Remember, this is only how it looks from the rankings heading into the regionals. This is not a prediction based on any analysis of races held during the season. If a team has fewer than five ranked runners, it is assumed that their first unranked runner would finish three places behind the last ranked runner, their second unranked runner would finishe six places behind the last ranked runner, etc. Runners run above and below their ranking in every meet, and the Regionals will be no different. The important thing is that if you have five runners, get them to the starting line. If you have 7, get them to the line. Your region may be depending on you.
Region I: This Region will advance four teams and will serve as an example of the WVSSAC's need to carry further the team advancement. There may be 19 complete teams run in this Region, but the WVSSAC stops advancement at 4 teams. 6-9 teams advances 3, and 10 or more advances four. At the very least, a 5th team should advance here...and probably 6 if the advancement criteria were carried out. As it is, East Fairmont appears to be the favorite for the top spot. St. Marys looks to grab the runner-up position. I show Berkeley Springs in 3rd and Rtichie in 4th with Frankfort close behind hoping for a good day or for someone to falter. Berkeley Springs could be positively impacted by the return of either of a pair of injured runners who have been out for a while. I don't know if there is any chance of their return, but if they do, Berkeley becomes stronger. Individually, I'm projecting that 24 will advance. The current top 24 are Mark Ellis, Matt Chapman, Walker Hasman, Brady Gorrell, Gage Clemens, Derek Alt, Logan Heironimus, Clayton Bee, Hunter Kasekamp, Benjamin Ridgel, Ben Hart, Trevor Cavanaugh, Spencer Wren, Chase Sullivan, Aaron Farris, Quintin Thomas, Dominic Butler, Trevor Saunders, Cole Girod, Marcus Cole, Jayden Wolfe, Johnny Williams, Tyler Virtue, and Daniel Williams. There are a bunch of runners within 60 points of the top 24 and not on an expected advancing team that will be looking to snag a spot. They are Paw Paw's Zack Harrold (28th), Fairmont Senior's Zak Anderson (29th), Wheeling Central's Conner Calmbacher (30th), North Marion's Franklin Thomas (31st), Madonna's Angelo Quattrocci (32nd), Frankfort's Ryan Zirk (33rd), Philip Barbour's Nathan Baldwin (34th), Philip Barbour's Noah Ward (35th), Cameron's Zane Clutter (36th), Frankfort's AJ Aguallo (37th), Frankfort's Garrett Grose (38th), Oak Glen's Hunter Gorby (39th), Fairmont Senior's Alex Morris (40th), and Philip Barbour's Tyler Channell (42nd). There are 57 ranked runners in Region I.
Region II: This Region should advance three teams. If an extra team could find a way to get five on the line, a fourth could advance. Bridgeport looks to be the class of the field. Elkins appears to have an edge over Doddridge for the 2nd spot. Those three appear to have a gap on the rest of the field. Individually, I'm projecting that 15 will advance. The current top 15 are Seth Backus, Jimmy Lacaria, Hunter Riffle, Trey Heaster, Mark Duez, Corey Bunch, Mason Clark, Drake Colle, Kyle Stutler, Timmy Kinney, Bryce Childers, Coleton Marsh, Samuel Starkey, Dalton Hamrick, and Devan Ricottilli. There are no runners within 60 points of the top 15 that aren't on an expected advancing team. The closest is Braxton's Kaleb Brown (20th). There are 34 ranked runners in Region II.
Region III: This Region will almost assuredly advance four teams. Nicholas County is easily the strongest in the field. Things are very tight after that. The positions of the unranked runners will be the deciding factors. As calculated though, I show Shady Spring in 2nd with Oak Hill in 3rd and Clay County in 4th. Individually, I'm projecting that 19 will advance. The current top 19 are Jackson Reed, Juvenal Perez, Trevor Armes, Justin Cochran, Dylan Repass, Isaac Sergeon, Zachary Webb, Daniel Baldwin, Colt Halstead, Matthew Hopkins, Korbin Taylor, Kyle Barker, Dawson Vincent, Seth Buckland, Mathew Casey, Nicholas Cox, Brandon Daniels, Grey Hazuka, and Levi Brake. Buckland hasn't competed since September 24th. If he is unavailable, that probably moves Westside into an advancing position. There are no runners within 60 points of the top 19. As there are only 19 ranked runners in the Region, there is no "next closest." There are 19 ranked runners in Region III.
Region IV: This Region will likely advance four teams. There are three on the list that look like they only have 5 on the roster. If two of them don't come through, the region will drop to three advancing teams. Winfield is far ahead of the field. Ravenswood appears to have a firm grasp on the 2nd position. Williamstown is the favorite for the 3rd spot with Parkersburg Catholic having a narrow edge over Point Pleasant and Buffalo for the 4th spot. Individually, I'm projecting that 16 will advance. The current top 16 are Aaron Withrow, Luke Lumadue, Bryce Jarrell, Blake Jarrell, Ethan Beck, Matt Durgin, Luke Wilson, Chris Murray, Will Whaley, Quinton Fleming, Jordon Thompson, Jonathan Kammerer, Yogi Tomasch, and Ross Armstrong. Only 14 are listed because only 14 are ranked in the Region. There are 14 ranked runners in Region IV.