heavy favorite to repeat as champion. No one in Class
A-AA has seriously threatened him. A couple have been within 15 seconds or so.
Carter Lipscomb has been very solid all season, and aside from Withrow, only one
Class A-AA runner has beaten him all season, and he has typically won his meets by
double digits. Tavian Richardson is only tied for 5th in the rankings, but aside
from a blip at the Big 10 Championships, his 2nd half of the season has been really
strong, capped by an excellent Regional run. Bryce Jarrell is ranked 3rd and has
an early season win over Lipscomb to his credit. Noah Ward has been a bit up and
down, but like last year, he's looking good late with a really good Regional run,
and his State Meet performance last year certainly plays a role in this 5th place
pick as he's only ranked 8th. I have Luke Wilson in the 6th spot. He had a brief
rough patch mid-season where he lost 47 points in 2 meets, but he has rebounded well
and finished just 2 seconds behind Jarrell at the Regional. I have Jackson Jacobs
in the 7th spot. He's actually ranked 4th and beat Ward and Richardson at the Big
10 Championships, but they've both beaten him on the season as well. The bottom line
for me is that I think the easier course is a hindrance to Jacobs. Cracking the top
5 certainly isn't out of order, but I do think a more difficult course would help him.
I put Matthew Scheneberg in the 8th spot. He's tied for 5th in the rankings and has
some very solid times to his credit and has beaten Richardson, Ward, Wilson, and Jacobs
on the season, so moving up would certainly be quite possible. Caleb Carlson falls
into the 9th slot. He beat Lipscomb in the season opener at St. Marys and has also
beaten Richardson, Ward, and Jacobs. He's a top 5 threat if he runs well. I put
Samuel Starkey in the 10th spot. He's had a couple duds on the season and certainly
can't afford one of those here. He ran well at the Conference and Regional meets
and performed well at the State Meet last year, so he gets the narrow nod over Spencer
Corley. There is certainly opportunity for a guy or two to step up and slip into
one of these 10 spots.
Pick Score Name Year Team
1 1 Withrow, Aaron 12 Winfield
2 2 Lipscomb, Carter 10 Doddridge
3 3 Richardson, Tavian 12 Fairmont Senior
4 4 Jarrell, Bryce 12 Ravenswood
5 X Ward, Noah 11 Philip Barbour
6 X Wilson, Luke 12 Point Pleasant
7 5 Jacobs, Jackson 11 Bridgeport
8 6 Scheneberg, Matthew 9 Winfield
9 7 Carlson, Caleb 12 Fairmont Senior
10 X Starkey, Samuel 12 Robert C. Byrd
11 8 Corley, Spencer 10 Tyler Consol.
12 9 Thompson, Jordon 11 Winfield
13 10 Campbell, Caleb 12 St. Marys
14 11 Jarrell, Blake 12 Ravenswood
15 X Atkinson, Nathan 12 Oak Glen
16 12 Kincell, Eathan 11 Fairmont Senior
17 13 Cooper, Deshone 11 Ravenswood
18 14 Robinson, Cade 11 Bridgeport
19 X Stalnaker, Thomas 12 North Marion
20 15 Middaugh, Brian 11 Winfield
21 16 Bee, Clayton 12 Ritchie
22 17 Bee, Kent 11 Ritchie
23 18 Saunders, Trevor 11 East Fairmont
24 19 Carr, Logan 11 Bridgeport
25 20 Dalonges, Zachary 12 Frankfort