Now that the new classifications for the next four years have been revealed, it's time to examine what may happen to the Regional landscape. The below commentary assumes that the current four region format will be maintained. I have no inside information. You know everything I do. This is just speculation and analysis.
Class A-AA
With 9 teams dropping down from AAA, the landscape definitely changes. The biggest question
is how the WVSSAC will determine the number of teams for each Region. The question
arises because there were several teams listed in the Interscholastic Regional breakdown
for this year that didn't actually compete. Some haven't competed for years, but they're
still on the list. For purposes of this analysis, I'm going to assume that everyone listed
on this year's Interscholastic will be included in the next alignment assignments.
We'll start by taking those that dropped down and place them in their corresponding A-AA Region. That gives us 18 teams in Region 1, 22 in Region II, 17 in Region III, and 21 in Region IV. That's 78 total teams. I suppose the easy thing is to just leave everything alone and let the chips fall where they may...but where's the fun in that. So, I'll go on the premise that we want two regions with 20 and two with 19.
Region I - The biggest outliers are Webster and Braxton.
Region II - The biggest outliers are Pocahontas, Trinity, and Lewis
Region III - The biggest outliers are Richwood and Van
Region IV - The biggest outliers are Wirt, Ravenswood, Calhoun, Gilmer, Nicholas, Clay
and Logan.
Scenario 1 -
If you look at the geography, Braxton and Webster really don't seem like they belong in Region
I, so we take them out. That drops this Region to 16. Trinity Christian's Morgantown
location may make them the most likely to move. The next most likely candidates would either
probably Wirt County and Liberty Harrison. Let's move those three. That's 19. That took
two out of Region II, which drops it to 20. Region III has 17, so it needs at least two.
Move Webster and Nicholas to Region III. That's 19. Braxton moves over to Region IV. That's 20.
Scenario 2 -
All current Region I teams stay put. Trinity moves over from Region II. That's 19 in Region I.
Region II still has 21. Pocahontas moves to Region III. That's 20. Region III is up to
18. Put Nicholas in Region III. That's 19. Nicholas out of Region IV drops them to 20.
Scenario 3 -
Region I adds Trinity. Pocahontas to Region III. Logan and Nicholas to Region III.
That gives 19 in Region 1, 20 in Region II, 19 in Region III, and 20 in Region IV.
Scenario 4 -
Webster out of 1. That drops them to 17. Add Wirt and Ravenswood. Region I has 19.
Region 2 sends Pocahontas and Lewis to Region III. That drops them to 20. Region III
is at 19. Region IV is at 20.
Scenario 5 -
Webster and Braxton move out of Region I. Webster goes into Region III
and Braxton goes into Region IV. Trinity, Wirt, and Ravenswood move into Region I.
Pocahontas moves to Region III. That leaves Region I with 19. Region III is at 19.
Region II is at 20. Region IV is at 20.
Scenario 6 - Webster moves out of Region I. Lewis County and Trinity move to Region I.
That's 19 in Region 1 and 20 in Region II. Two would need to move from Region IV to
Region III. Call it Logan and Nicholas.
I don't know. No matter what, there are some teams that appear to be traveling a lot.
Here is an interesting thought. Several years ago (15 or so), we have 5 Regions for Cross Country. If the alignment were to match the WVSSAC administrative districts, we'd have
Region I -
Oak Glen, Weir, Wheeling Central, Bishop Donahue, Cameron, Magnolia, Paden City,
Tyler Consolidated, Doddridge, North Marion, Fairmont Senior, East Fairmont, Lincoln,
Liberty Harrison, Robert C. Byrd, Bridgeport, Notre Dame, South Harrison, Gilmer, Calhoun,
Grafton - 21
Region II -
Clay-Battelle, Trinity, Philip Barbour, Elkins, Pickens, Pendleton, Tucker,
Union, Moorefield, East Hardy, Keyser, Frankfort, Berkeley Springs, Paw Paw = 14
Region III -
Lewis, Braxton, Nicholas, Richwood, Clay, Roane, Sissonville, Herbert Hoover,
Nitro, Charleston Catholic, Buffalo, Winfield, Poca, Sherman, Scott, Van = 16
Region IV -
St. Marys, Ritchie, Williamstown, Wirt, Ravenswood, Point Pleasant, St. Joseph,
Lincoln County, Wayne, Tolsia, Logan = 11
Region V -
Pocahontas, Webster, Greenbrier West, Fayetteville, Oak Hill, Liberty Raleigh,
Greater Beckley Christian, Shady Spring, Independence, PikeView, Blufield, Mount View,
River View, Westside, Wyoming East, Mingo Central = 16
OK. So that doesn't really work. Very unbalanced in numbers. If it were to be balanced, there would need to be 3 regions with 16 and 2 with 15. To make it work, you'd really have to blow things up.
