Remember, this is only how it looks from the rankings heading into the regionals. This is not a prediction based on any analysis of races held during the season. If a team has fewer than five ranked runners, it is assumed that their first unranked runner would finish five places behind the last ranked runner, their second unranked runner would finishe ten places behind the last ranked runner, etc. Runners run above and below their ranking in every meet, and the Regionals will be no different. The important thing is that if you have five runners, get them to the starting line. Your region may be depending on you.
Region I: This Region should advance four teams with 13 teams having run complete at some point this season. Williamstown appears to have a pretty solid grip on the top spot, and Oak Glen looks pretty comfortably in the 2nd spot. I show Doddridge and Braxton separated by just 8 points in the fight for 3rd. However, there are 9 teams actually within striking distance of the 4th spot. The performance of the unranked runners will likely be what tells the tale. Individually, the current top 10 includes Kelsey Chambers, Cami Mosser, Felicity Nolder, Megan Carder, Samantha Stout, Amber Watson, Taylor Trowbridge, Rena Reid, Andrea Chidester, and Allie Robinson. Runners within 90 points of the top 10 that aren't on an expected advancing team that will be fighting for a spot are St. Marys' Alex Gorrell (12th) and East Fairmont's Mikayla Moore (16th). There are 45 ranked runners in Region I, all of whom would be expected to advance in Region III.
Region II: This Region should advance three teams. Philip Barbour appears to have the top spot, even if Katie Mahoney is still out. Frankfort and Berkeley Springs look to battle it out for the 2nd spot. I show Frankfort taking the spot by 3 points. Grafton, Trinity, and Tucker will be trying to fight into one of those spots if Frankfort or Berkeley Springs falters. Individually, the current top 10 includes Alicia Parsons, Danielle Haynes, Kinsey Reed, Marissa Long, Montana Garrett, Julianna Butcher, Lavania LeMasters, Allison Villers, Piper McLaughlin, and Katie Mahoney. Runners within 90 points of the top 10 that aren't on an expected advancing team that will be fighting for a spot are Liberty Harrison's Hannah Ramirez (11th), Bridgeport's Rachel Fulks (12th), and Tucker's Madison Mullenax (13th). There are 41 ranked runners in Region II, all of whom would be expected to advance in Region III.
Region III: This region should advance two teams. There are only three teams that have run complete squads at any point this year. PikeView should have an easy time of it with Richwood and Westside fighting for the 2nd spot. Richwood appears to have the advantage. I can't give a current top 10 because there are only six ranked runners in Region III. The current top six is Amelia Sebok, Katelyn Odle, Sophie Klein, Lauren Hatfield, Madison Frame, and Kaylin Kessinger. There are no other ranked runners hoping to take an individual spot. Obviously some will. There are 6 ranked runners in Region III.
Last year, Region I had 95 participants in the girls' race. Region III had 24. Yet still, 10 individuals got to advance from each region. So, 41.7% of the runners got to advance as individuals in Region III while only 10.5% got to advance from Region I. It's time to tier the individual advancement in a manner similar to the team advancement. It would be far more equitable.
Region IV: This Region can advance three teams. There are 7 teams that have ran complete, so there is a little wiggle room. Roane or Tolsia will have to make sure they toe the line as a complete team. Charleston Catholic looks to have a prety solid grip on the top spot. Ravenswood and Scott should battle for 2nd. I show Ravenswood taking the spot by 6 points. Nicholas will be hoping one of those teams falter. The current top 10 includes Hailey Miller, Taylor Treadway, Kylie Rutherford, Payton Mullen, Sheena Chambers, Aidan Payton, Hannah Gacek, Peyton Keener, Samantha Graffius, and Taylor Love. There is just one runner within 90 points of the top 10 who is not on an expected advancing team that will be trying to jump into an individual position. That runner is Nicholas' Erica Logar (13th). There are 24 ranked runners in Region IV.