Meet: AAA Girls State Meet Predictions
Location: Cabell Midland High School
Date: To be held October 29, 2016
Predicted AAA Girls Team Results
This looks like it will be a route. There are never foregone conclusions, and that's why
we run the race, but University looks unstoppable. It's entirely possible that they could
place five on the podium. I have them at a miniscule 32 points. Morgantown looks like
a pretty solid 2nd place, as I show them 21 points up on 3rd place. I feel like they have
a fair amount of upward mobility as well, making it more likely for them to have a lower
score than a higher one. I have Parkersburg edging Cabell Midland for 3rd by just 5 points,
so that could obviously go either way. I feel like Midland has a litte more upside.
1. University 32
2. Morgantown 88
3. Parkersburg 104
4. Cabell Midland 109
5. Jefferson 157
6. Hurricane 174
7. Woodrow Wilson 186
8. Hampshire 189
9. Wheeling Park 193
10. Musselman 270
11. George Washington 295
12. Greenbrier East 331
Predicted AAA Girls Top 25
TaShala Turner doesn't sit at the top of the Rankings, but I think she's the clear favorite.
She and Hannah Lipps squared off at the beginning of the season, and Turner won the battle
by a full minute. Lipps has been very strong all season and looks to be a very solid
pick for 2nd. I put Olivia Collett and Madison Trippett in the next two spots. The two
have traded back and forth over the course of the season. Collett took two of the last three
meetings, so I gave her the nod. I moved Brooke Franklin into the 5th spot. She's been
strong all season and had an exceptional Regional Run. I have Beighley Ayers in 6th. She
edged Franklin at the MSAC and beat both Collett and Trippett at the St. Marys XC Festival.
She also exemplifies what a strong body of off-season work can do for you as she has increased
her ranking score by almost 300 points on the seasno (the equivalent of a 2 1/2 minute
improvement. Jessie Hogbin is the wildcard in the field. She has rarely ran against any
of the top competition. Lipps has beaten her soundly, and at the Interstate Classic, she
didn't fare well. But she has been a podium finisher in each of the last two seasons.
The 8th and 9th positions go to Peyton Kukura and Emma Williams, giving University 4 in
the top 10. At the OVAC Championships Kukura was less than 5 seconds behind Ayers and
Franklin, and she was only 7 seconds behind Franklin at the TRAC Championships. Williams
was very close to Kukura at the TRAC and beat her at the Regional. I put Ellie Dario in
the 10th spot, giving Parkersburg 3 of the top 10. That's a tenuous spot. Olivia Ward
has had some exceptional races, including thumping Dario at the St. Marys XC Festival.
And the more I look at it, the more I think I'm going to regret not putting Zoe Shetty
in the top 10, having beaten Kukura and Williams at the Regional after being right behind
them at the TRAC Championships.
The predicted top 25 are as follows. If you want to know where you are picked, just
send me an e-mail, and I'll tell you.
Place Score Name Year School
1 1 Turner, TaShala 11 University
2 2 Lipps, Hannah 11 Hampshire
3 3 Collett, Olivia 10 Parkersburg
4 4 Trippett, Madison 9 Parkersburg
5 5 Franklin, Brooke 12 University
6 6 Ayers, Beighley 11 Wheeling Park
7 X Hogbin, Jessie 12 Hedgesville
8 7 Kukura, Peyton 11 University
9 8 Williams, Emma 9 University
10 9 Dario, Ellie 9 Parkersburg
11 10 Ward, Olivia 10 Geo. Washington
12 11 Shetty, Zoe 9 University
13 X Herring, Abby 10 Park. South
14 12 Hatcher, Samantha 11 Morgantown
15 13 Ray, Danielle 9 Hurricane
16 14 Miller, Anya 10 Cabell Midland
17 15 Dombrowski, Amber 11 Morgantown
18 16 DiSaila, Isabella 9 Wheeling Park
19 17 Salmons, Jessica 10 Cabell Midland
20 18 Radabugh, Avigail 11 Morgantown
21 X Mayes, Winnie 10 Huntington
22 19 Mills, Gretchen 10 Cabell Midland
23 20 Garrett, Montana 12 Morgantown
24 21 Pratt, Vanessa 9 Jefferson
25 22 May, Morgan 11 Jefferson