Remember, this is only how it looks from the rankings heading into the regionals. This is not a prediction based on any analysis of races held during the season. If a team has fewer than five ranked runners, it is assumed that their first unranked runner would finish three places behind the last ranked runner, their second unranked runner would finish six places behind the last ranked runner, etc. Runners run above and below their ranking in every meet, and the Regionals will be no different. The important thing is that if you have five runners, get them to the starting line. If you can come up with 7, get them on the line. Your region may be depending on you.
Region I: This Region looks like it will only advance two teams. If John Marshall or Brooke can come up with 5 runners, it can get three. University and Morgantown are well ahead of the field with University having a solid advantage for the Regional title. If a 3rd team does advance, it will be between Wheeling Park and Preston, and I show Wheeling Park having a 10 point advantage for that spot. Individually, only 10 will advance. The current top 10 are TaShala Turner, Beighley Ayers, Brooke Franklin, Peyton Kukura, Samantha Hatcher, Avigail Radabaugh, Emma Williams, Isabella DiSaila, Montana Garrett, and Zoe Shetty. Garrett didn't run in Morgantown's last two meets, so it's possible that she's not available. Amber Dombrowski is next in line for that spot. The only runner within 60 points not on an expected advancing team is Preston's Tori Carr (12th). There are 42 ranked runners in Region I.
Region II: This Region will also likely only advance 2 teams. The likelihood of getting 3 is less here than above. Jefferson and Hampshire appear to have pretty firm grips on those two spots. Musselman will be hoping one of them falter. Individually, only 10 will advance. The current top 10 are Hannah Lipps Jessie Hogbin, Blake Hull, Morgan May, Vanessa Pratt, Lilly Buckley, Catherine Wylie, Genevieve Sturrock, Jordan Phillips, and Grace Valentine. Runners within 60 points that aren't on expected advancing teams that will be looking to take a spot are Musselman's Aleynah Miller (11th) and Washington's Megan Carr (12th). Region II has 24 ranked runners.
Region III: This Region looks like it will advance 3 teams. Woodrow wilson is clearly in the front. George Washington and Greenbrier East look to have the advantage for the 2nd and 3rd spots. It looks like only 10 individuals will advance from this Region as well. The current top 10 are Olivia Ward, Faith Tharp, Maddy Childs, Alex Humphrey, Grace Henley, Laiken Griffith, Rachel Beck, Cami Wagner, Toni Prout, and Bailey McInturr. Prout hasn't competed since September 24th, so she may not be available. Caroline Holliday would be the next in line. Only Capital's Sophia Morgado (13th) is within 60 points of the top 10 and not on an expected advancing team. Region III has 16 ranked runners.
Region IV: This Region should advance three teams. There should be a fight between Parkersburg and Cabell Midland for the top spot. I have Parkersburg with a 6 point advantage, but Cabell Midland did just beat them at the MSAC Championships. Hurricane appears to have the advantage for the next position, but Ripley and Parkersburg South are waiting in the wings if Hurricane were to falter or not be at full strength. This region will also only advance 10 individuals. The current top 10 are Olivia Collett, Madison Trippett, Ellie Dario, Abby Herring, Danielle Ray, Jessica Salmons, Gretchen Mills, Anya Miller, Winnie Mayes, and Alexis Imperial. Ray missed the MSAC. If she isn't available, Cassidy Miller is next in line. Those within 60 points of the top 10 that aren't on an expected advancing team are Ripley's Cassidy Miller (11th), Ripley's MacKenzie Gillispie (12th), and Parkersburg South's Shannon Ruble (13th). There are 51 ranked runners in Region IV.