Remember, this is only how it looks from the rankings heading into the regionals. This is not a prediction based on any analysis of races held during the season. If a team has fewer than five ranked runners, it is assumed that their first unranked runner would finish five places behind the last ranked runner, their second unranked runner would finish ten places behind the last ranked runner, etc. Runners run above and below their ranking in every meet, and the Regionals will be no different. The important thing is that if you have five runners, get them to the starting line. If you have seven, get them to the line. If you only have 3, get them on the line. Your region may be depending on you.
Region I: Under the new team advancement criteria, it looks like this Region will advance three Class AA teams and two Class A teams. For Class AA, it looks like Fairmont Senior is the team to beat. I have them with a 14 point edge over Berkeley Springs. East Fairmont holds the 3rd Class AA spot, just 2 points back. Frankfort will be a factor but will need things to go very well or for someone else to run poorly. In Class A, St. Marys looks to top the field with Ritchie holding the 2nd spot. Fortunately, in this Region, the five that are slated to advance are the top five overall in this projection. That won't always be the case. Individually, my best guess is that 20 will advance. The current top 20 are Erykah Christopher, Belle Harvey, Courtney Eddy, Erica Davis, Olivia Frye, Sophia Tomana, Carlina Jacquez, Jessie Higgins, Mackenzie Stanley, Gwynn Napier, Olivia Cress, Chaysie Barnes, Corinna Strietbeck, Taylor Mason, Abby Beeman, Karina Patel, Payton Gregory, Soffi Bee, Brooke Davison, and Chloe Britton. Patel has not competed since September 15th. If she's out, Bralynn Davis is next in line. Runner's within 60 points of the top 20 and not on an expected advancing team are Grafton's Meredith Maier (23rd), North Marion's Rya Frye (27th), Hundred's Rachel Snedden (28th), and Magnolia's Aubrey Hall (29th). There are 51 ranked runners in Region I.
Region II: This Region is likely to advance two Class AA teams and two Class A teams. In Class AA, Bridgeport is well ahead of the field. Elkins is the favorite for the 2nd spot. In Class A, Doddridge looks to hold the top spot with Tucker the most likely for the 2nd position. Individually, I'm projecting 13 to advance. The current top 13 are Julia Muller, Desirae Schoonover, Hannah Moore, Emma Campbell, Alexis Morici, Brooke Wagner, Emerson Grafton, Kate Falls, Allison Hess, Addison Berdine, Morgan Turner, Adelle Thrush, and Jaklin Schoonover. There is only one runner within 60 points of the top 13 that isn't already on an expected advancing team. That is Roane's Silken Harlen (14th). There are 37 ranked runners in Region II.
Region III: It looks like this Region may advance three Class AA teams and two Class A teams. It's a little shaky on both counts, though. In Class AA, I have 7 teams that could and should have five on the line. However, of those, one has yet to have 5 in any given meet, and another has only had five twice. One of them (Bluefield and Herbert Hoover) can fall through, but not both. In Class A, I only show two teams that have the potential to field five runners. One of those, Richwood, has 6 on the roster, but hasn't had five in a meet since September 5th. If they toe the line and complete the race, they'll advance. If not, to quote the movie "Highlander"...there can be only one. So, for Class AA, it looks like Nicholas and PikeView are pretty solid. The 3rd team, I have just two points between Clay and Herbert Hoover with Clay having the advantage. In Class A, it's Charleston Catholic with ease, and then Richwood if they can start and finish the race. This one makes it a little odd, as it could be that at the starting line, if Richwood has five, the teams will be told that two will advance. But if Richwood doesn't have 5 complete the race, only one team would have a team score. I'll leave that up to the WVSSAC to decide, but my assumption would be that Richwood would have to have 5 complete the race in order to advance. Anyway...individually, my best guess is that 15 will move on. The current top 15 are Erin O'Sullivan, Aubrie Custer, Caitlin Cowell, Michaela O'Dell, Alexa Hawkins, Erin Hoyer, Celina Humphrey, Britney Cochran, Madelyn Kilpatrick, Bree Moll, Danielle Roberts, Jillian Hager, Faith Lipscomb, Lauren Persinger, and Rileigh Mullins. Cowell has not competed since September 22nd. If she is still out, the next in line would be Cari Hively. There is only one Runner within 60 points of the top 15 (and I'll use the no-Cowell version for this). That is Liberty Raleigh's Brook Athey (17th). There are 23 ranked runners in Region III.
Region IV: This Regional should advance two Class AA teams and two Class A teams. In Class AA, Winfield is the dominant force, and Wayne is the clear favorite for the 2nd spot. In Class A, Williamstown is easily the top team. It looks like Buffalo has the edge for the 2nd spot. In Regions III and IV, so much is reliant on the positions of the unranked runners, that the team previews can be pretty shaky as it treats the unranked relatively equivalently when they may be wildly different. Individually, my best guess is that 13 advance. The current top 13 are Ella Hesson, Sydney Smith, Natalie Sawin, Savannah Hoff, Baylee Adkins, Sarah Lipscomb, McKenzie Moran, Grace Cole, Chloe Lightfritz, Emilee Ellison, Isabella Robinson, Hailey Wallace, Stellan Flanagin, and Maggie Bennett. I list 14 because Flanagin and Bennett are tied at the 13th spot. There are no runners within 60 points of these 14 that aren't on an expected advancing team. The closest is Point Pleasant's Allison Henderson (17th). There are 30 ranked runners in Region IV.