Remember, this is only how it looks from the rankings heading into the regionals. This is not a prediction based on any analysis of races held during the season. Runners run above and below their ranking in every meet, and the Regionals will be no different. The important thing is that if you have five runners, get them to the starting line. Your region may be depending on you.
Region II: This region will advance four teams if everyone brings a full lineup to the meet. Robert C. Byrd has been without a complete team on numerous occasions, but they do have the numbers. The fourth advancing team likely depends on them. Jefferson is way out there on the rest of the field. Hampshire looks like a solid second. Musselman, Elkins, and Buckhannon-Upshur should battle for the final two spots. I have Musselman slightly ahead of Elkins with B-U just off the pace. All three are within 8 points. At the Times Invitational, Musselman beat Elkins by 1 point, and Buckhannon was well behind both. Individually,the current top 10 includes Cory Hampshire, John Binotto, Brandon Doughty, Ben Proudfoot, Kory Farmer, Tommy Boone, Justin Miller, Josh Davis, Nathan Whitacre, and Jay Martin. Those needing to step up include Bridgeport's Matt Mason (13th), Martinsburg's Khiry Timbers (14th), and Bridgeport's Seth Edgell (15th). Those runners are within 60 points of the top 10 and aren't already on an expected qualifying team. There are 44 ranked runners in Region II.
Region III: It looks like this regional will only advance two teams. If Nitro has runners out there that they have been hiding, the region could advance three, but I've only seen three different guys for Nitro. St. Albans clearly has one of the spots. For the other, it looks like George Washington has the edge over Greenbrier East. Individually, the current top 10 includeds David Caldwell, Caleb Ellis, David Osborne, Bradley Dugan, Andy Bailey, Jordan O'Dell, Thomas Osborne, Luke Teel, Chris Pratt, and Anthony Hancock. Those trying to steal a spot from those ranked ahead of them include Greenbrier East's Mason Haynes and Josh Whitt (11th and 12th, respectively). They are the only runners within 60 points of the top 10 that aren't already on an expected qualifying team. There are 18 ranked runners in Region III.
Region IV: This region should advance three teams. Cabell Midland and Winfield look like easy qualifiers. I have Parkersburg in the third position, but Parkersburg South, Hurricane, and Huntington all have very legitimate shots. Individually, the current top 10 includes Trey Beckett, Matt Burton, Dustin Meyers, Darius Hadi-Sadegh, Luke Finley, Preston Whitney, Patrick Jividen, Michael Niemann, Dustin Stewart, and Corey Miller. Those looking to take spots away include Hurricane's Caleb Bowen (13th), Parkersburg South's Garrett Lynch (t15th), and Spring Valley's Morgan Ferguson (t15th). Those runners are within 60 points of the top 10 and aren't already on an expected qualifying team. There are 53 ranked runners in Region IV.
Region II: This region should advance three teams. It appears that Berkeley Springs, Philip Barbour, and Grafton are pretty solidly in those positions. Keyser and Tucker could be a factor if they have great days. Individually, the current top 10 includes Lenny Roach, John Mundey, David Rhodes, Drew Woodford and Riley Freeman (tied), Johnny Macklen, Jake Wise, Cory Yarrington, Chris Toompas, and John King. Those trying to take a spot in the top 10 include Lincoln's Vinny DeMarco (12th) and Keyser's Ryan Shreve (13th). They are the only runners within 60 points of the top 10 who aren't already on an expected qualifying team. There are 26 ranked runners in Region II.
Region III: It looks like this region will only advance two teams. It can advance three if everyone who has five runners brings them. The seventh team that fits that criteria is Bluefield. They do have five runners on their roster, so it is a possibility, but they've run so few meets, it's hard to tell. PikeView and Richwood are the class of the Region and should advance easily. If that third team gets to go, it looks like Webster has a slight edge over Oak Hill, Independence, and Shady Spring. Individually, the current top 10 includes Skyler McCoy, Brent Roark, Jordan Weitzel, Derrick Chaffin, Andrew Shaffer, David Coburn, Charles Bard, Emmet Rogers, Ryan Farmer, and Scotty Treadway. Looking to sneak in will be Independence's Isaac Cales (11th) and Shady Spring's Aaron Halstead (13th). They are the only runners within 60 points that are not on an expected qualifying team. There are 13 ranked runners in Region III.
Region IV: It looks like this region will only advance two teams. Ravenswood is easily the favorite. The second advancing team may be dependent on whether or not Robert Dolin runs for Scott. From what I've seen, he's only run one race this year, and that was on September 20th. If he runs, Scott probably advances in a close one. If he doesn't, Charleston Catholic probably moves on. For purposes of this preview, I'm assuming that he won't run, which would put Charleston Catholic into the qualifying spot. Individually, the current top 10 includes Nathan Rees, Alex Cole, Chase Nelson, Derek Murray, Randy Price, Matt Knowlton, Robert Dolin, Tony Majestro, Jordan Seabolt and Ben Schindler (tied). If Dolin doesn't run, that moves Andrew Blair into the top 10. Those looking to step up into an advancing spot include Calhoun's Justin Gerwig (12th) and Wayne's Forest Reed (13th). Those are the only runners within 60 points of the top 10 that are not on an expected qualifying team. There are 18 ranked runners in Region IV.