Meet: AAA Boys State Meet Predictions
Location: Cabell Midland High School
Date: To be held October 29, 2016
Predicted AAA Boys Team Results
As always, this was really difficult. I've slotted everyone that I think will be
running. I've made some assumptions about who will be running, and that can
greatly effect the team scores. Make no mistake, this is going to be quite a
fight. I only have 7 points separating Cabell Midland and Morgantown. Midland
appears to be slightly better at the top. Morgantown has more depth. Midland
cannot afford an off day for anyone. Morgantown stepping up 2 places per runner
and they win it, and that is easily within reach. It's also possible that a
big time run from Mickael Virji will do it. He's shown that flash. Hurricane
has been maddeningly inconsistent. I've dropped them in 3rd. They could have a shot at the top 2,
and they could fall to 6th. University is slotted in 4th as I am assuming they
welcome the return of Geandre Jones, who is on their list of 10 for the meet.
I don't know for sure if he is running or not. I've assumed that he is and that
he is in reasonable shape. We'll see. Parkersburg could easily move into the
top 3. Woodrow Wilson would have a shot at the top 3 as well. They have been
dealing with some late season illness and some return from mid-season injury.
I don't know that they're 100%.
1. Cabell Midland 62
2. Morgantown 69
3. Hurricane 99
4. University 99
5. Parkersburg 105
6. Woodrow Wilson 127
7. Wheeling Park 186
8. Jefferson 201
9. St. Albans 251
10. Musselman 270
11. Spring Mills 295
12. Riverside 342
Predicted Boys AAA Top 25
I think this could be a really fun race. Phillip White is only ranked 3rd,
but I feel like he's the favorite. Unfortunately, he hasn't ran against
anyone else I have in the top 7, so a feeling is all I have to go by. I
went with Jacob Birurakis for 2nd. He's been strong all season, won the
early season meet at Midland, and snagged a podium position last year. I
put Chris Barbera in the 3rd spot. He has the top ranking and ran away from
Birurakis at the George Washington Invitational, but a late season illness
took him out of the MSAC Championships and relegated him to a 17:37 on a course
upon which he ran a 15:11 on earlier in the season. If he's back at 100%,
he's a threat to win, but an illness that sets you back that much can be difficult
to recover from, and it's probably more likely for him to fall down the list
than to rise. I put Russell Carroll in the 4th spot, but he's in much the
same boat as Barbera. I don't know the nature of his injury or illness, but
his performances at the Regional and especially the MSAC certainly give cause
for pause. The Regional performance wasn't abysmal, and it's possible that he
was pacing a teammate that finished right behind him. Carroll ran step for
step with Birurakis at the early season Midland meet before getting edged at
the line. If completely healthy, he's a threat to win as well. I went with
Austin Jordan for the 5th spot over teammate Coy Smith because Smith has won
the battle in 3 of the last four meets. Smith did win the Regional, and
convincingly so, and also won the battle at the early season meet at Midland.
I put Geandre Jones in the 7th spot. He's the wildcard in this thing. His
time from last year may well be good enough to win it this year. But can he
run that time? What kind of shape is he in? I don't even know 100% for sure
that he is running. I was simply afraid to drop him in any lower than this.
I put the Morgantown tandem of John Gullion and Andrew Christy into the next
two spots with Michael Gharib in the 10th position. These three are pretty
interchangeable. They've run against each other in the last three meets. In those
three meets, each of them came in 1st of the three once, 2nd once, and 3rd once.
I think the legitimate contenders for a top 10 spot goes past 20th.
The predicted top 25 is as follows. If you want to know where you are
picked, just send me an e-mail, and I'll tell you.
Pick Score Name Year School
1 1 White, Phillip 11 University
2 X Birurakis, Jacob 10 Geo. Washington
3 2 Barbera, Chris 10 Woodrow Wilson
4 3 Carroll, Russell 9 Hurricane
5 4 Jordan, Austin 12 Cabell Midland
6 5 Smith, Coy 12 Cabell Midland
7 6 Jones, Geandre 12 University
8 7 Gullion, John 12 Morgantown
9 8 Christy, Andrew 11 Morgantown
10 9 Gharib, Michael 11 University
11 10 Domenick, Ian 11 Parkersburg
12 11 Kominsky, Miles 10 Woodrow Wilson
13 12 Lemaster, Will 11 Parkersburg
14 X Ries, Ward 11 Preston
15 X Thomas, Samuel 12 Capital
16 13 Endres, Josh 12 St. Albans
17 14 Donnelly, Kevin 11 Morgantown
18 15 Barker, Scott 12 Parkersburg
19 16 Hathaway, Jonathan 12 Cabell Midland
20 17 Armbruster, Brett 10 Cabell Midland
21 18 Virji, Mikael 9 Morgantown
22 19 Rutan, Corbin 11 Wheeling Park
23 20 Gibson, Jackson 9 Cabell Midland
24 21 Casey, John 10 Hurricane
25 X Greear, Josh 12 So. Charleston