Now that the new classifications for the next four years have been revealed, it's time to examine what may happen to the Regional landscape. The below commentary assumes that the current four region format will be maintained. I have no inside information. You know everything I do. This is just speculation and analysis.
Class AAA
A lot of the movement of teams dropping from Class AAA to Class AA was from
Region IV. Based on last year's alignment, if they made no changes, Regions
I, II, and III would have 8 teams and Region IV would have only 5. So, obviously
there will be some shifting. The natural assumption is that they will try to
work it so that three Regions will have 7 teams and one has 8 teams.
Scenario 1 - Preston leaves Region I leaving this Region with 7 teams. Preston goes into Region II, giving that Region 9. Someone has to go. That would be Buckhannon-Upshur. BU moves to Region 3, giving them 9. Two need to move over to Region IV. That would be Ripley and South Charleston.
Scenario 2 - Parkersburg and Parkersburg South move down to Region IV. That drops Region I with 6. Someone has to move in. That is probably Buckhannon-Upshur. That gives Region I, II, and IV 7 teams and Region III 8 teams.
Scenario 3 - Region I is left alone with 8 teams. Buckhannon-Upshur drops to Region III as the outlier from Region II. That leaves Region II with 7 and puts 9 in Region III. Two still needed in Region IV. That moves over Ripley and probably South Charleston, leaving 7 in Region III and Region IV.
Scenario 4 - Region IV has five, so they need at least two. The two closest would actually be South Charleston and George Washington. Move them over. Now Region III only has 6. They need another. The closest would be Buckhannon-Upshur. The other two remain static.
Scenario 5 - Parkersburg, Parkersburg South, and Ripley move to Region IV. Region IV now has 8. Region I is down to 6 and needs another. The most likely would be Buckhannon-Upshur. Region I now has 7. Region II and Region III are at 7.
What's the most likely...I don't know. Probably something else entirely.
Region I - Possible move candidates are Preston, Parkersburg, and Parkersburg South.
Region II - The only real candidate to move is Buckhannon-Upshur
Region III - Possible move candidates are Ripley, South Charlesotn, George Washington
Region IV - The five currently in need to stay.
So, I think the most likely may well be Scenario 5. It doesn't make a lot of sense to move Parkersburg and Parkersburg South to Region IV and not move Ripley since they would have to drive past Ripley to get to the Region IV schools. Of course, they would pretty much drive past South Charleston as well.
What might make the most sense is switching to a three region alignment, but I was told several years ago that the WVSSAC wouldn't consider such a thing. However, there are different people making those decisions now, so it could be on the table.