Remember, this is only how it looks from the rankings heading into the regionals. This is not a prediction based on any analysis of races held during the season. If a team has fewer than five ranked runners, it is assumed that their first unranked runner would finish three places behind the last ranked runner, their second unranked runner would finishe six places behind the last ranked runner, etc. Runners run above and below their ranking in every meet, and the Regionals will be no different. The important thing is that if you have five runners, get them to the starting line. If you have 7, get them to the line. Your region may be depending on you.
Region I: This Region should advance three teams. Morgantown appears to be the class of the Region. University looks to have a pretty solid grip on the 2nd spot. Wheeling Park looks to be the favorite for the 3rd position. Only 10 individuals will advance from this Region. The current top 10 are Phillip White, John Gullion, Andrew Christy, Kevin Donnelly, Michael Gharib, Corbin Rutan, Ward Ries, Vitaly Cuff, Mikael Virji, and Ronnie Saunders. Only Preston's Evan Thomas (15th) is within 60 points of the top 10 and not on an expected advancing team. There are 40 ranked runners in Region I.
Region II: This Region should also advance three teams. Jefferson is the big dog in the Region. Musselman appears to have a pretty solid hold on 2nd. The race is for the 3rd spot. I show Spring Mills with a 5 point advantage over Hampshire. Only 10 individuals will advance from this Region. The current top 10 are Nick Whitehair, Mason Young, Zane Braithwaite, Bryson Dolly, Colin Hayes, Samuel Garrett, Asher Personett, Hunter Reed, Zorin Robson, and Nathan Starkey. Those within 60 points of the top 10 and not on an expected advancing team are Washington's Nathan Walker (11th), Martinsburg's Josh Barnes (14th), Hampshire's Lance Blye (16th), and Hedgesville's Sebastian Morel (18th). There are 32 ranked runners in Region II.
Region III: It looks like this Region will advance three teams. Woodrow Wilson is far ahead of the field. Things are very tight after that. The positions of the unranked will largely determine the outcome. As calculated Capital gets the 2nd spot, just 1 point ahead of St. Albans, who is just 3 points ahead of Riverside who is just 6 ahead of George Washington. That is not the order that shook out at the MSAC. This one will be a fight for the 2nd and 3rd spots. Individually, the Region may advance 11. The current top 11 are Chris Barbera, Jacob Birurakis, Miles Kominsky, Josh Endres, Samuel Thomas, Jeb Brady, Ryan Vaught, Andrew Barbera, Josh Greear, Chris Henry, and Kevin Tate. There are no runners within 60 points of the top 11 that aren't on an expected advancing team. The closest is Riverside's Shawn Basham (12th). There are 20 ranked runners in Region III.
Region IV: This Region should advance three teams. Cabell Midland appears to be fairly locked into the top spot. I show Parkersburg with a slight advantage over Hurricane for the 2nd position, but that could certainly go the other way. It doesn't really look like anyone else has a shot. Individually, only 10 will advance. The current top 10 are Austin Jordan, Coy Smith, Russell Carroll, Will Lemaster, Ian Domenick, Jonathan Hathaway, Scott Barker, Brett Armbruster, Jackson Gibson, and Brayden Ray. Those within 60 points of the top 10 that aren't on an expected advancing team are Parkersburg South's Kerwyn Marshall (15th) and Ripley's Dalton Fisher (18th). There are 60 ranked runners in Region IV.