Remember, this is only how it looks from the rankings heading into the regionals. This is not a prediction based on any analysis of races held during the season. If a team has fewer than five ranked runners, it is assumed that their first unranked runner would finish five places behind the last ranked runner, their second unranked runner would finish ten places behind the last ranked runner, etc. Runners run above and below their ranking in every meet, and the Regionals will be no different. The important thing is that if you have five runners, get them to the starting line. Your region may be depending on you.
Region I: This Region should advance three teams. We're again looking at a fight between University and Morgantown. Statistically, Morgantown has the upper hand, but University did take the convincing win at the OVAC Championships and has given away quite a few ranking points by tempo-running a couple meets. Regardless, those two teams seem very safe. The battle for 3rd could be pretty close. It looks like Preston has the upper hand. I show them 12 points ahead of Parkersburg South and 22 points ahead of Parkersburg. Individually, it looks like there will be only 10 advancers. If Brooke gets 7 to the line, the Region could advance 11. The current top 11 are Olivia Collett, Skylar Brooks, TaShala Turner, Abby Herring, Allison Currey, Tori Carr, Lindsay Scheffel, Samantha Hatcher, Mikaila Mitchell, Avigail Radabaugh, and Nicole Ridgely. The only runner within 60 points of these 11 and not on an expected advancing team is Parkesburg's Mary Catherine Bolton (17th). There are 63 ranked runners in Region I.
Region II: This Region should also advance 3 teams. Hampshire is the solid favorite for the top spot. Jefferson looks pretty solid for 2nd. In the battle for the 3rd spot, I have 3 teams within 13 points. I show Elkins 4 points ahead of Musselman for the 3rd spot. I have Lewis another 9 points back, but they haven't run a complete team since September 26th. My best guess is that 12 individuals will advance from this region. The current top 12 are Abby Colbert, Hannah Lipps, Jessie Hogbin, Olivia Underwood, Kelsey Mowery, Emily Louk, Morgan May, Brooke Bennett, Catherine Wylie, Morgan Roahc, Hallie Williams, and Grace Valentine. Those within 60 points that aren't on an expected advancing team are Washington's Megan Carr (13th), Spring Mills' Blake Hull (17th), and Musselman's Sydney Rigsby (18th). Region II has 31 ranked runners.
Region III: This Region also looks like it will advance 3 teams. Woodrow wilson looks to be pretty solidly in the front. Capital appears to be the 2nd team in. I show them 12 points ahead of George Washington. I have Greenbrier East in the mix as well, just 5 points behind George Washington. I am projecting 12 individuals to advance from this Region. That's a tenuous 12, though as I only have it at 12 by one runner. The current top 12 are Maddy Childs, Kelly Longanacre, Riley Simmerman, Olivia Ward, Mary Keeton Lane, Erica Hegele, Sophia Morgado, Larissa Tyree, Taylor Wills, Raechyl Beard, Faith Tharp, and Cami Wagner. There are no runners within 60 points that aren't on a projected advancing team. The closeest is Princeton's Aalyiah Hairston (19th). Region III has 22 ranked runners.
Region IV: This Region should advance three teams. However, two of Point Pleasant, Lincoln County, St. Albans, and Spring Valley must get five to the starting line. Three of those teams have not done so in October. This projection is based on them coming through. Hurricane appears to have a pretty solid grip on the top spot. I show Winfield 3 points ahead of Cabell Midland for the 2nd spot. However, Cabell Midland did just beat them soundly at the MSAC Championships. No one else is close to those three. Individually, it looks like only 10 will advance. The current top 10 are Anna Gordon, Rachel Englund, Jenna Crouch, Savannah Hoff, Abbie Short, Kennedy Snavely, Kate Halkia, Jessica Salmons, Kasee Smith, and Gretchen Mills. There are no runners within 60 points of these 10 that aren't on an expected advancing team. The closest is Huntington's Allison Dempsey (17th). There are 40 ranked runners in Region IV.