Here's one shot at it.
Region I -
Oak Glen, Weir, Wheeling Central, Bishop Donahue, Cameron, Magnolia, Paden City,
Tyler Consolidated, Doddridge, North Marion, Fairmont Senior, East Fairmont, Clay-Battelle,
St. Marys, Williamstown, Ritchie = 16
Region II -
Paw Paw, Berkeley Springs, Frankfort, Keyser, Union, Tucker, Trinity, Grafton,
Pendleton, Elkins, Philip Barbour, East Hardy, Moorefield, Pickens, Grafton = 15
Region III -
Lincoln, Liberty Harrison, Robert C. Byrd, Bridgeport, Notre Dame, South
Harrison, Lewis, Gilmer, Braxton, Webster, Nicholas, Richwood, Pocahontas, Clay, Greenbrier
West = 15
Region IV -
Wirt, Calhoun, Ravenswood, Roane, Point Pleasant, Buffalo, Winfield, Poca,
St. Joseph, Lincoln County, Wayne, Tolsia, Sissonville, Herbert Hoover, Nitro, Charleston
Catholic = 16
Region V -
Sherman, Scott, Van, Mingo Central, Westside, Wyoming East, Mount View, River
View, Logan, Fayetteville, Oak Hill, Liberty Raleigh, Shady Spring,
Greater Beckley Christian, PikeView, Bluefield = 16
I'll throw out one more possibility. If there was going to be a push to split Class A into its own division, this would probably be the time. There are 38 schools on the current participation survey.
I'll take one stab at that as well.
I count 40 AA teams, so I'm putting 10 in each Region.
Class AA
Region I -
Fairmont Senior, North Marion, East Fairmont, Weir, Oak Glen, Robert C. Byrd,
Bridgeport, Liberty Harrison, Lincoln, Roane
Region II -
Lewis, Braxton, Elkins, Berkeley Springs, Philip Barbour, Keyser, Grafton,
Frankfort, Nicholas, Clay
Region III -
Oak Hill, Shady Spring, Mingo Central, PikeView, Bluefield, Westside,
Independence, Liberty Raleigh, Wyoming East, River View
Region IV -
Lincoln County, Winfield, Herbert Hoover, Nitro, Logan, Point Pleasant, Wayne,
Scott, Sissonville, Poca
The WVSSAC may not be married to equivalent numbers in the Regions, which would make things easier because Nicholas and Clay in Region II is a reach. Clay in IV and Nicholas in III makes more sense, but that would leave Region II with 8. You could easily move one of the Marion County schools or one of the Harrison County schools to Region II, but it's hard to separate them from each other. Based on location, if a Marion school moved, it would probably be East Fairmont, if a Harrison County school moved, it would probably be Bridgeport.
I count 38 schools, so I'll go with 2 regions have 10 and 2 having 9.
Class A
Region I -
Tyler Consolidated, Magnolia, St. Marys, Wheeling Central, Cameron, Clay-Battelle,
Paden City, Bishop Donahue, Trinity, Ritchie
Region II -
Moorefield, South Harrison, Tucker, Pendleton, East Hardy, Notre Dame, Union,
Paw Paw, Pickens, Doddridge
Region III -
Webster, Pocahontas, Mount View, Sherman, Greenbrier West, Richwood,
Fayetteville, Van, Greater Beckley Christian
Region IV -
Williamstown, Ravenswood, Tolsia, Buffalo, Wirt, Calhoun, Gilmer, Charleston
Catholic, St. Joseph
Again, all of this goes out the window if they go with an updated participation survey based on actual 2015 participation. That changes the numbers in each division and could thereby shake things up pretty dramatically.