Meet:  		A-AA Girls State Meet Predictions
Location:	Cabell Midland High School
Date:		To be held October 29, 2016

Predicted A-AA Girls Team Results
This should be the most hotly contested team race of the day with five teams having a very realistic shot at winning this thing. I only have 6 points separating the top 4 teams and the 5th only 15 points behind that. I ended up with Philip Barbour in the top spot. They were only the 6th ranked team heading into the Regional meets. Their position will very much hinge on the performances of Brianna Williams, Olivia Frye, and Katie Swick, who each ran very well at the Regional Meet. I have Berkeley Springs 2 points behind them. If Stephanie Golden is healthy and running "normally," they become the prohibitive favorite. She has really struggled the last two meets, presumably due to injury, and he availability and/or performance level are in doubt for the meet. I scored the meet with her in it, but not running anywhere near her prior level. The could win it, they could fall out of the top 5. I have Fairmont Senior in 3rd, just another 3 points back. Fairmont Senior has surged forward late in the season, largely due to the resurgence of Adriana Abruzzino. They've struggled a bit with inconsistency, and they'll need to run well as a group to take the title. I have Winfield in 4th, just one more point back. They got very strong Regional runs from Krissy Johns and Emma Elmore at the Regional. If they can duplicate those and get the typically strong runs from their front group, they can easily take this. Bridgeport is the less conventional contender. They don't have anyone near the top, but they have great depth. If they move up en masse 3 or 4 spots each, which is very doable, they can win it. This one should be great fun.
1.  Philip Barbour        105
2.  Berkeley Springs      107
3.  Fairmont Senior       110
4.  Winfield              111
5.  Bridgeport            126
6.  Nicholas              151
7.  East Fairmont         163
8.  Elkins                186
9.  Richwood              203
10. Doddridge             205
11. Charleston Catholic   244
12. Williamstown          279
13. PikeView              327

Predicted A-AA Girls Top 25
Unlike last year, there is a strong favorite, and it's the one who ended up running away with it last year. Jessica Melvin has been pretty dominant all season long. The field has been closing the gap, but still no one in this race has been closer than 15 seconds. Olivia Underwood has been strong all season long. She hasn't been beaten by anyone in the field except for Underwood. Madison Frame has also been consistently excellent. She's a little hard to place since she's only had one meeting with most of the top competition, and that was in early September, but she beat everyone in this field that was there that day. Amanda Lupton has really come on strong late in the season and historically runs very well at the State Meet. She is the one who was within 15 seconds of Melvin. Kierra Hodge has been very strong for much of the season and was just four seconds behind Lupton at the Regional Meet. Savannah Hoff has also been very consistently strong this season. Makenzie Moran has only ran one race this season (at least only one that I saw), but it was a pretty impressive 19:42 showing, just 6 seconds behind Hoff. Desirae Schoonover was 3rd last year, and has started to resemble that form late in the season. Olga Hawranick has been strong all season, but a couple dips late in the season dropped her a couple spots. She has beaten Hoff a couple times on the season. I gave Hannah Moore that final top 10 spot. She's been pretty solid all season. She'll have to fend off the late season surges of Kyleena Purvis and Caitlin Cowell. The top 10 possibilities go pretty deep.


Pick	Score	Name			Year	Team
1	1	Melvin, Jessica		11	Philip Barbour
2	2	Underwood, Olivia	12	Elkins     
3	3	Frame, Madison		12	Richwood
4	4	Lupton, Amanda		11	Berkeley Spr.
5	5	Hodge, Kierra		11	Philip Barbour
6	6	Hoff, Savannah		10	Winfield
7	X	Moran, Makenzie		10	St. Joseph    
8	7	Schoonover, Desirae	10	Doddridge
9	8	Hawranick, Olga		11	East Fairmont
10	X	Moore, Hannah		10	Liberty Harr.
11	X	Purvis, Kyleena		11	Keyser   
12	9	Cowell, Caitlin		10	Richwood
13	10	Stanley, Mackenzie	9	Fairmont Senior
14	11	Rittinger, Alyssa	12	Winfield
15	X	Bennett, Brooke		10	Lewis       
16	X	Delaney, Jordan		12	Magnolia     
17	12	Lumadue, Anna		11	Winfield
18	13	Abruzzino, Adriana	10	Fairmont Senior
19	X	Maddow, Emily		12	North Marion
20	14	Jacquez, Carlina	9	Fairmont Senior
21	15	Williams, Brianna	12	Philip Barbour
22	X	Beeman, Abby		10	Frankfort
23	X	LeMasters, Lavania	12	Robert C. Byrd
24	16	Martin, Lucianna	11	Nicholas   
25	X	Strietbeck, Corinna	10	Frankfort