Meet: A-AA Boys State Meet Predictions
Location: Cabell Midland High School
Date: To be held October 29, 2016
Predicted A-AA Boys Team Results
Bridgeport again comes in as the favorite, but it's not a given. In Regional competition,
the conversions show that East Fairmont had the strongest Regional performance. Berkeley
Springs, now back with its full contingent of runners is very dangerous as well. With
another 9 days to get a little healthier, they can move up the charts. The question is,
how high? Winfield has some upward potential but isn't quite as deep. They cannot
afford for any of their top five to have an off day. I have St. Marys edging Elkins for
the 5th spot, which also would give them the inaugural Class A Team Championship. Elkins
had, statistically, the 4th best Regional performance.
1. Bridgeport 77
2. East Fairmont 96
3. Berkeley Springs 99
4. Winfield 109
5. St. Marys 140
6. Elkins 146
7. Nicholas 170
8. Doddridge 175
9. Ravenswood 182
10. Fairmont Senior 209
11. Shady Spring 300
12. Richwood 365
13. Charleston Catholic 371
14. Parkersburg Catholic 376
15. Buffalo 418
Predicted Boys A-AA Top 25
Aaron Withrow comes in as the heavy favorite. No one in the field has been closer than 17
seconds. The next four are a tossup. Jimmy Lacaria is the 3rd ranked runner and was the
closest to Withrow at the early Midland meet. He's been solid all season long. Jackson
Reed has the track speed pedigree that is beneficial to this course. Seth Backus is the
2nd ranked runner in the field, but Lacaria just beat him at the Regional, and at the
Bearcat Invitational, which featured him, Lacaria, Reed, and Ellis, they all beat him.
That's a month ago, though, and if Backus can run the way he did at the LKC Championships,
that 2nd spot is certainly there. Ellis is the real head-scratcher. He's a distant 5th
to these guys in the rankings, yet he's beaten Lacaria at the Big 10 Championships, the
Bearcat Invitational, and the Chick-Fil-A Invitational. He lost to Backus soundly at
the Ritchie Invitational. I have Hunter Riffle in the 6th position. He'll be having a
rare meet in which he doesn't have a football game the night before. I put Matt Chapman
in the 7th position. I would have had him as my runner-up prior to injuring his ankle
at the Bearcat Invitational. At the Regional, he was beaten by four guys that I don't
have ahead of him on this list. Dropping down the list is probably more likely than
rising, but I think he's dangerous. I moved Mark Duez into the 8th spot after a strong
Regional run. Bryce Jarrell gets the 9th spot. He tends to run very well on the quick
courses. I have Trey Heaster in the 10th spot. He holds the 8th spot in the rankings
and has beaten Jarrell in their last two meetings, but Duez just beat him soundly at the
Regional. Gage Clemens is certainly a threat as he's been coming on strong late in the
season and had an exceptional regional run to get the runner-up spot in that region and
secure a team spot for the Polar Bears. The big threats go almost 20 deep. These picks
got really difficult starting at about # 8 and from # 20 into the 40's there can be a
tremendous amount of movement.
Pick Score Name Year Team
1 1 Withrow, Aaron 10 Winfield
2 2 Lacaria, Jimmy 12 Bridgeport
3 3 Reed, Jackson 12 Nicholas
4 X Backus, Seth 12 Braxton
5 4 Ellis, Mark 11 East Fairmont
6 5 Riffle, Hunter 12 Doddridge
7 6 Chapman, Matt 12 Berkeley Spr.
8 7 Duez, Mark 11 Bridgeport
9 8 Jarrell, Bryce 10 Ravenswood
10 9 Heaster, Trey 12 Doddridge
11 10 Clemens, Gage 12 Fairmont Senior
12 11 Lumadue, Luke 11 Winfield
13 12 Hashman, Walker 11 St. Marys
14 13 Gorrell, Brady 11 St. Marys
15 X Alt, Derek 11 Frankfort
16 14 Jarrell, Blake 10 Ravenswood
17 15 Shetler, Steven 12 Berkeley Spr.
18 16 Kinney, Timmy 12 Bridgeport
19 17 Clark, Mason 11 Elkins
20 X Bunch, Corey 12 Liberty Harr.
21 18 Heironimus, Logan 11 Berkeley Spr.
22 X Canaday, Jesse 12 Sherman
23 X Armes, Trevor 12 Clay
24 19 Weese, Mason 12 East Fairmont
25 20 Cavanaugh, Trevor 9 East Fairmont